[Serious] How soon until robots take over the planet?

[z1ggy]

Check out "Humans Need Not Apply." It's a YouTube video about artificial intelligence and how its all going to affect our culture in the near future. The video is 2 years old.

The video is kinda depressing because it shows that in many scenarios we can just eliminate many of the job positions today.

https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU

Robots and automation are almost guaranteed to happen in replacing most unskilled, and even skilled jobs. Just think... Watson can already do 100% of what a doctor can do, but it just doesn't interact with a patient. That's pretty much all that's left. Once we figure out how to get AI to have human emotions and understanding, there's pretty much no reason why they can't do almost every single task we currently do. And better, too.

 

[BarkingGhostar]

I am more than happy with robots and AI taking charge of cows. Just look at the current political scene and you only have to enbrace the new, mechanical and artificial overlords.

 

[deustroop]

Remember what happened the last time them mechs got outa hand ?

Daisey daisey give me your answer true
I'm half crazy all for the ............

 

[GagHalfrunt]

I am more than happy with robots and AI taking charge of cows. Just look at the current political scene and you only have to enbrace the new, mechanical and artificial overlords.

Maybe the cows and robots are really working together and they're successfully hiding it.

 

[z1ggy]

Maybe the cows and robots are really working together and they're successfully hiding it.

If they were intelligent enough.... We'd never know...

 

[William Gaatjes]

I eagerly await the day when I can upload myself to a sexy female robot body that wears a bikini and a coat to my day job at Public Security Section 9.

I watched surrogates last weekend with Bruce Willis. If AI does not catch on but robotics still advances, you might get your wish.

Edit:
Better without pictures, gives the movie away...

 

[TheGardener]

I wonder if the AI robots will profile humans.

 

[HamburgerBoy]

itt I learn that it's apparently customary for lowercase l's to be taller than uppercase I's. I suppose I'd rather have AI take over than a man named Al.

 

[Muse]

Robots and automation are almost guaranteed to happen in replacing most unskilled, and even skilled jobs. Just think... Watson can already do 100% of what a doctor can do, but it just doesn't interact with a patient. That's pretty much all that's left. Once we figure out how to get AI to have human emotions and understanding, there's pretty much no reason why they can't do almost every single task we currently do. And better, too.

I'll tell you what. One of my best friends in high school later went to the California Institute of Technology. He introduced me to one of the friends he made there and we had a discussion and he maintained basically what I bolded above. I told him that he was absolutely wrong. My position: AI/robots could never accomplish/experience what humans are capable of on the highest levels. The fact of the matter is that what human's are capable of on the highest level, on the levels that matter, involve consciousness, real consciousness, spirituality, satisfaction, inspiration, bliss. Now this was about 1967 or so. I have not changed my mind. It was not very long (probably less than a year) after I had this discussion with this guy that I was informed that he'd blown his brains out.

 

[MongGrel]

Not soon enough. Mankind had a chance and got stupider instead of smarter. We deserve to get replaced by our metal overlords.

Or hopefully merg and evolve.

I'm all for ASI. It would radically change things one way or the other.

It is a scary concept.

There is serious thought in the AI community that the 2nd level of AI (the one to really worry about) will be upon us in the next 30-50 years. Once that hits the 3 level (Super Intelligent AI) will take exponentially less time.

At that point it could go either way, wipe out all life on purpose/by accident (paperclip manufacturing) or lead to THE golden age of humankind.

Long but pretty good read
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html

That was a very well written read IMHO.

 

[John Connor]

[Serious] How soon until robots take over the planet?

About 2029, trust me on this.

Then by 2035 Congress adds a new Amendment to the Constitution stating that AI can not run for President. By 2040, countries who did use AI for a President/Prime Minister declare war on the west and full scale nuclear war begins. This is how it starts folks. Once AI becomes part of a primary decision process without any remorse you can kiss your ass good bye.

 

[ImpulsE69]

What if they already have, and The Matrix movies were made by the machines as an joke on us because it was really a documentary.

 

[John Connor]

What if they already have, and The Matrix movies were made by the machines as an joke on us because it was really a documentary.

That kind of free thinking is not allowed number 45311000-ANT. You will now be exterminated.

 

[agent00f]

There is serious thought in the AI community that the 2nd level of AI (the one to really worry about) will be upon us in the next 30-50 years. Once that hits the 3 level (Super Intelligent AI) will take exponentially less time.

At that point it could go either way, wipe out all life on purpose/by accident (paperclip manufacturing) or lead to THE golden age of humankind.

Long but pretty good read
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html

It's quite possible if not likely that with current state of lithography (ie. moore's law) general AI would never happen and certainly never be commonplace due to prohibitive cost. More specifically the current semi mask scaling regime is hardly returning exponential gains anymore. Cost issue aside it's also rather conceivable that it requires technical innovation rather beyond human ability.

To bear out that last claim, notice that grand pronouncement for the field tend to be made by people not really doing any meaningful work in it. Actual researchers have been working on this stuff for decades with only marginal instead of accelerating progress. The new "breakthroughs" tend to be the side-effect of brute force rather than any deep insight into the thinking process. So basically laymen are being led around by the wishful thinking of speculators instead of even informed optimism.

 

[z1ggy]

I'll tell you what. One of my best friends in high school later went to the California Institute of Technology. He introduced me to one of the friends he made there and we had a discussion and he maintained basically what I bolded above. I told him that he was absolutely wrong. My position: AI/robots could never accomplish/experience what humans are capable of on the highest levels. The fact of the matter is that what human's are capable of on the highest level, on the levels that matter, involve consciousness, real consciousness, spirituality, satisfaction, inspiration, bliss. Now this was about 1967 or so. I have not changed my mind. It was not very long (probably less than a year) after I had this discussion with this guy that I was informed that he'd blown his brains out.

The problem with this is that fundamentally, we as humans really don't even know what "consciousness" even is. All these "emotions" and things you describe are just chemicals, signals from the brain using electricity and the such. There is nothing particularly special or earth shattering about that. The main thing that holds us back from accepting or predicting our own future is that our brains just can't comprehend what things we are actually capable of, because the means to create those things in the first place don't yet exist. It's almost a catch 22 of sorts.

Even just 30-40 years ago, do you think people truly thought those giant computers they just invented that were the size of small houses, would be thousands of times more powerful, but fit in our pockets?

Even if we are not currently following Moore's law this year, or even for the past few years, the whole point to the exponential curve is there is breakthroughs along the way that take flatness from the curve and turn it into almost an impulse like response. Something like quantum computing, or a big discovery at CERN could be the start block to the next "big thing". We just don't know.

 

[Ruptga]

It's quite possible if not likely that with current state of lithography (ie. moore's law) general AI would never happen and certainly never be commonplace due to prohibitive cost. More specifically the current semi mask scaling regime is hardly returning exponential gains anymore. Cost issue aside it's also rather conceivable that it requires technical innovation rather beyond human ability.

To bear out that last claim, notice that grand pronouncement for the field tend to be made by people not really doing any meaningful work in it. Actual researchers have been working on this stuff for decades with only marginal instead of accelerating progress. The new "breakthroughs" tend to be the side-effect of brute force rather than any deep insight into the thinking process. So basically laymen are being led around by the wishful thinking of speculators instead of even informed optimism.

The AI effect occurs when onlookers discount the behavior of an artificial intelligence program by arguing that it is not real intelligence.

Pamela McCorduck writes: "It's part of the history of the field of artificial intelligence that every time somebody figured out how to make a computer do something—play good checkers, solve simple but relatively informal problems—there was chorus of critics to say, 'that's not thinking'." AI researcher Rodney Brooks complains "Every time we figure out a piece of it, it stops being magical; we say, 'Oh, that's just a computation.'"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect

 

[agent00f]

The problem with this is that fundamentally, we as humans really don't even know what "consciousness" even is. All these "emotions" and things you describe are just chemicals, signals from the brain using electricity and the such. There is nothing particularly special or earth shattering about that. The main thing that holds us back from accepting or predicting our own future is that our brains just can't comprehend what things we are actually capable of, because the means to create those things in the first place don't yet exist. It's almost a catch 22 of sorts.

Even just 30-40 years ago, do you think people truly thought those giant computers they just invented that were the size of small houses, would be thousands of times more powerful, but fit in our pockets?

Even if we are not currently following Moore's law this year, or even for the past few years, the whole point to the exponential curve is there is breakthroughs along the way that take flatness from the curve and turn it into almost an impulse like response. Something like quantum computing, or a big discovery at CERN could be the start block to the next "big thing". We just don't know.

I don't think there's much controversy that the vernacular "intelligence" is an emergent property of some nervous systems. Unfortunately those properties are incredibly complex and poorly understood, and therefore atm impossible to replicate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect

I might know a thing or two about AI.

 

[Muse]

The problem with this is that fundamentally, we as humans really don't even know what "consciousness" even is. All these "emotions" and things you describe are just chemicals, signals from the brain using electricity and the such. There is nothing particularly special or earth shattering about that. The main thing that holds us back from accepting or predicting our own future is that our brains just can't comprehend what things we are actually capable of, because the means to create those things in the first place don't yet exist. It's almost a catch 22 of sorts.

Even just 30-40 years ago, do you think people truly thought those giant computers they just invented that were the size of small houses, would be thousands of times more powerful, but fit in our pockets?

Even if we are not currently following Moore's law this year, or even for the past few years, the whole point to the exponential curve is there is breakthroughs along the way that take flatness from the curve and turn it into almost an impulse like response. Something like quantum computing, or a big discovery at CERN could be the start block to the next "big thing". We just don't know.

Consciousness on planet earth is and will remain most meaningful as a human experience and when you have it you know:

‘Though it seems that I know that I know,
What I would like to see, is the I that knows me,
When I know, that I know, that I know.’ - Alan Watts

Machines will never exult in great music, in the appreciation of life's finer subtleties.

Yes, we couldn't predict 50 years ago things that are going on now, but that does not predict the ascendency of machines as super human, ever, at least not in the ways that matter the most.

What is it with you guys? You seem to have a hemorrhaging inferiority complex.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

. Once AI becomes part of a primary decision process without any remorse you can kiss your ass good bye.

I'll be happy if any form of intelligence becomes part of the primary decision process. Last few Presidents intelligence is hard to find and going forward it looks even worse. Hopefully the robots look at Hillary vs Donald as the reason that they should take over. We've clearly fucked up so badly that we have to be replaced.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I imagine the government could be replaced with a small shell script running on a Raspberry Pi in the janitorial closet of white house / parliament and it would do a better job than the current system.

 

[agent00f]

I'll be happy if any form of intelligence becomes part of the primary decision process. Last few Presidents intelligence is hard to find and going forward it looks even worse. Hopefully the robots look at Hillary vs Donald as the reason that they should take over. We've clearly fucked up so badly that we have to be replaced.

Machines aren't going to fix stupid voters, like the the sort who think they're smarter than successful politicians.

 

[Ruptga]

Machines aren't going to fix stupid voters, like the the sort who think they're smarter than successful politicians.

Or the people that can't understand the difference between intelligent politicking and intelligent policy. Being good at getting attention and maintaining a following is not impressive, even a Kardashian can manage that.

 

[z1ggy]

I don't think there's much controversy that the vernacular "intelligence" is an emergent property of some nervous systems. Unfortunately those properties are incredibly complex and poorly understood, and therefore atm impossible to replicate.



I might know a thing or two about AI.

At the moment.

 

[Mandres]

There is serious thought in the AI community that the 2nd level of AI (the one to really worry about) will be upon us in the next 30-50 years. Once that hits the 3 level (Super Intelligent AI) will take exponentially less time.

At that point it could go either way, wipe out all life on purpose/by accident (paperclip manufacturing) or lead to THE golden age of humankind.

Long but pretty good read
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html

Fascinating, and completely terrifying. Thanks for the links. It should be required reading before posting in threads like this.

 

[agent00f]

Or the people that can't understand the difference between intelligent politicking and intelligent policy. Being good at getting attention and maintaining a following is not impressive, even a Kardashian can manage that.

"Last few Presidents intelligence is hard to find". Stupid people often label what they don't understand as stupid. Policy/politics or a social following are often not well understood.

At the moment.

I mentioned above reasons why the moment reflects the future. Generally in any field the low hanging fruit comes first and it turns out in AI there's not much.