Originally posted by: Skoorb
No.
If they file for chapter 11 the bond holders will become the new owners of the Big 3 and they will rip it apart piecemeal and sell it off. Additionally people would simply stop purchasing cars that they feel like could stop being serviced/produced in the future. Chapter 11 = the deathtoll.
Is that bad? Many would keep their jobs in these new companies. In regard to people buying cars, few are buying cars from these companies now anyway.
Exactly. It isn't like having a plant sold means the plant doesn't exist. Whomever purchases those piecemeal pieces of the big 3 would have all it takes to make a car company - lots of capital in those pieces, little debt since they got the pieces on the cheap, and plenty of highly skilled workers looking for jobs right in the cities with those newly purchased plants.
What it means is that a new car company will be formed from the pieces. Hopefully, that new car company will be better than those before them. We'll probably end up with an even bigger 2 instead of a big 3, but so what?
Yes, there will be a temporary decline in car buyers. But memory fades. When was the last time that you made a purchase where you've looked up ancient bankruptcy data from the manufacturer before you made your selection (eg. have you decided not to fly in a plane because at one point that route was probably run by a bankrupt airline)? Probably never. Buyers will leave, but they'll come back.
Credit default swaps are a whole other ballgame. Yes, it is legallized gambling with the least oversight of any other form of gambling. Yes, CDS are huge in terms of dollars. Yes, people made a good living temporarilly trading or creating them. But, that has nothing at all to do with the discussion about car manufacturers.