[semiaccurate] Coffee Lake points to issues with Intel’s 10nm process

[raghu78]

http://semiaccurate.com/2016/12/28/coffee-lake-says-dire-things-intels-10nm-problems/

https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/5k31sr/i_bought_canard_pc_there_you_go/

This person is saying that Canard PC are also saying that Cannon lake is delayed. I would like people who have access to canard PC's latest issue to confirm what they have stated about Intel and Cannonlake. The more damning statement is that Cannonlake too features no significant architectural improvement. With Kabylake having the same IPC as Skylake and no announcements from Intel about Coffee Lake architectural improvements if any this is going to mean Intel will not have any major architectural improvement from Q3 2015 to late 2019.
​

 

[witeken]

no announcements from Intel about Coffee Lake architectural improvements

Intel hasn't even formally disclosed Coffee Lake.

They will -- presumably -- talk about the future in their Investor Meeting 2017 on February 9, which is before Ryzen release.

 

[raghu78]

Intel hasn't even formally disclosed Coffee Lake.

They will -- presumably -- talk about the future in their Investor Meeting 2017 on February 9, which is before Ryzen release.

Intel generally revealed their achitectures atleast a year in advance. Skylake was demoed at IDF 2014 and launched in Q3 2015.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/8510/idf-2014-intel-demonstrates-skylake-due-h22015

Coffee Lake is clearly a backup plan and not on Intel's product roadmap till a few quarters ago since 10nm is not going to be ready for high end desktops and notebooks in 2018. Right now the indications are we are not even going to see Coffee Lake in any form launch in 2017. The information coming from semiaccurate and canard PC is that Coffee Lake is not in good shape and there are process issues which are not just yield related going to delay Coffee Lake.

btw Intel's model is Process Architecture Optimization . Broadwell -> Skylake -> Kabylake fit that model. Where does Coffee Lake fit that model.

 

[PhonakV30]

http://semiaccurate.com/2016/12/28/coffee-lake-says-dire-things-intels-10nm-problems/

https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/5k31sr/i_bought_canard_pc_there_you_go/

This person is saying that Canard PC are also saying that Cannon lake is delayed. I would like people who have access to canard PC's latest issue to confirm what they have stated about Intel and Cannonlake. The more damning statement is that Cannonlake too features no significant architectural improvement. With Kabylake having the same IPC as Skylake and no announcements from Intel about Coffee Lake architectural improvements if any this is going to mean Intel will not have any major architectural improvement from Q3 2015 to late 2019. ​

opps!

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[.vodka]

Coffee Lake is clearly a backup plan and not on Intel's product roadmap till a few quarters ago since 10nm is not going to be ready for high end desktops and notebooks in 2018. Right now the indications are we are not even going to see Coffee Lake in any form launch in 2017. The information coming from semiaccurate and canard PC is that Coffee Lake is not in good shape and there are process issues which are not just yield related going to delay Coffee Lake.

Agreed. Something has to keep the 14nm fabs going until the 10nm equipped ones are up to the task. It's an afterthought of a CPU at the last minute, and here they decide to bring 6 cores to the mainstream socket. Yeah, meh. Make it a proper product.

 

[DrMrLordX]

There shouldn't be any process issues delaying Coffee Lake since it's still 14nm, right? Wouldn't the process issues be delaying Cannon Lake and Ice Lake (10nm)?

 

[Arachnotronic]

btw Intel's model is Process Architecture Optimization . Broadwell -> Skylake -> Kabylake fit that model. Where does Coffee Lake fit that model.

while(!10nm_yields_acceptable){
    optimize(14nm_product_line); 
}

 

[frozentundra123456]

Charlie at Semi-accurate and some reddit poster that apparently got banned by his own admission from an AMD forum. Now there are two reliable, unbiased sources.


Edit: Now I am not saying intel is not having problems. But is there anything really definite to see here??

 

[raghu78]

Charlie at Semi-accurate and some reddit poster that apparently got banned by his own admission from an AMD forum. Now there are two reliable, unbiased sources.


Edit: Now I am not saying intel is not having problems. But is there anything really definite to see here??

BTW the poster is quoting canard pc. That's why I asked if anybody who has read their latest issue could confirm the same.

 

[BeepBeep2]

The guy that got banned got banned from the AMD Subreddit for posting the magazine pics. Nothing else afaik.
So he posted them in /r/AMD_Stock

 

[krumme]

Agreed. Something has to keep the 14nm fabs going until the 10nm equipped ones are up to the task. It's an afterthought of a CPU at the last minute, and here they decide to bring 6 cores to the mainstream socket. Yeah, meh. Make it a proper product.

6c skl instead of 4c is super. With oc we had more or less same perf for 6 years so this actually makes a difference for once.
At 14nm they can print them cheap so all is nice. Whats not to like.
It means i3 2c 4t is dead and moved to low end pentium life. About time.
Zen plus is well underway and when Intel 10nm hits at desktop we are probably at 7nm zen plus plus at desktop too. About same process perf. So it looks like we are saved after 10 years of starvation and funding Intel shareholders with our high margin 4c. Now comes 10 golden years

 

[IntelUser2000]

I typed parts of the article into google translate. Its what the reddit guy said, but its still shocking. Kraznich sounds like someone with a mental instability. Almost sounds like someone trying to ruin the company in purpose. Rash decisions, squeezing employees for cost reductions, firing of its veteran(and most valued) workforce, control freak wanting to rule over everything with an iron fist.

I used to read articles about Blackberry(formerly known as RIM). Companies in decline do so not only because of market force, but because they make decisions that accelerate their demise. Intel is doing it now. Of course the market situation is not easy. Regardless, the current management is crazy.

Just listing the high-profile employees that were removed thanks to Kraznich nevermind the thousands of regular workers.
Renee James(software)
Joel Emer(described as an CPU architect now working for Nvidia)
Rani Borkar(director of development)
Kirk Skaugen(PC division)
Keshavan Tiruvallur(Validation chief)
Doug Davis(IoT)

Duties that Justin Rattner was reponsible for was taken over by Kraznich. I've wondered for a while what that guy was doing. I realized since couple of years ago that future-related research drastically dropped at IDF. Thanks Kraznich. Rip out the heart of the company. Ever wondered where their $10 billion annual R&D went to and why certain people were saying R&D to product ratio was crap at Intel? There ya go. Even Mr. Barrett was a star compared to this guy. Actually, Barrett left a great legacy. It was his manufacturing expertise that gave Intel its process leadership. Of course, destruction comes far easier.

Death is coming for this company. I'd give it 10 years. Rather rapid considering how big they are. But if you start to go at its foundation, the whole thing will fall. I think the biggest mistake companies make is they start to focus on the company, rather than its people. So they start slashing R&D and micro-managing people(annoying those involved) to save a few bucks and keep it alive for few more years. Without the people, its worth nothing. You start to treat them like crap, and you get crap in return.

Will a new CEO help? Probably. If he's sane. But based on what CPC is saying, the old-timers with the experience gone, it'll be very difficult to reverse the trend. He'll need to prove the WHOLE thing will change for the better.

 

[Andrei.]

I actually read the full Intel article from Canard since I speak French. Here's the most important points:

• They say Intel's in the most precarious time ever in its existence.
• Employees blame Krzanich as the main cause, he's impatient and eager and keeps changing/canceling projects before they get anywhere.
• Many employees/engineers got fired in recent times and they say Krzanich treats engineers (replacing them) like supermarket cashiers, many new hires are inexperienced and not getting trained well enough. The mood in the company is at an all-time low and many employees are in fear for their jobs.
• Murphy Renduchintala is said to actually be a glimmer of hope in the whole mess as since he's been brought on he's been able to focus R&D properly and actually has technical background and makes decisions that engineers are able to get behind on. Some say they're hoping he'll replace Krzanich as CEO once they hope he'll get the boot from the board.
• 10nm is suffering all kinds of problems, both technical as well as management problems. The first samples that got in apparently were extremely disappointing in performance, not to talk about yields.
• Kaby-Lake as well as Cannon-Lake were supposedly late designs just to save face and management was just hoping AMD wouldn't compete. Cannon-Lake is said to bring almost no architectural improvements.
• 10nm will sample in late 2017 but production won't happen till 2018.
• Intel has nothing concrete till 2019.
• Long-term, Intel is said to be very worried about x86 as ARM is gaining ever more. If they can't keep Apple happy in the Macbooks that would be the first sign of the decline of x86.
• Because of the above, they say that they have one CPU project which can do hybrid x86/ARM execution and they say they'll have the first prototype wafers with this within the next few months.
• There's an Intel CPU AMD GPU MCM in the works.

They state the sources on all of this were off-the record interviews with both current and ex-employees.

 

[IntelUser2000]

• Murphy Renduchintala is said to actually be a glimmer of hope in the whole mess as since he's been brought on he's been able to focus R&D properly and actually has technical background and makes decisions that engineers are able to get behind on. Some say they're hoping he'll replace Krzanich as CEO once they hope he'll get the boot from the board

Thanks for the summary. I wish I could speak French so I can read about all the details a summary won't show. Like word-for-word detail. Without resorting to google translate.

I've read another article talking about how Murphy was a hard-ass control freak. Perhaps he's better than Kraznich. If that's true though, and the problems are bad as they say, he won't be able to do much.

• Kaby-Lake as well as Cannon-Lake well supposedly late designs just to save face and management was just hoping AMD wouldn't compete. Cannon-Lake is said to bring almost no architectural improvements.

Cannonlake was never supposed to have big architectural improvements. It was the "tick" in the Tick/Tock line. A process shrink. Maybe few critical changes if we got lucky(remember with Westmere we got zero architectural changes). The issue was that we got Kabylake when Cannonlake was supposed to arrive.

 

[krumme]

Look at the frontpage. The main story is not zen but actually about Intel. And its a dire picture.
I have been saying for years he was weak. He looks like a plantmanager to me that should at most go to coo if foundry business was even seen as the most important (and as most of their cost go there they are probably inclined to think so - but thats a shitty reason). Intel cant seem to decide what they are; foundry or designing processors. It looks to me their identity is torn and its probably giving tons of fights and conflicts. Kraznich enter into that cultural minefield and he is obviously not man for the job. He simply doesnt have the competences for such dilemmas. The Trump disaster also shows he has no political understanding.

As i wrote other thread i think he is gone 2017 and unfortunately we will probably see tens of thousands jobs lost the next few years also

 

[NTMBK]

I wonder if the AMD Intel MCM part was AMD's plan B in case Zen was a dud?

 

[Andrei.]

I've read another article talking about how Murphy was a hard-ass control freak. Perhaps he's better than Kraznich. If that's true though, and the problems are bad as they say, he won't be able to do much.

They also quote at how Murphy sometimes can be heard screaming from the building across (some people mistranslated this as Krzanich being the one screaming), however they also say that at the same time he's able to actually take criticism without shooting the messenger and make decisions based on technical matters.

 

[krumme]

Fortunately for amd there wasnt a line of tall white christian male plant managers waiting to take ceo position after RR. They were forced to take an asian female. At least she wasnt fat and muslim. The irony...


Racism is not allowed here
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Anandtech Moderator

 

[vissarix]

Common guys, i cant believe you are discussing things said by intel ex-employees and Charlie Demerijan a well known die hard amd fanboy intel/nvidia hater...

0 Reliable information here..

 

[krumme]

Common guys, i cant believe you are discussing things said by intel ex-employees and Charlie Demerijan a well known die hard amd fanboy intel/nvidia hater...

0 Reliable information here..

Hello.
Read thread and info. Its not charlie or SA.

 

[CakeMonster]

My head hurts. Anyone mind explaining which chip does what? I'm a desktop user so with tick-tock-tock I expected the one after Kaby to be 10nm. Is that still correct? We've had BW-SL-KL so although BW was hardly released for desktop, we seem to have come to the end of 14nm?

Is the news that there will be another 14nm chip? What is Coffee or Cannon then? Will there be an almost 2 year gap before the next chip after KL is out?

 

[witeken]

I typed parts of the article into google translate. Its what the reddit guy said, but its still shocking. Kraznich sounds like someone with a mental instability.

And what sources does this magazine base this on? Or is it just speculation?

 

[krumme]

And what sources does this magazine base this on? Or is it just speculation?

Interviews of employees and ex employees. It might be wrong but its not speculation.

 

[krumme]

My head hurts. Anyone mind explaining which chip does what? I'm a desktop user so with tick-tock-tock I expected the one after Kaby to be 10nm. Is that still correct? We've had BW-SL-KL so although BW was hardly released for desktop, we seem to have come to the end of 14nm?

Is the news that there will be another 14nm chip? What is Coffee or Cannon then? Will there be an almost 2 year gap before the next chip after KL is out?

Tick broadwell 14nn
Tock skywell new arch
Tock kabylake same but slight process tweak
Tuck coffee lake same but 6c - think i7 replacement q1 2018
Tick canon lake 10nm minor arch improvement as in bw or ib 2019
Tock ice lake new arch...2020 at the earliest imo

Looking at the article and the 10nm woes they might skip cannon lake and go straight to ice lake.
Lets see. If zen is a hit history shows Intel can go into overdrive.

 

[jpiniero]

Cannonlake (at this point) is still coming, but only 2+2 U/Y models at the end of next year. Except there will also be 4+2 Kaby Refresh U models coming out sometime in August/September (?).