So what alternatives are to x86? A bit of OpenPOWER...

[jhu]

I have been digging out info about the Itanic fiasco, since articles and discussions from that era are always an interesing and fun read.
Intel didn't actually beat the other CPU architectures from the bottom, it was a sort of physiological maneuver that somehow snowballed. Merely by Intel announcing Itanium, the competing makers adjusted their roadmaps and stopped developing their architectures as if they were expecting that Itanium would take over the world. Is like if they believed that resistance was futile, so nearly fully stopped their efforts. It may be related to the fact that everyone knew that Intel had made bold investments on it, plus you also had some financial analysts that were doing strong forecasts of how much of the market could Itanium take in a mere few years (Which if you see now, looks ridiculous).
The fun part of that is that when Itanium finally showed up, it was already sinking, yet somehow before that, managed to kill or fatally wound all the others competing CPU architectures in the industry...

http://fromsiliconvalley.com/2014/06/16/itanic-liked-the-original-youll-love-the-sequel/
http://fromsiliconvalley.com/2014/06/24/itanic-liked-the-original-youll-love-the-sequel-part-2/


This post from a 2005 discussion explains a bit of what I said.

Yes, basically Itanium was a resounding success, just not the way you would expect it to be.

 

[Madpacket]

Some observations;

1. Already more ARM powered computers than x86 desktop PC's and servers combined, this will continue to widen as the need for dedicated desktops keep going down.
2. IoT looks to be powered by and lead by ARM designs.
3. Intel has proven time and time again they can't come up with a competitive product in these spaces without guerrilla marketing involved even with huge fabrication leads. They could fix this eventually but they appear to have a terrible time integrating everything into a SoC which is necessary for these markets.
4. x86 in the data centre will keep Intel alive for some time unless ARM eventually takes over that market but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Cloud computing is exploding so this will be their main growth market. Desktops are dying as we all know.

As for ARM IPC etc. The gap keeps narrowing between the performance lead that Intel x86 has vs. designs from Qualcomm and Apple even though they're made with weaker fabrication processes. The CPU is only one part of the problem though, it's the the overall SoC design that matters most.

Given Intel has failed in this space over and over I don't see how they'll compete in the IoT once this market takes off.

For VR, GPU's matter most especially with [almost] bare metal programming becoming standard. This is another market Intel can't seem to break into. Knights Landing is a neat concept but looks to be geared more towards scientific computing which will be a much smaller market.

Anyways, if I were an Intel investor (which I'm not), I would be a little worried about the future of the company.

POWER architecture is neat but is niche and will continue to be given the prices IBM commands for it.

 

[Shivansps]

Lets think this for a moment, X86 Windows Tablets is a success, people want them to run their x86 programs, this is clear because Microsoft, who started with the ARM thing on Surface, decided to abandon it in Surface 3 when they changed ARM for X86 Atom.

Now, in 10 to 15 years things may change as Windows Apps moves to the universal platform.

 

[Azuma Hazuki]

I would dearly like to see ARM eat Intel's lunch. Nice as Intel's chips are they've done too much shady stuff for me to really cheer them on as a company any longer...heck, I felt this way 10 years ago.

The apps are going to be a problem. Google Docs and LibreOffice Collab are just not there yet. But I believe I know a solution, as groan-inducing as it's gonna be:

Virtualization. You can run an x86 OS in VM on ARM architectures, and there's no reason (as far as I can tell) that something like XenApp can't serve an x86 app to an ARM (or OpenPOWER for that matter) client.

Microsoft holds people hostage with its apps. NO ONE runs Windows because they like Windows; it's for the apps and games. MS got complacent, lazy, and arrogant. If we collectively can "free the apps" (at least from their platform or OS dependency...) the whole rotten house of cards will come crashing down.

 

[PPB]

Lets think this for a moment, X86 Windows Tablets is a success, people want them to run their x86 programs, this is clear because Microsoft, who started with the ARM thing on Surface, decided to abandon it in Surface 3 when they changed ARM for X86 Atom.

Now, in 10 to 15 years things may change as Windows Apps moves to the universal platform.

Not only they aren't a success, even at subsidized prices, but the Tablet market is declining too altogether.

Its like failing in a market that is already failing by itself.


What needs to be done is a big player to lay down some big bucks into the productivity's ecosystem to start considering ARM based alternatives to their x86 software. The moment someone does that (my bet is Apple when they finally find no compromises in going full Ax based SoCs on their whole lineup) x86 will have it's days counted.

The only ardent supporters of x86 are the people that work with software only supporting this platform (and still dont see worthy alternatives from any other camp) and Intel fans. For the average Joe x86 is already a dead target if not because of the Wintel push.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I would dearly like to see ARM eat Intel's lunch. Nice as Intel's chips are they've done too much shady stuff for me to really cheer them on as a company any longer...heck, I felt this way 10 years ago.

Name me one ARM company that didn't do "shady" stuff.

The apps are going to be a problem. Google Docs and LibreOffice Collab are just not there yet. But I believe I know a solution, as groan-inducing as it's gonna be:

Virtualization. You can run an x86 OS in VM on ARM architectures, and there's no reason (as far as I can tell) that something like XenApp can't serve an x86 app to an ARM (or OpenPOWER for that matter) client.

Microsoft holds people hostage with its apps. NO ONE runs Windows because they like Windows; it's for the apps and games. MS got complacent, lazy, and arrogant. If we collectively can "free the apps" (at least from their platform or OS dependency...) the whole rotten house of cards will come crashing down.

x86 OS in a VM on ARM? How do you imagine that? And Apps is everything. Google Docs and LibreOffice os 10 years+ away even if one is generous.

I dont think you know who runs Windows. Alternatives to Windows is a complete rubbish outside of core type internet servers.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Microsoft holds people hostage with its apps. NO ONE runs Windows because they like Windows; it's for the apps and games. MS got complacent, lazy, and arrogant. If we collectively can "free the apps" (at least from their platform or OS dependency...) the whole rotten house of cards will come crashing down.

I like Windows.

 

[Zodiark1593]

I would dearly like to see ARM eat Intel's lunch. Nice as Intel's chips are they've done too much shady stuff for me to really cheer them on as a company any longer...heck, I felt this way 10 years ago.

The apps are going to be a problem. Google Docs and LibreOffice Collab are just not there yet. But I believe I know a solution, as groan-inducing as it's gonna be:

Virtualization. You can run an x86 OS in VM on ARM architectures, and there's no reason (as far as I can tell) that something like XenApp can't serve an x86 app to an ARM (or OpenPOWER for that matter) client.

Microsoft holds people hostage with its apps. NO ONE runs Windows because they like Windows; it's for the apps and games. MS got complacent, lazy, and arrogant. If we collectively can "free the apps" (at least from their platform or OS dependency...) the whole rotten house of cards will come crashing down.

Unless a big player like Valve tells everyone developing games for Steam to compile for ARM (or w/e we end up with) as well, the death of x86 would put a huge dent in PC gaming. X86 emulation is way too slow for any sort of performance-sensitive applications.

 

[Shivansps]

Not only they aren't a success, even at subsidized prices, but the Tablet market is declining too altogether.

Its like failing in a market that is already failing by itself.


What needs to be done is a big player to lay down some big bucks into the productivity's ecosystem to start considering ARM based alternatives to their x86 software. The moment someone does that (my bet is Apple when they finally find no compromises in going full Ax based SoCs on their whole lineup) x86 will have it's days counted.

The only ardent supporters of x86 are the people that work with software only supporting this platform (and still dont see worthy alternatives from any other camp) and Intel fans. For the average Joe x86 is already a dead target if not because of the Wintel push.

Why Microsoft decided to drop ARM on Surface and kill its own attempt to bring ARM to notebooks and desktops if x86 Windows tablets was not a success?

People has been saying "X86 and desktop is dead" for years now, im still waiting.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Not to mention how Chromebooks would takeover everything

 

[Nothingness]

Name me one ARM company that didn't do "shady" stuff.

ARM Ltd.

Now list what shady stuff Mediatek or Samsung Semi (as opposed to Samsung phone company) did.

x86 OS in a VM on ARM? How do you imagine that? And Apps is everything. Google Docs and LibreOffice os 10 years+ away even if one is generous.

Definitely agree.

I dont think you know who runs Windows.

Alternatives to Windows is a complete rubbish outside of core type internet servers.

Most engineers in my company run Linux on their WS and most companies running EDA tools are running Linux both on the desktop and in their clusters. The sad thing is that we have to rely on VM to run Office. Basically Windows is used only due to Office.

OTOH Office365 is quite good and I don't have to run outlook in the VM any more.

 

[ShintaiDK]

ARM Ltd.

Now list what shady stuff Mediatek or Samsung Semi (as opposed to Samsung phone company) did.

Technically ARM Holding isn't manufactoring chips.

MediaTek example.
http://www.extremetech.com/mobile/209221-next-cyanogen-phone-canceled-mediatek-probably-to-blame

You really want to mention Samsung? Stolen TSMC tech etc?
http://www.justice.gov/archive/atr/public/press_releases/2005/212002.htm
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...heft-give-samsung-its-14nm-manufacturing-lead
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/...c-employee-shared-stolen-secrets-with-samsung

Of all the companies you decide to mention one of the worst companies on this planet whos entire existence is based on copy, copy better

Most engineers in my company run Linux on their WS and most companies running EDA tools are running Linux both on the desktop and in their clusters. The sad thing is that we have to rely on VM to run Office. Basically Windows is used only due to Office.

OTOH Office365 is quite good and I don't have to run outlook in the VM any more.

And that's what we call a niche.

 

[Magic Carpet]

I am fine with x86/x64 whatever. I am fine with ARM. Who cares.

PC is just a tool, whatever gets the job done.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I would dearly like to see ARM eat Intel's lunch. Nice as Intel's chips are they've done too much shady stuff for me to really cheer them on as a company any longer...heck, I felt this way 10 years ago.

I'm not. x86 is one of the things keeping alive the compute paradigm that favors me and my usage habits.

ARM = walled gardens, app stores, and other such nonsense
x86 = do-it-yourself/build it yourself, free/open source OSes if you want them (Linux, *BSD, etc), "old-fashioned" download it and run it yourself software distribution model

The majority of ARM-equipped consumer hardware is all about software ecosystems. Apple and Google want to control what you do and how you do it. ARM does not currently show up in build-it-yourself PCs (with a few minor exceptions, like Beagle boards), and ARM is only marginally supported by robust desktop operating systems like Linux.

ARM isn't going to magically appear in desktop PCs tomorrow, running your OS of choice (or a Steam box), doing everything you want it to do, and how you want to do it. It's going to stay in cell phones, tablets, and similar devices. ARM beating Intel means phones/tablets/phablets wiping out most of what is left of the desktop paradigm through feature/mission creep.

That leads to a future where you'll have to basically buy workstation/server hardware just to get any kind of a desktop PC, period. Otherwise, your best bet is to run some jailbroken/rooted mobile device, and hope to hell that your machine doesn't get bricked by a microcode update or something.

Microsoft holds people hostage with its apps.

Bollocks. iOS and Android are far worse. If you have a PC, you don't HAVE to run any MS apps, and you can use an entirely different OS if you want without having to risk wrecking your hardware or violating some TOS. Yes, Win10 is somewhat invasive, but again, you don't have to run that OS if you don't want it . . .

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'm not. x86 is one of the things keeping alive the compute paradigm that favors me and my usage habits.

ARM = walled gardens, app stores, and other such nonsense
x86 = do-it-yourself/build it yourself, free/open source OSes if you want them (Linux, *BSD, etc), "old-fashioned" download it and run it yourself software distribution model

The majority of ARM-equipped consumer hardware is all about software ecosystems. Apple and Google want to control what you do and how you do it. ARM does not currently show up in build-it-yourself PCs (with a few minor exceptions, like Beagle boards), and ARM is only marginally supported by robust desktop operating systems like Linux.

ARM isn't going to magically appear in desktop PCs tomorrow, running your OS of choice (or a Steam box), doing everything you want it to do, and how you want to do it. It's going to stay in cell phones, tablets, and similar devices. ARM beating Intel means phones/tablets/phablets wiping out most of what is left of the desktop paradigm through feature/mission creep.

That leads to a future where you'll have to basically buy workstation/server hardware just to get any kind of a desktop PC, period. Otherwise, your best bet is to run some jailbroken/rooted mobile device, and hope to hell that your machine doesn't get bricked by a microcode update or something.



Bollocks. iOS and Android are far worse. If you have a PC, you don't HAVE to run any MS apps, and you can use an entirely different OS if you want without having to risk wrecking your hardware or violating some TOS. Yes, Win10 is somewhat invasive, but again, you don't have to run that OS if you don't want it . . .

What an excellent post. +1

 

[Exophase]

Bollocks. iOS and Android are far worse. If you have a PC, you don't HAVE to run any MS apps, and you can use an entirely different OS if you want without having to risk wrecking your hardware or violating some TOS. Yes, Win10 is somewhat invasive, but again, you don't have to run that OS if you don't want it . . .

There are devices shipped with Windows 10 that don't let you disable secure boot, though (so you're stuck with Windows 10)

And there are are or at least were mainstream commercial ARM devices that let you install other OSes without having to hack or circumvent anything. First thing I did with my Samsung Chromebook was put an Ubuntu variant on it instead of Chrome OS, I literally didn't boot into its preloaded OS once.

 

[Magic Carpet]

First thing I did with my Samsung Chromebook

Just curious, why did you get a Chromebook in the first place? Was it just because of the price factor?

 

[Exophase]

Just curious, why did you get a Chromebook in the first place? Was it just because of the price factor?

This particular Chromebook was the first full-sized ARM laptop with a decent processor, and the first device period with a Cortex-A15. I got it because I was doing extensive ARM-specific development for my Android app, and I work a lot better developing on a Linux laptop than cross compiling to some Android device. Especially when on the road.

Unfortunately since then I blew out the sound chip (there's a really nasty configuration problem in the distro I used). And I never got 3D acceleration on it. Kind of hoping for a new AArch64 Linux-friendly laptop to show up (sadly Pixel C doesn't appear to fill that role)

 

[Magic Carpet]

This particular Chromebook was the first full-sized ARM laptop with a decent processor, and the first device period with a Cortex-A15. I got it because I was doing extensive ARM-specific development for my Android app, and I work a lot better developing on a Linux laptop than cross compiling to some Android device. Especially when on the road.

Thanks, makes perfect sense. Does it lag at all on Linux?

 

[Madpacket]

I'm not. x86 is one of the things keeping alive the compute paradigm that favors me and my usage habits.

ARM = walled gardens, app stores, and other such nonsense
x86 = do-it-yourself/build it yourself, free/open source OSes if you want them (Linux, *BSD, etc), "old-fashioned" download it and run it yourself software distribution model

The majority of ARM-equipped consumer hardware is all about software ecosystems. Apple and Google want to control what you do and how you do it. ARM does not currently show up in build-it-yourself PCs (with a few minor exceptions, like Beagle boards), and ARM is only marginally supported by robust desktop operating systems like Linux.

ARM isn't going to magically appear in desktop PCs tomorrow, running your OS of choice (or a Steam box), doing everything you want it to do, and how you want to do it. It's going to stay in cell phones, tablets, and similar devices. ARM beating Intel means phones/tablets/phablets wiping out most of what is left of the desktop paradigm through feature/mission creep.

That leads to a future where you'll have to basically buy workstation/server hardware just to get any kind of a desktop PC, period. Otherwise, your best bet is to run some jailbroken/rooted mobile device, and hope to hell that your machine doesn't get bricked by a microcode update or something.



Bollocks. iOS and Android are far worse. If you have a PC, you don't HAVE to run any MS apps, and you can use an entirely different OS if you want without having to risk wrecking your hardware or violating some TOS. Yes, Win10 is somewhat invasive, but again, you don't have to run that OS if you don't want it . . .

Just to play devil's advocate, what if ARM ends up being cheaper, faster, and uses much less energy? It'll likely end up everywhere (including desktops and laptops). Microsoft's business model has changed, they're now all about making money off Azure cloud hosting, Office 365, and advertising dollars generated by Bing and Windows 10. The days of the "WINTEL" partnership could easily go away as the business model has really changed.

Apple as well could switch gears and move to a custom cyclone ARM processor (they've switched microarchitectures once already) to become even more vertically integrated but I envision them pushing iOS on desktop once they have enough apps, and slowly phase out OS X. At least this would be much easier than another Rosetta scenario.

Anyways, I agree with you in principle but we're a small minority here (hobbyists) and the days of DIY PC's (ATX is so antiquated it's not even funny) could be over pretty fast.

 

[jhu]

There are devices shipped with Windows 10 that don't let you disable secure boot, though (so you're stuck with Windows 10)

What devices? Would be good to know what to avoid.

And there are are or at least were mainstream commercial ARM devices that let you install other OSes without having to hack or circumvent anything. First thing I did with my Samsung Chromebook was put an Ubuntu variant on it instead of Chrome OS, I literally didn't boot into its preloaded OS once.

The most open one I know of is Raspberry Pi. I have the same Samsung Chromebook. It's a pain in the ass to install any non-chrooted Linux distribution or FreeBSD on this thing. It's even more of a pain to compile a custom kernel (I don't even know if the current 4.4.x kernels work). At this point in my life, I have too much going on to fiddle around with this. On x86, I can install, customize, and get on with my life. It takes a whole lot longer in the ARM world since nothing is standardized to a similar degree as x86 platforms.

 

[Arachnotronic]

ARM Ltd.

Now list what shady stuff Mediatek or Samsung Semi (as opposed to Samsung phone company) did.

Don't know about MediaTek, but Samsung Semi strikes me as very ethically-challenged. Their 14nm efforts were truly helped along by the theft of trade secrets/IP from TSMC and the financial and reputation damage done to TSMC as a result was significant.

Intel is no saint, it's a business like any other, but Samsung Semi is truly in a league of its own as far as corporate ethics are concerned.

http://english.cw.com.tw/article.do?action=show&id=14895

 

[Exophase]

What devices? Would be good to know what to avoid.

My apologies, I incorrectly stated that. What I should have said is that manufacturers now have the option to lock down secure boot on Windows 10 devices, but I don't know if anyone has done it or not (http://www.pcworld.com/article/2901...-boot-screws-where-does-that-leave-linux.html)

It could be nothing, or at least nothing yet. Although it's kind of weird if OEMs exclusively only want to do this with Android tablets (where it's also optional) and not Windows ones.

The most open one I know of is Raspberry Pi. I have the same Samsung Chromebook. It's a pain in the ass to install any non-chrooted Linux distribution or FreeBSD on this thing. It's even more of a pain to compile a custom kernel (I don't even know if the current 4.4.x kernels work). At this point in my life, I have too much going on to fiddle around with this. On x86, I can install, customize, and get on with my life. It takes a whole lot longer in the ARM world since nothing is standardized to a similar degree as x86 platforms.

Yeah it was a pain and I didn't really use it for long. It's more that you can do it without being encumbered by the manufacturer and less that it actually works well..

I mainly do ARM dev on my Pandora because I don't really need to write code or compile locally often as I'm not on the road very much these days. That is a native Linux ARM portable device with a keyboard and gaming controls. For my purposes it's a good fit for development, even though it's much weaker than the Chromebook.

That said, I'd still generally much rather use it than the RPi2, which is also pretty weak (although much more threaded power) and needs peripherals attached to do much with. Coding standalone on the Pandora would be cumbersome but at least it's possible.

 

[Nothingness]

And that's what we call a niche.

Indeed but that niche is neither "complete rubbish" or a "core type internet servers" as you wrote:

I dont think you know who runs Windows. Alternatives to Windows is a complete rubbish outside of core type internet servers.

I think you're the one who doesn't know how alternatives to Windows are used and who runs them

 

[Nothingness]

Don't know about MediaTek, but Samsung Semi is as ethically-bankrupt as it gets in this industry. Their 14nm efforts were truly helped along by the theft of trade secrets/IP from TSMC and the financial and reputation damage done to TSMC as a result was significant.

Intel is no saint, it's a business like any other, but Samsung Semi is truly in a league of its own as far as corporate ethics are concerned.

Yeah I had forgotten about that affair, my bad... But using that to extrapolate to all ARM companies is silly.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Yeah I had forgotten about that affair, my bad... But using that to extrapolate to all ARM companies is silly.

You can almost always find dirt on any successful company. Its just a matter of how deep you dig. Its just a reality of business.

I think you're the one who doesn't know how alternatives to Windows are used and who runs them

You would be very surprised.