Short Nintendo stock?

[desura]

the Switch looks like it will be a huge flop. Barely more powerful than the 4 year old Wii U, it has a lot of moving parts which will mean higher warranty costs, and it has some really bad design decisions like the useless dock which doesn't contain any processing power and which also scratches the screen.

And if you want to apply a skin to it you will destroy the paint job.

And the controllers lose wireless connection.

And cell phone games are good enough for most people.

Stock is at 26 bucks about right now. I'm thinking with the failure of the Switch it should go below $10 a share.

Only problem might be the Switch fails fast and Nintendo quickly transitions to a software shop. But given their stubbornness, and Japanese culture, it looks like they will probably suffer a slow death via their hardware division and the Switch.

 

[pete6032]

Ok.

 

[Sonikku]

the Switch looks like it will be a huge flop. Barely more powerful than the 4 year old Wii U, it has a lot of moving parts which will mean higher warranty costs, and it has some really bad design decisions like the useless dock which doesn't contain any processing power and which also scratches the screen.

And if you want to apply a skin to it you will destroy the paint job.

And the controllers lose wireless connection.

And cell phone games are good enough for most people.

Stock is at 26 bucks about right now. I'm thinking with the failure of the Switch it should go below $10 a share.

Only problem might be the Switch fails fast and Nintendo quickly transitions to a software shop. But given their stubbornness, and Japanese culture, it looks like they will probably suffer a slow death via their hardware division and the Switch.

Yeah, maybe. It is evident that while Sony paid attention to the mistakes of the PS3 and came back roaring with a vengeance with the PS4 that the same cannot be said of Nintendo with the Wii U to the Switch. "Friend Codes" again? Smart Phone match ups?? The system is shipping without online gaming for months and even the online store needed to be patched in. This system just wasn't ready for prime time and neither was Nintendo. If not for Zelda it'd be DOA. I say this as a hardcore Nintendo nerd.

 

[Sonikku]

And then there's this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xM6aJYruJjc

I rest my case.

 

[FIVR]

I'm def shorting nvidia. That stock is pure hype at 70 P/E and $120 a share (which is when i shorted it)

 

[Miramonti]

Perhaps in theory, but in practice I'd much rather short call spreads.

 

[FIVR]

I don't know about this switch thing. It seems like a crappy tablet from 2014 with control sticks stuck on to it? But nintendo can usually sell crap like that for $200. I don't know about $300 tho, that's just a bit more expensive than most americans are willing to spend on dime-store level japenese video game hackery.

 

[brianmanahan]

@desura we got this stock thread thingie: https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/official-2017-stock-market-thread.2495701

 

[KeithTalent]

It's hard for me to get a real handle on how this thing is being received; I am in a weird bubble online and everywhere I look in that bubble (here, Youtube, game reviewers) it is getting pretty positive reviews and the new Zelda, which, after watching nearly three hours of gameplay looks incredibly dull to me, is getting rave reviews. That's all well and good but I'm not sure this thing is going to capture to the general audience in the real world and provide the sales they need.

The one commercial I've seen on tv does nothing to even really show the system and its capabilities off all that well, it just shows some weird party stuff which does not seem as relatable as the original Wii stuff looked, even though by the commercial it appears to be going for the same market. We shall see, but I'm really not convinced by the thing yet.

KT

 

[desura]

It's hard for me to get a real handle on how this thing is being received; I am in a weird bubble online and everywhere I look in that bubble (here, Youtube, game reviewers) it is getting pretty positive reviews and the new Zelda, which, after watching nearly three hours of gameplay looks incredibly dull to me, is getting rave reviews. That's all well and good but I'm not sure this thing is going to capture to the general audience in the real world and provide the sales they need.

The one commercial I've seen on tv does nothing to even really show the system and its capabilities off all that well, it just shows some weird party stuff which does not seem as relatable as the original Wii stuff looked, even though by the commercial it appears to be going for the same market. We shall see, but I'm really not convinced by the thing yet.

KT

Game reviewers are weird. Like, they gave metal gear solid 4 perfect 10's. I played it and it was a terrible terrible game. They tend to slobber over anything with Zelda in the title too.

The Kinect is about the same thing as what Nintendo has built in, and MS abandoned it pretty quickly. But MS always had the sheer power to fall back on.

 

[louis redfoot]

it looks like an ipad with controllers

 

[DaveSimmons]

At $100 more than an Xbox 1 S on sale, you've got to really love Nintendo titles, really want a portable with 720p gaming, or be willing to pay to own all the consoles.

I have no idea what the size of that market will be.

 

[JujuFish]

At $100 more than an Xbox 1 S on sale, you've got to really love Nintendo titles, really want a portable with 720p gaming, or be willing to pay to own all the consoles.

I have no idea what the size of that market will be.

I'd take a Nintendo console over a Microsoft one any day of the week.

 

[zerocool84]

The only thing Nintendo has going for it is they have tons of cash on hand from the success of the Wii and the still ongoing huge success of the 3DS which prints them money. They have enough money to keep throwing at the Switch to eventually make it successful, kind of like Microsoft and the first Xbox. It wasn't good but they kept at it and eventually got it.

 

[DaveSimmons]

I'd take a Nintendo console over a Microsoft one any day of the week.

Switch also costs more than a PS4 Slim. If you'd also prefer a Switch to that then you are in my "really love Nintendo titles" group.

 

[FelixDeCat]

< Consoles and Gaming forum

 

[JujuFish]

Switch also costs more than a PS4 Slim. If you'd also prefer a Switch to that then you are in my "really love Nintendo titles" group.

I probably am in the "really love Nintendo titles" group, but I also love plenty of Sony's exclusive franchises as well.

 

[darkswordsman17]

At $100 more than an Xbox 1 S on sale, you've got to really love Nintendo titles, really want a portable with 720p gaming, or be willing to pay to own all the consoles.

I have no idea what the size of that market will be.

There's a lot of people out there that do. For fuck's sake they're selling every single NES Classic they can for $60 and likely would if it was $100.

 

[darkswordsman17]

The only thing Nintendo has going for it is they have tons of cash on hand from the success of the Wii and the still ongoing huge success of the 3DS which prints them money. They have enough money to keep throwing at the Switch to eventually make it successful, kind of like Microsoft and the first Xbox. It wasn't good but they kept at it and eventually got it.

Only thing? Their franchises alone are worth a lot. If they find someone with some real vision, Pokemon alone could probably keep them in the green.

Actually the 3DS was almost a flop, and that's why the people saying Nintendo is about to crash and fail I think are massively misguided. I do think Nintendo rushed the Switch out, and I really don't know why (only thing I can think is they wanted to hit people getting their tax refund checks in the US?). Maybe it was rushed to stop all the questions about the Wii U (appease stockholders more than gamers). If they'd waited they could have polished the system more and likely could have gone with the newer Tegra chip which would have significant benefits for them. But that might be earmarked for a "Lite" or "DSi" style update. But there's room to adjust. I have a hunch Nintendo can (and will if they see similar signs to the 3DS) drop the price $50. Maybe even $100 (I think Nintendo themselves even said that $200 is basically the price point that brings the biggest sales for hardware). They can also probably reduce the battery, cut corners on the display, sell the dock separately (sure the dock is cheap, but they can charge probably $30-50 for it separately), to get the price down.

It will take a price drop before the Switch starts selling really well (think that has been true of just about all of their portables). It'll be able to do versions of all the games that make their portable stuff sell, plus they can port most of the Wii U library over for a quick buck while they develop new versions of their big franchises (Mario Kart, Smash Bros, etc).

So yes, another botched Nintendo system. I still think it will be a success in spite of Nintendo.

 

[JujuFish]

I do think Nintendo rushed the Switch out, and I really don't know why (only thing I can think is they wanted to hit people getting their tax refund checks in the US?).

The Japanese fiscal year ends on March 31. I'm sure that had something to do with it.

 

[desura]

Might as well throw this out there...but if I ran Nintendo, I'd hack the old classic games to make them multiplayer over the internet. So like make a 2player version of Super Mario Bros 3 based on the original SMB3 code.

 

[Sonikku]

Only thing? Their franchises alone are worth a lot. If they find someone with some real vision, Pokemon alone could probably keep them in the green.

Actually the 3DS was almost a flop, and that's why the people saying Nintendo is about to crash and fail I think are massively misguided. I do think Nintendo rushed the Switch out, and I really don't know why (only thing I can think is they wanted to hit people getting their tax refund checks in the US?). Maybe it was rushed to stop all the questions about the Wii U (appease stockholders more than gamers). If they'd waited they could have polished the system more and likely could have gone with the newer Tegra chip which would have significant benefits for them. But that might be earmarked for a "Lite" or "DSi" style update. But there's room to adjust. I have a hunch Nintendo can (and will if they see similar signs to the 3DS) drop the price $50. Maybe even $100 (I think Nintendo themselves even said that $200 is basically the price point that brings the biggest sales for hardware). They can also probably reduce the battery, cut corners on the display, sell the dock separately (sure the dock is cheap, but they can charge probably $30-50 for it separately), to get the price down.

It will take a price drop before the Switch starts selling really well (think that has been true of just about all of their portables). It'll be able to do versions of all the games that make their portable stuff sell, plus they can port most of the Wii U library over for a quick buck while they develop new versions of their big franchises (Mario Kart, Smash Bros, etc).

So yes, another botched Nintendo system. I still think it will be a success in spite of Nintendo.

But man, just think where'd Nintendo would be if not for Nintendo.

 

[Cappuccino]

And then there's this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xM6aJYruJjc

I rest my case.

the like and dislike ratio is more cuter

 

[desura]

Seriously! Nintendo should be moving into VR.

 

[Capt Caveman]

the Switch looks like it will be a huge flop. Barely more powerful than the 4 year old Wii U, it has a lot of moving parts which will mean higher warranty costs, and it has some really bad design decisions like the useless dock which doesn't contain any processing power and which also scratches the screen.

And if you want to apply a skin to it you will destroy the paint job.

And the controllers lose wireless connection.

And cell phone games are good enough for most people.

Stock is at 26 bucks about right now. I'm thinking with the failure of the Switch it should go below $10 a share.

Only problem might be the Switch fails fast and Nintendo quickly transitions to a software shop. But given their stubbornness, and Japanese culture, it looks like they will probably suffer a slow death via their hardware division and the Switch.

Less than $10 a share? Please provide your valuation on how Switch cost more than 50% of the company's worth.