Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

[Kocicak]

The 3900X is not readilly available almost anywhere, it seems that the retailers are just slowly shipping their existing preorders with many more people waiting in the queue.

I already argued before that these two chiplet CPUs may be of short supply thanks to shortage od chiplets needed primarilly in the server CPUs. Will this shortage of two chiplet Ryzen CPUs go on for a long time? It seems it could.

 

[beginner99]

No idea to know without info from AMD. Could also be SKU misprediction eg. they expected more 3700x orders but less 3900x orders or simply less 3900x in general. This would been AMD would simply have to increase production of 3900x.

I'm not sure if supply should be an issue. Apple sells > 40 mio iphones per quarter. I would assume most of them are new ones with 7 nm A12 SOC. This soc is slightly bigger than a Zen2 chiplet. If we assume similar yields and production throughput TSMC should be capable of producing 40 mio zen 2 chiplets per quarter. if we assume average epyc/ryzen chip has 4 chiplets (it's probably less, most desktop is just 1) then that's 10 mio chips/quarter.

Unless they only get a small fraction of TSMC capacity, chip supply shouldn't be an issue. Another issue could be packaging / logistcs. After all there need to be enough chiplets and IO dies at the same place at the same time.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

By their latest publications, TSMC has spare 7nm capacity. In principle, AMD could ship plenty more cpus.

The problem, however, is that it takes >3 months for a chip to go from "I guess we need more product" to being in a box on a store shelf. By all accounts, AMD was genuinely surprised by Ryzen 3000 demand. That is, they ordered way too little, and even though they have probably already done what can be to fix this, it's still going to be more than a month before this is reflected in amounts available on the shelves.

If the Epyc launch blows them away too, this can cause another such delay.

 

[Abwx]

Using Mindfactory sales as basis we can easily spot the problem, they sold about 9000 6C chiplets (3600/3600X/3900X) and about 5000 8C chiplets (3700X/3800X)

It s obvious that they have much less dies with only 6 functional cores than 8C siblings, so they are likely short of the formers and have surely to use fully functional dies for the 6/12C SKUs, in the meantime supply is tight the time it take to adapt the production and selection of dies, for the same reasons they will have no difficulty when launching/supplying the 3950X.

 

[VirtualLarry]

It s obvious that they have much less dies with only 6 functional cores than 8C siblings, so they are likely short of the formers and have surely to use fully functional dies for the 6/12C SKUs,

Someone, please, invent "Core Unlocking" for AM4 / Ryzen 3rd-Gen CPUs!!!! Free the COARS! (*)

(*) Mis-spelling intentional.

 

[lopri]

I'm not sure if supply should be an issue. Apple sells > 40 mio iphones per quarter. I would assume most of them are new ones with 7 nm A12 SOC. This soc is slightly bigger than a Zen2 chiplet. If we assume similar yields and production throughput TSMC should be capable of producing 40 mio zen 2 chiplets per quarter. if we assume average epyc/ryzen chip has 4 chiplets (it's probably less, most desktop is just 1) then that's 10 mio chips/quarter.

It's about yield as well. Apple SOCs do not have to run at 4.0+ GHz. It seems to me that all SKUs with 8-core chiplets are running low in stock at the moment.

 

[DrMrLordX]

AMD is selling 3x as many CPUs as anticipated. Demand is through the roof. They could potentially sell more if they had any on the market.

I would expect supplies to be more robust in September or so.

 

[Hitman928]

AMD is selling 3x as many CPUs as anticipated. Demand is through the roof. They could potentially sell more if they had any on the market.

I would expect supplies to be more robust in September or so.

They are selling more than 3x the previous Zen generations in the launch time frame. We don't know how much they anticipated but safe to say, not that high of demand. They said they've already begun to distribute increased supply to meet the demand. Should start to show up in the next week or two (hopefully).

 

[DrMrLordX]

They are selling more than 3x the previous Zen generations in the launch time frame.

Good point. Not sure how badly their sales department screwed up this launch.

 

[Hitman928]

Good point. Not sure how badly their sales department screwed up this launch.

To be fair, more than 3x the demand of either of the previous 2 solid releases is hard to predict and even harder to convince the bean counters that you really do need that much supply. If they can give a sizeable distribution to meet or at least come close to meeting demand, they should be fine. It's not like Intel's coming out with something anytime soon that people will buy (or wait for) instead.

 

[Markfw]

I though I read that by 8/16 a big shipment would arrive at some places. Thats this Friday. Well, we will see, but long term I don't think it will be a problem, its just as others have said, 3x the demand of previous releases was a surprise, and they have to order more the be made, and that takes time. Hopefully this is not long term, but I think in 30 days we will know for sure.

 

[gorobei]

we went thru this sort of thing when the gf 8800gt came out. it likely isnt a matter of supply but of logistics.

on most releases, they fly a small number of units by air to supply the initial wave of buying. the bulk of the units comes by ship a month later.

if amd really was supply constrained, the retailers would be jacking up the prices exhorbitantly. if they are expecting the main shipment soon, they just put 'out of stock'.

 

[fleshconsumed]

I feel so lucky living near Microcenter. I got my open box 3700X for $280 a few weeks ago. My biggest dilemma now is should I hold out for 3900X or get another 3700X as a placeholder until 3900X are available.

 

[Paul98]

I was debating getting a 3900x, but since it hasn't been available and also bios issues, now planning on just going with the 3950x when that comes out. Not far off now, and any major issues should be resolved

 

[Kenmitch]

Huge demand is all. Need one....See one buy it! Procrastinators will be left in the dust.

Bestbuy.com actually had them in stock this AM. Of course they're sold out again, but it's the way it goes with new things in high demand.

 

[Kenmitch]

My not so local Microcenter shows they have 6 3900x's in stock. Anybody looking might want to check their local Microcenter to see if it's showing in stock.

 

[Kocicak]

I just noticed that AMD commented that a "special binning" will be necessary to produce the 3950X. If you realise that this "computing monster" will be probably in even higher demand than the 3900X, I start to believe that the shortage of these processors could really be a longer term problem.

If AMD bins these high quality chiplets, they also fit some high end Epyc server CPUs. AMD has much higher "return on chiplet" in Epyc CPUs, and that makes me believe that AMD can actually happily live with Ryzen shortage, produce some just because they have been announced and must be produced and not even try to cover the market demand.

 

[Hitman928]

I just noticed that AMD commented that a "special binning" will be necessary to produce the 3950X. If you realise that this "computing monster" will be probably in even higher demand than the 3900X, I start to believe that the shortage of these processors could really be a longer term problem.

If AMD bins these high quality chiplets, they also fit some high end Epyc server CPUs. AMD has much higher "return on chiplet" in Epyc CPUs, and that makes me believe that AMD can actually happily live with Ryzen shortage, produce some just because they have been announced and must be produced and not even try to cover the market demand.

Chips you would bin for 3950x and chips you'd bin for Epyc wouldn't have much overlap. They are addressing very different targets (high frequency vs high efficiency).

 

[Markfw]

In stock at amazon for 499.99 for how long I don't know.

Edit, like I need a hole in my head, but I just ordered number 3.

 

[tech960]

In stock at amazon for 499.99 for how long I don't know.

Edit, like I need a hole in my head, but I just ordered number 3.

I'm thinkin we might have to stage an intervention for Markfw and these TR/Ryzen chips, lol

 

[Atari2600]

Chips you would bin for 3950x and chips you'd bin for Epyc wouldn't have much overlap. They are addressing very different targets (high frequency vs high efficiency).

The only EYPC they might overlap with will be whatever replaces the 7371 - but of course you would expect heavy overlap with the threadripper dies.

 

[Thunder 57]

In stock at amazon for 499.99 for how long I don't know.

Edit, like I need a hole in my head, but I just ordered number 3.

EDIT

Misread your post. I thought you said you just ordered 3, not number 3.

 

[lopri]

Interestingly, 6-core chips have gone down in price slightly.

3600 = $197.85
3600X = $239.00

 

[Kenmitch]

I'm thinkin we might have to stage an intervention for Markfw and these TR/Ryzen chips, lol

He is up there in the years....Better Safer to chase the cores than the whores.

 

[Hitman928]

3700x is out of stock (unless you want to pay more than a 3800x for it) at Amazon and Newegg but looks like it's in stock at Best Buy.

https://www.bestbuy.com/site/amd-ry...ghz-desktop-processor/6356277.p?skuId=6356277