Should we continue to arm Taiwan?

[lsquare]

I think part of our disagreement is stemming from a different take on the current status of American power. I believe we are weaker now than at any point in my lifetime (1979-present).

You can thank Bush for invading Iraq. The war in Iraq only exposes US military weakness and limit its ability to fight a war against China. This is why China is becoming ever so assertive against the US. The US must conclude the Iraq War as soon as possible to regroup and confront the PRC in the Pacific. In my opinion, the biggest threat to the US, economically and militarily, is the PRC.

Japan of all places is distancing themselves from us, our economy is in a shambles, our government IS printing money and on the verge of banana republic status, the bulk of our land forces are employed in two endless war, our aircraft are aging, we've spent most of the last ten years pissing in the faces of our European allies(except Poland...oh wait), AND we've allowed China to continue their unfair trade and monetary policies with us even encouraging the transfer of a huge percentage of our manufacturing base to the east.

When and if China decides to "incorporate" Taiwan will entirely hinge on their own interests and not some empty threat from us.

Before we continue bashing the PRC here, let's not forget that a lot of people are benefitting from trading with the PRC. How else you think Walmart is able to sell things so cheaply? Let's face it, we all like to bash the PRC for its unfair trading practicies with the rest of the world, but at the same time, we like to take advantage of them for their cheap labour to manufacture the shit that we all like to buy. Isn't that unfair? Let's face we stop trading with China altogether, then we can forget about buying anything for "cheap" in the future unless Americans are willing to work for less, which they won't.

Japan may be trying to get closer to China, but in time, they'll realize that the US is its only indispensable ally. Don't forget, Japan and China have territorial disputes in the Pacific. Not to mention, they clash over interpretations of history. They don't share the same ideals and values that Japan and the US does. Only the US can guarantee Japan's security and the Japanese knows it.

 

[lsquare]

OP updated, it looks like Obama approved the sizable arms sale. Looks like this package was mostly defensive technology, like patriot missile batteries, but it did include Black Hawks (did not specify if it was the attack helicopter model or the utility model). Command and Control equipment was also in there.

This should piss China off nicely, shame they hold so much of our debt.

One of my bosses is originally from Taiwan, so obviously I take the mainland's side in this matter.

Joking of course, in a better world (where we owe no money), I would support the sale without hesitation. I still support the arms sale, but it does make we weary due to the economic MAD relationship we have with the mainland.

China may hold a lot of the US' debt, but they would be mad to flood the market with dollars and destroy the US economy? Why? Because a destroyed US economy would destroy the Chinese economy. The US is the PRC's biggest trading partner. You're telling me the Chinese would want to hurt themselves by punishing the Americans over an issue like this? Yea, selling weapons irritate the Chinese, but they sure wouldn't risk war or their own economic well-being over this.

 

[lsquare]

I disagree with Dari here, the Chinese are starting to upgrade their military and have the luxury of buying and building the latest and the greatest technology without being stuck with maintaining a huge inventory of obsolete equipment.

All we do by arming Taiwan is to motivate China to arm far faster than China wants to and accelerate the day when China achieves military parity in the far East.

China is now in the position the US was when Teddy Roosevelt was in office. And in a decade, the USA went from an insignificant Naval Power to competitive with the British.
As the Japanese did roughly the same and kicked the butt of a huge Russian fleet in 1906.

The last thing the USA needs at this is to get into an arms race with China. And China, which is in a time of great change and is wracked with all kinds of internal disagreements
has already discovered that nothing unifies the Chinese more than regaining lost territory. Singapore is an example of that as the British 100 year lease expired.

The fact here is that the PRC is already modernizing its military with or without weapon sales to the Taiwanese. The PRC is already realizing that its interests are now expanding to other parts of the world and it needs the ability to protect them. The US is the PRC's major competitor. The world is already more or less in an arms race. If you read the BBC, weapon sales are announce almost monthly. The Russians just announced a billion dollar deal to sell weapons to Libya. Iran, Venezuela and the PRC have been buying weapons from the Russians for years.

In regards to Singapore, you've made a mistake there. Singapore was never part of China and there was never a lease on it. I think you got that confused with Hong Kong. Part of Hong Kong was leased for 99 years and eventually all of it including the part of Hong Kong that the British won from the first Opium War was returned to the PRC in 1997.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Actually, China does not have us over a barrel. It's the opposite. A lot of the crap that comes from China is made or contracted by American companies. Furthermore, China's obsession with American debt makes it a Chinese problem, not an American problem. $800B is nothing to sneeze and they would have to think real hard before asking for that money cause we can just print it.

As for comparing Obama's action to previous governments, at least Clinton and Bush had the balls to sell to the Taiwanese. Obama is too fucking scared to do so. If China really wants a war over Taiwan, we have more than enough strength and allies to re-colonize them. Besides, with them being aggressive against other countries in that region with regards to territorial rights, what's to stop them at Taiwan?

On your first paragraph, I agree but I believe a Chinese action, like demanding the US pay them the $800B now would be crippling to both countries. If the US printed $800B to pay off debt with China, there would be massive inflation in the US simular to what happened to Germany during the great depression, right before the second world war. People were carrying money in wheel barrows just to buy a loaf of bread. This would also have a negative effect in China, as the US dollar would be worth nothing, China would suffer as much if not more. Exports to the US would cease, massive unemployment, massive inflation, etc. etc. You see the poison pill kills both the dispensor and the recipient.

Now on your second paragraph. I'm not an Obama supporter (I wasn't a McCain supporter either because in many ways, McCain seamed just as liberal as a democratic candidate). What was really wierd feeling for me since I'm very conservative in nature, is that I actually voted for Hillary in the primary because McCain had already sealed the Republican nomination and gasp, this sound horrid to me, I felt she was the best candidate out of the three (Obama, McCain, Clinton). Anyway, I listened to Obama's speaches during the Presidental Campaign about ending the war, closing Guantonimo, etc., etc., but I have not seen anything about his current actions that would lead me to believe he wouldn't support Tiawan. Obama said he'd end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, he has shifted US forces from Iraq, and has also implemented a troup surge in Afghanistan. He also hasn't closed Guantonimo. It isn't because he doesn't want to, but I believe once he was fully briefed after becoming President, he has had little choice but to continue many of the previous administrations policies. The Bush administration, or should I say Cheney administration, had contingencies in place that would have handled the situation if China had decided during the gulf war to invade Tiawan. Iraq would have been abandoned and full force would have been applied to support Tiawan. The same with South Korea. If North Korea would have tried to take advantage and invade the South, Iraq would have been abandoned and full force would have been leveled on the North Koreans. After either of the potential conflicts were resolved, the US would have been right back in Iraq.

 

[Brainonska511]

Before we continue bashing the PRC here, let's not forget that a lot of people are benefitting from trading with the PRC. How else you think Walmart is able to sell things so cheaply? Let's face it, we all like to bash the PRC for its unfair trading practicies with the rest of the world, but at the same time, we like to take advantage of them for their cheap labour to manufacture the shit that we all like to buy. Isn't that unfair? Let's face we stop trading with China altogether, then we can forget about buying anything for "cheap" in the future unless Americans are willing to work for less, which they won't.

We might seem to benefit with trade with China in the short term in regards to crap goods sold in the US, but it only hurts us in the long run. The pegging of China's currency to our own to keep their export costs in the gutter and forcing goods that are imported from the US to remain high priced in Chinese markets, only benefits China and hurts our export base and raises our trade deficit.

 

[lsquare]

We might seem to benefit with trade with China in the short term in regards to crap goods sold in the US, but it only hurts us in the long run. The pegging of China's currency to our own to keep their export costs in the gutter and forcing goods that are imported from the US to remain high priced in Chinese markets, only benefits China and hurts our export base and raises our trade deficit.

It's double standards man. Do you realize how much of our stuff are being manufactured in China? I see and agree with everything that you say, but in today's world, most companies have no choice, but to move production to China and other low labour companies. Why? Because if those companies don't, then other foreign companies that do have a manufacturing base will and then sell their finished products in the US. They'll have an unfair competitive advantage compared to US companies. Also, tell that to the rest of the low income Americans who benefits from the cheap finished products made in China. How will they react when prices triples or quadruples if the stuff were to be made in the US?

 

[lsquare]

On your first paragraph, I agree but I believe a Chinese action, like demanding the US pay them the $800B now would be crippling to both countries. If the US printed $800B to pay off debt with China, there would be massive inflation in the US simular to what happened to Germany during the great depression, right before the second world war. People were carrying money in wheel barrows just to buy a loaf of bread. This would also have a negative effect in China, as the US dollar would be worth nothing, China would suffer as much if not more. Exports to the US would cease, massive unemployment, massive inflation, etc. etc. You see the poison pill kills both the dispensor and the recipient.

I don't think the US would have experienced hyperinflation if it printed another billion. You do realize that the Treasury printed $1 trillion during this recession right? Circumstances then (referring to Germany) and now are very different. I'm not saying printing more money won't cause inflation, obviously it will if enough of it are printed and economic conditions further deterioriates. In many ways though, inflation is actually better than deflation.

Now on your second paragraph. I'm not an Obama supporter (I wasn't a McCain supporter either because in many ways, McCain seamed just as liberal as a democratic candidate). What was really wierd feeling for me since I'm very conservative in nature, is that I actually voted for Hillary in the primary because McCain had already sealed the Republican nomination and gasp, this sound horrid to me, I felt she was the best candidate out of the three (Obama, McCain, Clinton). Anyway, I listened to Obama's speaches during the Presidental Campaign about ending the war, closing Guantonimo, etc., etc., but I have not seen anything about his current actions that would lead me to believe he wouldn't support Tiawan. Obama said he'd end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, he has shifted US forces from Iraq, and has also implemented a troup surge in Afghanistan. He also hasn't closed Guantonimo. It isn't because he doesn't want to, but I believe once he was fully briefed after becoming President, he has had little choice but to continue many of the previous administrations policies. The Bush administration, or should I say Cheney administration, had contingencies in place that would have handled the situation if China had decided during the gulf war to invade Tiawan. Iraq would have been abandoned and full force would have been applied to support Tiawan. The same with South Korea. If North Korea would have tried to take advantage and invade the South, Iraq would have been abandoned and full force would have been leveled on the North Koreans. After either of the potential conflicts were resolved, the US would have been right back in Iraq.

I agree with what you have said here in regards to the Bush Administration's policies. I've always consider myself to be in the centre-right of politics. Obama just realized what he was preaching just wasn't realistic. I think that's why he won the election in 2008 because people came to believe his idealism. Fast forward to 2010 and now you see why so many people are disappointed with him because he has failed to deliver in so many ways. I'm not saying he's a failure as he still have 3 years to get something going.

What I do disagree with you is whether the US would have stopped the invasion of Iraq if China had invaded Taiwan. That's nonsense and they wouldn't have. Do you realize how bad that would look if the US stopped the invasion? Bush's credibility and the image of the US would be tarnished. Iraq was not a global power like China is today. It's not like the US military doesn't have the men and capacity to fight a multi-front war then. Even today, it can fight a multi-front war if it has to. Iraq is certainly a different opponent from China. Any Sino-US conflict would be a difficult one. I would imagine the reinstation of the draft might become necessary due to the difference in manpower of the US military.

 

[piasabird]

A lot of motherboard companies are headquartered in Taiwan.

I think this is a good reason to care about Taiwan.

Also a lot of the motherboards and other items are being manufactured in China.

For this reason China would be stupid to interfere with Taiwan. Taiwan is a giant cash cow for China! I think China is full of bull hockey.

 

[piasabird]

The true test for China, is how long they could survive an embargo and a ban on imports from China. China also grows a lot of their food in foreign countries. Without access to shipping lains they would be in big trouble. People would start starving to death in weeks.

 

[Schadenfroh]

Looks like Taiwan has verbally released us from any obligation to protect them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6420UR20100503

In a statement seen appeasing both Washington and Beijing, Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou had told a visiting television reporter over the weekend that the island would stand up for itself, suggesting the United States was not obligated to send help and risk its own conflict with China.

One of my close friends is from the mainland and it is interesting listening to her talk about Taiwan as if it is just another province of China with special rules like Hong Kong. But, I also hear the flip-side since one of my boss' is from Taiwan (raised in America, but very anti-communist) whose parents fled to Taiwan during their civil war to escape oppression and communists stealing their land, etc.

Side tracked there, oh well, if the PRC decides to attack the ROC unprovoked, I do not know what we are going to do. I would love to see our Navy help crush any amphibious assault attempt by the PRC, but on the flip side, such intervention would DESTROY both of our economies.

 

[alphatarget1]

Looks like Taiwan has verbally released us from any obligation to protect them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6420UR20100503

One of my close friends is from the mainland and it is interesting listening to hear her talk about Taiwan as just another province of China with special rules like Hong Kong. But, I also hear the flip-side since one of my boss' is from Taiwan (raised in America) whose parents fled to Taiwan during their civil war to escape oppression and communists stealing their land, etc.

Modern Chinese history is an interesting one. I wouldn't say the KMT were saints back in the civil war- there was a ton of corruption. That's why the Commies took over with very widespread public support at the time. After the Commies took over... well, same old sh!t.

Taiwan is de-facto independent. This is something that most mainland Chinese people will neither accept nor understand. I expect to see some form of reunification in my lifetime, and I sure hope it won't be accomplished by force. I'd say the current Chinese leadership is quite sane, but you have no idea how nationalistic the current generation is. China's future leaders will come from this generation and there is no telling what they'd do. The new Taiwanese leadership knows this. You can't really fight China and win in the long run. It's better to get the best deal for the people in Taiwan instead of risking for total annihilation. It might not be the right thing, but it is what it is.

My $0.02.

 

[K1052]

I'm sure the Taiwanese didn't give this up for nothing, probably access to top shelf US military gear.

 

[Lemon law]

At this point, having the USA aid in arming Taiwan would be very foolish IMHO.

Simple because China is building up its military at a slow rate currently, and all arming Taiwan would do is anger the Chinese, And that anger would turn into Chinese military spending that would greatly increase Chinese hegemony over all of Asia and the Eastern Pacific. And as soon as China get that kick ass military, some greedy Chinese leader will get the bright idea of using the military.

IMHO, with US, Taiwanese, and Chinese diplomacy all invested in a stable Asia, Taiwan can probably cut a deal guaranteeing its autonomy if not their Independence in exchange for helping the Chinese modernize their manufacturing. A nearby unfriendly country is always an irritant to a larger nation, but nearby non hostile nations are not a worry and can become advantageous at times.

 

[Infohawk]

China will probably eventually take it over if they want it. We should concentrate on dismantling the European powers instead since they are weak and we can see some real results. Imagine giving the Basques some missiles which they can point at Madrid. Or have drones flying over London assassinating their MPs.

Wow completely off-topic and trollish.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

At this point, having the USA aid in arming Taiwan would be very foolish IMHO.

Simple because China is building up its military at a slow rate currently, and all arming Taiwan would do is anger the Chinese, And that anger would turn into Chinese military spending that would greatly increase Chinese hegemony over all of Asia and the Eastern Pacific. And as soon as China get that kick ass military, some greedy Chinese leader will get the bright idea of using the military.

IMHO, with US, Taiwanese, and Chinese diplomacy all invested in a stable Asia, Taiwan can probably cut a deal guaranteeing its autonomy if not their Independence in exchange for helping the Chinese modernize their manufacturing. A nearby unfriendly country is always an irritant to a larger nation, but nearby non hostile nations are not a worry and can become advantageous at times.

Taiwan isn't going to help China modernize their manufacturing. China is doing fine on its own. It's just that it's too large of a country, and not all of it can race forward at the same pace. Technology and innovation is coming fast enough in China. And with a lot of new economic ties, there's plenty of investment already going from Taiwan to China. China will never be satisfied until Taiwan is reclaimed.

US arms sales to Taiwan is nothing but a facade. It's not like China can't overtake the island as it is now. This has probably been the case for the past 10-15 years. It's just a deterrent. If Taiwan can look like it has some modern weapons and can inflict some damage, whatever China tries to do won't be a simple overnight takeover. It's gonna require some serious bloodshed--something it can't risk with the US watching over (regardless of whether we intervene or not) and in terms of public image.

 

[K1052]

US arms sales to Taiwan is nothing but a facade.

Unless we've brokered a deal with South Korea to produce Type 214 AIP submarines for Taiwan. They just licensed a bunch more earlier this year for domestic production. They probably don't care if the Germans cut them off since they'll just do to them what they did to the Japanese with cars.

 

[piasabird]

Taiwan is not an independent country. It is disputed land that belongs to China and even the USA officially recognizes that fact. They are all chinese. However, arming them makes them equals. Many of the people in Taiwan fled the mainland because they wanted to be free or the wanted to flee China for fear of their death. It is like they are political prisoners in a jail of their own making. They would be better off reconciling their differences, and acknowledging the fact that they are part of China.

China owes Taiwan a lot of respect because they have helped to feed the industrialization of China. Many companies in Taiwan have moved or expanded some of their capitalistic companies to mainland China. China needs to recognize this.

 

[Lemon law]

The other thing to point out is that Taiwan has largely avoided all the manufacturing and too rapid industrialization problem that ails China. Is Taiwan selling lead painted toys to the US plus poisoned food and dog food? Has Taiwan poisoned its own environment with massive pollution like many parts of China? Does Taiwan suffer from massive population shifts and great disparities of wealth like China? Can China benefit from Taiwan's better trade ties to the West and Japan?

Answer yes to a single one of those questions and we can see no immediate benefit for China taking over Taiwan, and that future co-operative is in the benefits of both China and Taiwan.

And the only thing that would queer than deal is making Taiwan into a military threat to China.

 

[lsquare]

Looks like Taiwan has verbally released us from any obligation to protect them.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6420UR20100503


One of my close friends is from the mainland and it is interesting listening to her talk about Taiwan as if it is just another province of China with special rules like Hong Kong. But, I also hear the flip-side since one of my boss' is from Taiwan (raised in America, but very anti-communist) whose parents fled to Taiwan during their civil war to escape oppression and communists stealing their land, etc.

Side tracked there, oh well, if the PRC decides to attack the ROC unprovoked, I do not know what we are going to do. I would love to see our Navy help crush any amphibious assault attempt by the PRC, but on the flip side, such intervention would DESTROY both of our economies.

Mainland Chinese people are obviously going to be very sympathetic towards their government's line and vice-versa with the Taiwanese.

The fact of the matter is that regardless of what a Taiwanese administration says, America will not let the PRC unilaterally force Taiwan to reunify.

Taiwan is part of the US' bigger plan of containing a rising China. The notion that Taiwan has no significance to the US is fundamentally false. A lot of scholars see the strategic advantage of having a pro-US regime in Taiwan.

Make no mistake about it, the US is working with allies in the region to contain a fast rising China. You can read the latest issue of Foreign Policy to see what I mean. For the past decade, the US has been smoothing relations with key powers in the region like India. Everyone in that region understands that the stronger China is militarily and economically, the greater its influence on the region would be. As long as the US' power is apparent in the region, it'll help keep the peace in the region and complicates China's effort to move freely in the region.

Make no mistake about it, the US is going no where. Between now and the next 25 years, you will see that the US' main focus will shift to China because of its rising power. Taiwan is going to be part of this equation regardless of the few naive individuals that would think otherwise.

 

[lsquare]

Modern Chinese history is an interesting one. I wouldn't say the KMT were saints back in the civil war- there was a ton of corruption. That's why the Commies took over with very widespread public support at the time. After the Commies took over... well, same old sh!t.

Taiwan is de-facto independent. This is something that most mainland Chinese people will neither accept nor understand. I expect to see some form of reunification in my lifetime, and I sure hope it won't be accomplished by force. I'd say the current Chinese leadership is quite sane, but you have no idea how nationalistic the current generation is. China's future leaders will come from this generation and there is no telling what they'd do. The new Taiwanese leadership knows this. You can't really fight China and win in the long run. It's better to get the best deal for the people in Taiwan instead of risking for total annihilation. It might not be the right thing, but it is what it is.

My $0.02.

Well, the current regime in China is arguably as corrupt as the KMT governments of the 1920s/1930s/1940s. The difference is that the wealth distribution today is much better than it was during the KMT era. Also, the Communist Party has full control of the police and military forces.

It doesn't matter whether Taiwan has de-facto independence or not. No major power will ever recognize it as a independent state. Only when China is defeated military in war can a independent Taiwan become a reality.

I would say all Communist leaders have been sane. I don't think even Mao thought the US was bluffing when they said they would guarantee Taiwan's security. If they did, an invasion would have happened by now. The fact that both the PRC and the US have nuclear weapons further complicate this. The Chinese as well as the Americans know that the price for a Sino-US conflict is great. It's so great that neither side wants to upset the status-quo. Just look at the immense pressure GWB placed on Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian when he wanted to move ahead on the referendum of changing Taiwan's Constitution.

The balance of power in the region is shifting to the PRC. There's no denying to this. War isn't going to happen as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence.

 

[lsquare]

At this point, having the USA aid in arming Taiwan would be very foolish IMHO.

Simple because China is building up its military at a slow rate currently, and all arming Taiwan would do is anger the Chinese, And that anger would turn into Chinese military spending that would greatly increase Chinese hegemony over all of Asia and the Eastern Pacific. And as soon as China get that kick ass military, some greedy Chinese leader will get the bright idea of using the military.

IMHO, with US, Taiwanese, and Chinese diplomacy all invested in a stable Asia, Taiwan can probably cut a deal guaranteeing its autonomy if not their Independence in exchange for helping the Chinese modernize their manufacturing. A nearby unfriendly country is always an irritant to a larger nation, but nearby non hostile nations are not a worry and can become advantageous at times.

Chinese military spending has increased by double-digits for the past decade. Even today, it's still high. Make no mistake about it, there's a arms race in Asia. The US has no choice, but to continue selling weapons to Taiwan. Not only it's the law, but it's also in the US' interest to have the Taiwanese capable of protecting its sovereignty.

Wrong, China doesn't have hegemony in Asia at the moment. They will be resisted in all fronts. India and Japan both will resist an Asian order led by the Chinese. The US is already coordinating efforts to contain China on the continent.

If the Chinese miscalculate and uses their military to further their political agenda, then there will be a price to pay. China ain't in the same league as the US. They're not going to destroy their enemies with ease. The PRC have not won a war in their entire history.

Taiwan will not be independent. Uh, the Chinese have already proposed a one-country, two system concept to the Taiwanese, but they have rejected this.

 

[lsquare]

The other thing to point out is that Taiwan has largely avoided all the manufacturing and too rapid industrialization problem that ails China. Is Taiwan selling lead painted toys to the US plus poisoned food and dog food? Has Taiwan poisoned its own environment with massive pollution like many parts of China? Does Taiwan suffer from massive population shifts and great disparities of wealth like China? Can China benefit from Taiwan's better trade ties to the West and Japan?

Answer yes to a single one of those questions and we can see no immediate benefit for China taking over Taiwan, and that future co-operative is in the benefits of both China and Taiwan.

And the only thing that would queer than deal is making Taiwan into a military threat to China.

You can't compare China to Taiwan like that. First, China is a massive country. It's fairly obvious that in countries like China, economic development won't be even. Every country that went through industralization has polluted its environment to a great extent. Look at the UK, Japan, and even the US as an example. It took decades and billions of dollars to undo some of the damage that industrialization has caused.

I can say with absolute certainty that the PRC will not control Taiwan for the next 25 years unless war breaks out. In that scenario, it's hard to say who would win, but I have no doubts that neither the PRC nor the US would want to fight a war over Taiwan. Both sides understands the price of a Sino-US conflict.

 

[gaidensensei]

Ma made a recent speech stating they don't want US interference, but will continue to buy arms. I guess I can post the article to that in a new thread.

 

[Aegeon]

US arms sales to Taiwan is nothing but a facade. It's not like China can't overtake the island as it is now. This has probably been the case for the past 10-15 years. It's just a deterrent. If Taiwan can look like it has some modern weapons and can inflict some damage, whatever China tries to do won't be a simple overnight takeover. It's gonna require some serious bloodshed--something it can't risk with the US watching over (regardless of whether we intervene or not) and in terms of public image.

You're wildly wrong on this point.

The only way China could taken over Taiwan significantly in the past (at least if we're talking recently rather than say pre-1970s) would have been eventually forcing Taiwan to submit with a sub based blockade because it would not have been possible to succeed with a direct invasion. Even today without US intervention a direct invasion right now would be quite iffy.

Taiwan has around 170,000 active army troops plus around an around 30,000 strong active marine force, plus over 1.5 million men in reserves that can be mobilized as ground troops in the event of a Chinese invasion or simply a clear enough threat of one. (The active army troops number includes 16,000 troops designated military police, but who also happen to be armed with things like AT-4s, grenade launchers, 50 caliber machine guns, and artillery and are designated to help defend Taiwan in the events of an invasion.)

The basic issue is that China may have a huge army, but it needs to rapidly move across a massive number of men, equipment, and supplies in order to secure a bridgehead and avoid being overwhelmed by Taiwan's active forces and quickly mobilizing reserves. Right now China has nowhere near the amount of dedicated amphibious transports it would need to actually plausibly successfully pull off such an invasion, and even jury rigging a solution while giving up surprise and risking the US having a huge amount of time to react may not be sufficient to successfully pull things off.

This is especially true given Taiwanese assets such as mobile anti-ship missile batteries and tanks waiting to blow up the transports and gun down men as they try to disembark to the limited number of usable invasion beaches on Taiwan come into play to potentially turn things into an ugly bloodbath for China.

In fact, anytime very soon, a Chinese invasion is guaranteed to fail if the US promptly intervenes. A reasonable portion of the US sub fleet getting to the area alone is enough to guarantee failure to China by sinking too many of the transports on top of the damage to key Chinese military targets they could inflict with their tomahawk cruise missiles.

China needs to rather massively build up its amphibious transport force in particular to change this situation and potentially allow them to take Taiwan before the US can effectively intervene. The reality is having to cross the Strait of Taiwan makes it a very dramatically more difficult invasion task for China where they really can't effectively bring their overall troop numbers or manpower into play.

 

[lsquare]

You're wildly wrong on this point.

The only way China could taken over Taiwan significantly in the past (at least if we're talking recently rather than say pre-1970s) would have been eventually forcing Taiwan to submit with a sub based blockade because it would not have been possible to succeed with a direct invasion. Even today without US intervention a direct invasion right now would be quite iffy.

Taiwan has around 170,000 active army troops plus around an around 30,000 strong active marine force, plus over 1.5 million men in reserves that can be mobilized as ground troops in the event of a Chinese invasion or simply a clear enough threat of one. (The active army troops number includes 16,000 troops designated military police, but who also happen to be armed with things like AT-4s, grenade launchers, 50 caliber machine guns, and artillery and are designated to help defend Taiwan in the events of an invasion.)

The basic issue is that China may have a huge army, but it needs to rapidly move across a massive number of men, equipment, and supplies in order to secure a bridgehead and avoid being overwhelmed by Taiwan's active forces and quickly mobilizing reserves. Right now China has nowhere near the amount of dedicated amphibious transports it would need to actually plausibly successfully pull off such an invasion, and even jury rigging a solution while giving up surprise and risking the US having a huge amount of time to react may not be sufficient to successfully pull things off.

This is especially true given Taiwanese assets such as mobile anti-ship missile batteries and tanks waiting to blow up the transports and gun down men as they try to disembark to the limited number of usable invasion beaches on Taiwan come into play to potentially turn things into an ugly bloodbath for China.

In fact, anytime very soon, a Chinese invasion is guaranteed to fail if the US promptly intervenes. A reasonable portion of the US sub fleet getting to the area alone is enough to guarantee failure to China by sinking too many of the transports on top of the damage to key Chinese military targets they could inflict with their tomahawk cruise missiles.

China needs to rather massively build up its amphibious transport force in particular to change this situation and potentially allow them to take Taiwan before the US can effectively intervene. The reality is having to cross the Strait of Taiwan makes it a very dramatically more difficult invasion task for China where they really can't effectively bring their overall troop numbers or manpower into play.

I could not agree with you more. While I have no idea what Taiwan's actual military strength is, I wouldn't be surprised that it has the capability to defend itself. While it may not win an outright war with the mainland, I believe it has the capacity to slow down any PLA advance until the US military arrive.

Thank god for the Taiwan Strait. If it wasn't for that body of water, the PLA would easily overwhelm Taiwan thanks to its size. I was in Taiwan last year and the entire city of Taipei was shut down for close to half an hour during last July as there was a military drill (not sure if it was the airforce or not, but I would assume it was because of the noise in the iar).

Nonetheless, you didn't address the issues of missiles. While no one knows for sure how many missiles the PRC have aimed at Taiwan, one can safely assume that it's a significant number. The PRC can just fire away and cause massive civilian casualties. Having said that, this doesn't necessarily make it easier to invade Taiwan, but it further drives down the fear to the Taiwanese not to miscalculate. This can be said to the PRC as well. If they miscalculate, they will pay a heavy price as well.