Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[RnR_au]

Putin doesn't negotiate, he only stalls. There is nothing to be gained with negotiating with a fascist who doesn't honor agreements. Nothing brokered by Trump will be possible either. He doesn't have any credibility on the world stage, not after years of sucking Putin's dick, not after breaking the Iran deal.

This is a good read that touches on the above;

Russia's reckoning is coming

Beyond the bluster of his meeting with President Trump, Vladimir Putin is in trouble. Isolated, outmanoeuvred, and stalled on the battlefield, Russia is tottering financially and militarily, while Zelensky's Ukraine continues to hold the upper hand.

engelsbergideas.com

 

[you2]

Hmm... If true then Putin will heading for the negotiating table soon, then what do Ukraine do? Negotiate? Or tough it out another 6 months and wait for the collapse?

Putin doesn't have to negotiate he can simply with drawl from Ukraine.

 

[cytg111]

Putin doesn't have to negotiate he can simply with drawl from Ukraine.

I suspect you understood what i meant

 

[Jaskalas]

Hmm... If true then Putin will heading for the negotiating table soon, then what do Ukraine do? Negotiate? Or tough it out another 6 months and wait for the collapse?

If Russia falters, they will not be able to hold the frontline. It would mean Ukraine gets to go on the offensive for the first time since 2022.

HOWEVER, that's a really freaking big IF Russia falters.
Their economic demise has been predicted for the entire duration of this war. Years are passing with zero tangible results.
Only serious damage to Russia's internal structure and the collapse of their frontline would convince me that it's finally happening.
Until then, nearly 1 million Orcs are occupying Ukraine and they each need a drone with their name on it.

 

[RnR_au]

Until then, nearly 1 million Orcs are occupying Ukraine and they each need a drone with their name on it.

Not really. After a couple of weeks without logistics most of the Russian defensive squads will be more than willing to surrender.

 

[Jaskalas]

Not really. After a couple of weeks without logistics most of the Russian defensive squads will be more than willing to surrender.

That's probably why the context of my post was skeptical of it ever happening. As it has been predicted of Russia since day 1.
Also why I added "until then". Meaning, until it happens, the task ahead remains dispensing with the meat waves.

 

[K1052]

Ukrainians successfully torched two Russian refineries overnight. Lot of hits. Moscow was already under pressure with 17% of Russian refining capacity offline due to damage. Increased Ukrainian success at targeting Russian energy assets could quickly turn in to a huge problem.

 

[RnR_au]

In relation to the refineries being torched seemingly at will, I came across this interesting notion;

https://bsky.app/profile/houfek.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3lxdkvdu7dc2y

The thread is interesting but I don't know if this is even possible. If Russia runs out of oil storage the pipes have stop pumping anyways. And from my understanding, oil flowing is one way to stop things from freezing.

 

[K1052]

In relation to the refineries being torched seemingly at will, I came across this interesting notion;

https://bsky.app/profile/houfek.bsky.social%2Fpost%2F3lxdkvdu7dc2y

The thread is interesting but I don't know if this is even possible. If Russia runs out of oil storage the pipes have stop pumping anyways. And from my understanding, oil flowing is one way to stop things from freezing.

They just crippled the Ust-Luga gas plant which is the largest gas processing facility in Europe and key for Russian LNG exports. Ukraine going after the Russian energy crown jewels is certainly on the table.

 

[RnR_au]

They just crippled the Ust-Luga gas plant which is the largest gas processing facility in Europe and key for Russian LNG exports. Ukraine going after the Russian energy crown jewels is certainly on the table.

Yes agreed on going after the crown jewels. I was wondering if the oil pipelines freezing was possible from a physics point of view.

If this is possible, then I have to agree with the poster I linked above. From their thread;

All of this is to say that if Russia does not find itself an exit ramp now, either they have one hell of a card up their sleeve, or they are deeply, profoundly stupid or hell-bent on their own destruction.

 

[cytg111]

If Russia falters, they will not be able to hold the frontline. It would mean Ukraine gets to go on the offensive for the first time since 2022.

HOWEVER, that's a really freaking big IF Russia falters.
Their economic demise has been predicted for the entire duration of this war. Years are passing with zero tangible results.
Only serious damage to Russia's internal structure and the collapse of their frontline would convince me that it's finally happening.
Until then, nearly 1 million Orcs are occupying Ukraine and they each need a drone with their name on it.

Sure.
Id take Putin actually engaging in peace talks as evidence that shit is getting real on the home front... In that situation what does Ukraine do? Suppose we are there where Ukraine is about to win this attrition thing, Putin steps forward, let me keep this land you can have EU troops and a deadzone bufferzone.
Ukraine recognizes that they've all but won this thing so incentive is to flip the bird, but if they do how will the Americans react? Trump will have a public meltdown on Ukraine and cut all support, sanction any European country that dare support Ukraine...