Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

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Tup3x

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Dec 31, 2016
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3900X is basically 2x3600X minus IO die. I'd imagine single 3900X being cheaper to produce than 2x3600X while still having good margins. Unless binning is really causing problem if it's not I wouldn't be surprised if it drops around or closer to 450 € during next few months.
 

IEC

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3900X is basically 2x3600X minus IO die. I'd imagine single 3900X being cheaper to produce than 2x3600X while still having good margins. Unless binning is really causing problem if it's not I wouldn't be surprised if it drops around or closer to 450 € during next few months.
It would be more accurate to state that 3900X is basically a top-binned 6-core chiplet + a chiplet closer to a 3600X. A 3600X never boosts to 4.65GHz (3900X ST clock maximum). From what we've seen so far, the top bins are the scarcest, with demand outpacing supply.

Either way, I agree it will likely drop in price in 2020, but in my estimation it will be primarily because the 4000 series on 7nm+ will once again deliver improved IPC and clockspeeds. So perhaps in a 6-12 month timeframe once the 4000 series is readily available.
 

Ajay

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Jan 8, 2001
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Either way, I agree it will likely drop in price in 2020, but in my estimation it will be primarily because the 4000 series on 7nm+ will once again deliver improved IPC and clockspeeds. So perhaps in a 6-12 month timeframe once the 4000 series is readily available.
Hopefully, AMD learned their lesson on Ryzen 3000 and won’t set boost clocks too high. Otherwise we'll have another supply issue all over again.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Hopefully, AMD learned their lesson on Ryzen 3000 and won’t set boost clocks too high. Otherwise we'll have another supply issue all over again.
I expect Zen3 to have similar boost clocks but higher MT boost clocks (with variation based on workload intensity). Their top boost clock probably won't go up by more than 100 MHz, but actual clocks will be much more compelling.
 
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Markfw

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VERY HAPPY with the 3900x!:)
OK, this id good that you are happy with the 3900x. I see you also have a 9900k. So what do you do with each one, and how do they compare ?
 
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IEC

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OK, this id good that you are happy with the 3900x. I see you also have a 9900k. So what do you do with each one, and how do they compare ?
Seems like that should be its own thread, as it's not relevant to the topic here.
 

ksec

Senior member
Mar 5, 2010
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If they are having supply issues with specific models ( 3950 and 3970 ) it only means they priced those models too low.

I am wondering if the Supply issues might have to do with GF rather than TSMC. They are not making enough I/O Die. I dont for a moment believe TSMC are not willing to make arrangement to help AMD's marketshares.

Oh well, Zen 3 is coming, I guess those we waited that long might wait a little longer.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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If they are having supply issues with specific models ( 3950 and 3970 ) it only means they priced those models too low.
Yech, that's an ugly thought. Both products already have inflated prices vs. their other products (and based on their pricing behavior since 2017). But no they could just moderate the prices back towards MSRP by releasing more product.

I am wondering if the Supply issues might have to do with GF rather than TSMC.
Probably not. GF lost most of AMD's GPU business recently. That should have freed up a lot of wafers.
 

dlerious

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Mar 4, 2004
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I am wondering if the Supply issues might have to do with GF rather than TSMC. They are not making enough I/O Die. I dont for a moment believe TSMC are not willing to make arrangement to help AMD's marketshares.
TSMC sells everything they make currently. Until their expansion plans are complete, they don't have extra. Last I saw, the lead time was 6 months for orders.
 

Kenmitch

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Oct 10, 1999
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Last I saw, the lead time was 6 months for orders.
The million dollar question is who's who in the orders and the long waiting list. Guess TSMC is the only one that knows the big picture on orders and the waiting list for them.
 

Ajay

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Jan 8, 2001
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The million dollar question is who's who in the orders and the long waiting list. Guess TSMC is the only one that knows the big picture on orders and the waiting list for them.
AMD knows, but they aren’t talking. Well, aside from the earlier silly stuff about getting all the wafers they need. Like Intel, AMD didn’t expect the high demand for high core count CPUs.
 

Kocicak

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Jan 17, 2019
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... earlier silly stuff about getting all the wafers they need ...
They may have meant broader time frame... Perhaps supplies of the server CPUs are longer time frame affair and they judge consumer stuff with the same optics.

BTW two largest czech retailers and also german Mindfactory and other retailers have 3950X in stock.
 

lobz

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Feb 10, 2017
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AMD knows, but they aren’t talking. Well, aside from the earlier silly stuff about getting all the wafers they need. Like Intel, AMD didn’t expect the high demand for high core count CPUs.
Papermaster explicitly said a week ago in an interwiev - more like a Q/A stage event - that they expected good demand for their top of the line products, but the demand turned out to be even stronger for them, like much stronger.
 
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dlerious

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The million dollar question is who's who in the orders and the long waiting list. Guess TSMC is the only one that knows the big picture on orders and the waiting list for them.
I believe phones and IOT take up most of the chips. Apple is a big customer, but I don't know where they stand - have to be ahead of AMD I think.
 

gk1951

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Jul 7, 2019
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OK, this id good that you are happy with the 3900x. I see you also have a 9900k. So what do you do with each one, and how do they compare ?
Markfw, strictly gaming machines.
The 9900k is the fastest because it has the RTX 2080ti in it. The 3900x has a Radeon VII in it. Also very fast.
 

ksec

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Mar 5, 2010
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I believe phones and IOT take up most of the chips. Apple is a big customer, but I don't know where they stand - have to be ahead of AMD I think.
I believe Apple originally intended the A13 to be on N7+ EUV instead of N7P. Hence the slightly larger die size in A13 which was unusual. AMD's die with Desktop and and Server is at best one fifth of Apple's wafer demand.

Broadcom's 7nm Network processor are also delayed as well, basically the whole thing is very non-TSMC like. So I believe there is something else missing in the story / analysis.

But my main point is that AMD were not planning capacity aggressively enough. You cant always blame Foundry for capacity problem. These thing are sold well in advance. If they are happy with only ~7% Shares in Server Market Shipment in a perfect storm that Intel got caught up, then I think both sales and management needs to be better. And they need to do a lot better to justify their current share value.
 

HutchinsonJC

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Apr 15, 2007
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If they are having supply issues with specific models ( 3950 and 3970 ) it only means they priced those models too low.
I disagree that that's the only possible reasoning. One of the major considerations for AMDs pricing is Intel's pricing. And as mentioned already, it's believed AMD didn't anticipate this much demand and did not want to sit on unsold inventory.
 
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IEC

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Stick a fork in it, we now have a public comment from AMD:

We did have some shortfalls on chips when we first launched our highest performing Ryzens, and that was simply demand outstripping what we had expected and what we had planned for. That wasn’t a TSMC issue at all.
-Mark Papermaster, AMD CTO

Source: AnandTech
 

Markfw

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B&H Photo sent me an email, they are discontinuing the 3950x.
 

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