Should we continue to arm Taiwan?

[Schadenfroh]

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60013Z20100101

"Regrettably, this effort runs smack into a White House that clearly views Taiwan as a barrier to U.S. interests in Asia," he wrote in an annual year-end report dated Thursday and distributed Friday.

As you all know, our defense exports are highly regulated by the government. Both Obama and Bush have been very cautious in regards to allowing arms to be sold to the ROC (Republic of China (Taiwan)).

Traditionally, we have had close political ties to the KMT (China's conservative / nationalist (not to mention ruling) party) and the ROC itself. Our economic ties are tight with the ROC, but it is by far eclipsed by our economic ties to the PRC. This is obviously a very sensitive issue with the PRC. Do the Taiwanese people / government still consider the US their friend after our years of alienating them?

Is it worth our economic security / relationship with the PRC to continue to supply Taiwan with arms and to some extent protection? There is still the remote possibility in the future of a PRC attack on the ROC sparking another world war (possibly one side calling the other side's bluff), but that is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future.

Personally, I leaning towards that we should continue to sell / supply them with what they need to protect themselves (if the people of Taiwan want our help). But, I can see both sides of the issue and I suppose I could still be on the fence.

They hold many of the same values as us and it would be a shame to see another free society be snuffed out. Even a well armed Taiwan could not resist an overwhelming military attack from mainland China without U.S. and Friends' help, but with the right equipment and training, the cost of the invasion might not be worth it to China as they would have to destroy everything of value on the island and lose vast amounts of men and material to take it (which would deter an attack, I would think).

Edit: To clarify, when I say "arm Taiwan," I mean sell them arms, not give them to them for free

Update 1/29/10: It looks like the administration will continue to arm them
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100130/ts_nm/us_usa_china_taiwan

The Obama administration notified the U.S. Congress on Friday of its first proposed arms sales to Taiwan, a potential $6.4 billion package

China warned on Saturday that Washington's announcement of arms sales to Taiwan would seriously damage cooperation between the two global powers, voicing swift and sharp anger at the Obama administration.

Vice Minister He said the arms sales were "crude interference in China's domestic affairs and seriously harm China's national security" in remarks published on the website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry

Taiwan's Defense Ministry for its part welcomed Washington's decision.

"Its sales of arms to Taiwan gives us greater confidence in pushing for an amicable outcome in our relations with China, and will help promote peace in the Taiwan Strait."

Update 3/8/11:
Looks like the PRC is getting edgy about US trade with the ROC again. They have "asked" yet again that we cease arming Taiwan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011...E7260MT20110307?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

The United States will put improved relations with Beijing at risk if it does not stop selling arms to Taiwan, China's Foreign Minister said on Monday.

In other news, looks like there is going to be more friction in the Sino-Taiwanese relations, looks like a ROC general has sold secrets to the PRC and got busted.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=133630100

Taiwan has detained a major general on charges of providing military secrets to China, the defense ministry said Wednesday. Analysts said he may have compromised a vital military communications network that uses U.S. technology.

The case is the most serious Taiwanese spy scandal in decades and could make the U.S. reluctant to share military technology with Taiwan.

Taiwan has been infiltrated to the point where it is concerning that some of said arms technology might fall in the hands of the PRC.

Considering the PRC is expanding their military budget, Taiwan might be wishing to stock up soon as well.
http://www.defpro.com/news/details/22611/?SID=0d458ae95bf86655bc52de2ddda06fc3

China said Friday it plans to raise its defense budget by 12.7 percent to 601 billion yuan (91.5 billion U.S. dollars) in 2011, compared with an increase of 7.5 percent last year.

The question is, is helping ensure the (de facto) sovereignty of the ROC worth the risk of technology following into the hands of red agents and the strained relations with our largest economic partner, the PRC?

I must admit I am torn on this. But, for the moment, I must side with Taiwan and help ensure their freedom by providing them the necessary arms to deter an unprovoked attack.

 

[JS80]

After the current generation of Taiwanese die off, considering all the shenanigans that happened last decade, I think the next generation of weenies will probably be very reconciliatory towards the mainland with a possible pseudo reunification. No need for war.

 

[rchiu]

Who give a f about Taiwan and the 23 million people there. We all know China is the $hit, doesn't matter if China practice totally unfair trade/foreign exchange policy, doesn't matter China totally disrespect human right, doesn't matter China pretty much bully their citizen and other countries around, if China says don't sell arm to Taiwan, US and Obama gotta listen.

End of story.

 

[Hacp]

Yes we should but we should also charge up the ass for weapons and vehicles.

 

[MotF Bane]

Taiwan is an independent country. We can and should sell them equipment, but not gift anything.

 

[SamurAchzar]

After the current generation of Taiwanese die off, considering all the shenanigans that happened last decade, I think the next generation of weenies will probably be very reconciliatory towards the mainland with a possible pseudo reunification. No need for war.

Possibly. But then youngsters of this day and age suddenly show nationalist sentiments... But you're probably right, especially as these feelings might be bilateral, with the (very) gradual softening of the Chinese regime.

 

[alphatarget1]

After the current generation of Taiwanese die off, considering all the shenanigans that happened last decade, I think the next generation of weenies will probably be very reconciliatory towards the mainland with a possible pseudo reunification. No need for war.

You'd be surprised how many young Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese and not Chinese.

I know a few.

 

[Oceandevi]

Taiwan is an independent country. We can and should sell them equipment, but not gift anything.

Yeah too bad we cant even say that out loud. The world does not support taiwan. And when you go against china you need support.

 

[yllus]

Taiwan and China will never actually go to war anyways so why not make a tidy profit on their bloviating? Sell them jets and boats if they're willing to pay for them.

 

[bruceb]

Taiwan would not start a war. But China might. They have enough resources, both in material and manpower to do it and easily reclaim Taiwan as part of China, if they choose to do so. That is not to say the US and others might not go to Taiwan's aid. We very well might.

 

[JS80]

You'd be surprised how many young Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese and not Chinese.

I know a few.

I've noticed that the older generation is very anti-China (with good cause - they escaped the communists), the middle generation is half and half - some are super taiwan, others just care about money/business, and most of the younger generation don't give a crap, although the few that are "Taiwanese" are the vocal ones.

Look at the most recent elections, and the election shenanigans pulled by the government. I really do believe, as Taiwan and China become more economically connected, that their politics will move towards a more reconciliatory mood and move towards a HK-China like relationship.

 

[Dari]

Obama viewing Taiwan as a "barrier" to US interests in Asia is exactly what I was talking about in my thread regarding Obama being seen as weak in Asia. The guy oozes weakness and he has no spine to stand up for allies against an anti-G-d, antid-democratic, totalitarian government. Obama is a pussy.

 

[werepossum]

You'd be surprised how many young Taiwanese consider themselves Taiwanese and not Chinese.

I know a few.

Agreed. Red China has a great interest in absorbing Taiwan; Taiwan has little interest in returning to Communist China.

I say sell them whatever they can afford.

 

[ayabe]

Obama viewing Taiwan as a "barrier" to US interests in Asia is exactly what I was talking about in my thread regarding Obama being seen as weak in Asia. The guy oozes weakness and he has no spine to stand up for allies against an anti-G-d, antid-democratic, totalitarian government. Obama is a pussy.

What would you do? You want nuclear war over Taiwan?

Did Obama create the huge trade imbalance that has allowed China to bend us over? No Clinton did, and Bush doubled down.

So stop with your chickenhawk bullshit.

 

[JS80]

What would you do? You want nuclear war over Taiwan?

Did Obama create the huge trade imbalance that has allowed China to bend us over? No Clinton did, and Bush doubled down.

So stop with your chickenhawk bullshit.

He can at least pretend to support a democracy so that China has second thoughts, and then when nuclear war threat is real lay off support like the chickenshit he is.

 

[ayabe]

He can at least pretend to support a democracy so that China has second thoughts, and then when nuclear war threat is real lay off support like the chickenshit he is.

Sounds like a perfect plan to permanently erode whatever credibility we still have with our allies.

We might as well be the French and Brits when Poland was overrun, "we're on our way, we swear, just a few more weeks!"

 

[Elias824]

Id rather not let china think they can do whatever they want, if we do I bet damn sure they will use their power.

 

[JS80]

Sounds like a perfect plan to permanently erode whatever credibility we still have with our allies.

We might as well be the French and Brits when Poland was overrun, "we're on our way, we swear, just a few more weeks!"

It is a better option than outright kowtowing to the chinamen.

 

[Dari]

What would you do? You want nuclear war over Taiwan?

Did Obama create the huge trade imbalance that has allowed China to bend us over? No Clinton did, and Bush doubled down.

So stop with your chickenhawk bullshit.

Actually, China does not have us over a barrel. It's the opposite. A lot of the crap that comes from China is made or contracted by American companies. Furthermore, China's obsession with American debt makes it a Chinese problem, not an American problem. $800B is nothing to sneeze and they would have to think real hard before asking for that money cause we can just print it.

As for comparing Obama's action to previous governments, at least Clinton and Bush had the balls to sell to the Taiwanese. Obama is too fucking scared to do so. If China really wants a war over Taiwan, we have more than enough strength and allies to re-colonize them. Besides, with them being aggressive against other countries in that region with regards to territorial rights, what's to stop them at Taiwan?

 

[ayabe]

It is a better option than outright kowtowing to the chinamen.

I guess, if you assume that the Chinese are just too stupid to know we're bluffing. If push came to shove they know we'd back down, so posturing doesn't do anything.

Hey, I'm all for selling weapons to Taiwan, assuming they are straightup sales, China sells whatever they want to people we don't care for(Iran, Chavezuela, etc), so I think that's fair game.

Guaranteeing Taiwan's sovereignty is another game entirely and not one we should get involved in. That would be an empty promise and everyone knows it.

 

[Pepsei]

probably too late now.

it would not take long for China to load up the civilian planes with commandos and take over taiwan if they wanted to without using too much force.

the current president seens to be weak and more pro-china, although that last president is corrupt almost to the core for sending a lot of money to USA, in the family's bank account. although money laundering 17.7 mil US is a paltry sum compare to what bernie madoff did.

unless Taiwan can have the US military at its disposal. a few aegis ships won't do anything.

china will probably take over soon via assimilation and not force. hopefully it won't happen before my next few trips back home.

it's odd that i grew up being indoctrinated by the ROC nationalist to dislike chinese communists (and still do), they're the first to embrace chinese government.

 

[JS80]

I guess, if you assume that the Chinese are just too stupid to know we're bluffing. If push came to shove they know we'd back down, so posturing doesn't do anything.

Hey, I'm all for selling weapons to Taiwan, assuming they are straightup sales, China sells whatever they want to people we don't care for(Iran, Chavezuela, etc), so I think that's fair game.

Guaranteeing Taiwan's sovereignty is another game entirely and not one we should get involved in. That would be an empty promise and everyone knows it.

It's called game theory.

 

[JohnOfSheffield]

If you don't how the hell are you going to tell the world that they are a world threat when you need to invade some nation?

You'd think that was a joke but since Iraq, the only real joke is the US.

 

[ayabe]

Actually, China does not have us over a barrel. It's the opposite. A lot of the crap that comes from China is made or contracted by American companies. Furthermore, China's obsession with American debt makes it a Chinese problem, not an American problem. $800B is nothing to sneeze and they would have to think real hard before asking for that money cause we can just print it.

As for comparing Obama's action to previous governments, at least Clinton and Bush had the balls to sell to the Taiwanese. Obama is too fucking scared to do so. If China really wants a war over Taiwan, we have more than enough strength and allies to re-colonize them. Besides, with them being aggressive against other countries in that region with regards to territorial rights, what's to stop them at Taiwan?

I think part of our disagreement is stemming from a different take on the current status of American power. I believe we are weaker now than at any point in my lifetime (1979-present).

Japan of all places is distancing themselves from us, our economy is in a shambles, our government IS printing money and on the verge of banana republic status, the bulk of our land forces are employed in two endless war, our aircraft are aging, we've spent most of the last ten years pissing in the faces of our European allies(except Poland...oh wait), AND we've allowed China to continue their unfair trade and monetary policies with us even encouraging the transfer of a huge percentage of our manufacturing base to the east.

When and if China decides to "incorporate" Taiwan will entirely hinge on their own interests and not some empty threat from us.

 

[Dari]

I think part of our disagreement is stemming from a different take on the current status of American power. I believe we are weaker now than at any point in my lifetime (1979-present).

Japan of all places is distancing themselves from us, our economy is in a shambles, our government IS printing money and on the verge of banana republic status, the bulk of our land forces are employed in two endless war, our aircraft are aging, we've spent most of the last ten years pissing in the faces of our European allies(except Poland...oh wait), AND we've allowed China to continue their unfair trade and monetary policies with us even encouraging the transfer of a huge percentage of our manufacturing base to the east.

When and if China decides to "incorporate" Taiwan will entirely hinge on their own interests and not some empty threat from us.

Well, despite our current problems, I doubt China would want to test us. Hell, their Navy can't even stand up to the Japanese one, let alone America's.