Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

Russian army back at trying to give Roscosmos competition.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1842845824599970172

 

[you2]

KABOOM:

Ukraine strikes a Russian oil hub as Zelenskyy says the war is in 'a very important phase'

Ukraine’s military claimed it struck a major oil terminal Monday in Crimea that provides fuel for Russia’s war effort as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the war has entered a key phase.

apnews.com

 

[K1052]

French armed forces minister indicates early 2025 delivery of Mirage 2000-5s to Ukraine. Air crew and ground crew training ongoing.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843539417413365926

 

[K1052]

Rheinmetall producing 700,000 155mm shells a year now thanks to expansion and their acquisition of Spanish munitions maker Expal.

Moving up to 1.1M in 26/27 as expansions in Germany, Lithuania, and Ukraine come online. By that time total Euro output probably north of 2M shells a year. US slated to reach 1.2M per year in 2025. Even if the war ended tomorrow these lines would still be needed as stockpiles have been diminished substantially. It might take most of a decade to refill them. On the plus side many of the shells provided to Ukraine were older designs and what will replace them are longer ranged and more lethal models.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843592076748832860

 

[Jaskalas]

Rheinmetall producing 700,000 155mm shells a year now thanks to expansion and their acquisition of Spanish munitions maker Expal.

Moving up to 1.1M in 26/27 as expansions in Germany, Lithuania, and Ukraine come online. By that time total Euro output probably north of 2M shells a year. US slated to reach 1.2M per year in 2025.

3.2 million shells /year, translates into firing 8 thousand shells / day.
Still less than Russia. But at least it would be a vast improvement for Ukraine's ability to fire back.
Shame the timeline is "two to three years" from now.

We also need to consider matching them in Glide Bombs.
Those things annihilate trench lines and fortified positions. Slaughtering the troops holding the line.

 

[K1052]

3.2 million shells /year, translates into firing 8 thousand shells / day.
Still less than Russia. But at least it would be a vast improvement for Ukraine's ability to fire back.
Shame the timeline is "two to three years" from now.

We also need to consider matching them in Glide Bombs.
Those things annihilate trench lines and fortified positions. Slaughtering the troops holding the line.

I think that fire rate probably eclipses current western tube production capacity. The Russians are also having a huge problem with this in particular and have been stripping them off stored equipment.

If we want to increase their field firepower mortars are probably where it's at right now. Lots and lots of 120mm mortars.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

What good are all the planes if the air isn't secure?

 

[fskimospy]

What good are all the planes if the air isn't secure?

Same reason they are good for the Russians despite them never achieving air superiority. You can fire a weapon further if you start from 30,000ft than if you start from 10ft.

 

[K1052]

Reportedly the results of an ATACMS strike.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843726966551363683

 

[RnR_au]

Some bits on the economy...

Meanwhile in Russia: state TV host Vladimir Solovyov and State Duma member Andrey Gurulyov threatened to decimate Ukraine and the West, but conceded that the Russian gov't will have to issue war bonds and "borrow money from the people" to fund its wars.

Source

The problem is that noone wants to buy Russian bonds...



Source

...and the Ruble keeps weakening making its war even more expensive from all the overseas components that have to be sourced.

 

[RnR_au]

Meanwhile in Kursk. Advance for the Ukrainians in Southern Korenevo...



... and in Belgorod, Russian settlements are permanently abandoned...



Source

 

[K1052]

Looks like another Russian munitions depot is having a warm evening.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843875051248177365

 

[K1052]

Seems to be the depot in Karachev….which at least on google earth is a bunch of sheds and giant piles of exposed munitions stored in the open air.

 

[Jaskalas]

Failure to retake the land bridge, means Kherson is no longer a viable city, or region. Nothing near the frontlines can sustain ordinary civilian life. As Russia uses 100 drones / day to hunt down all humans.

Russians expand their horrific "human safari" program in southern Ukraine, now averaging 100 attacks/day.

Residents and first responders are increasingly at risk, as drones strike civilian vehicles, including private cars, taxis, minibuses, public transport, volunteer trucks, and ambulances.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843698139611705442

 

[RnR_au]

Failure to retake the land bridge, means Kherson is no longer a viable city, or region. Nothing near the frontlines can sustain ordinary civilian life. As Russia uses 100 drones / day to hunt down all humans.

Russians expand their horrific "human safari" program in southern Ukraine, now averaging 100 attacks/day.

Residents and first responders are increasingly at risk, as drones strike civilian vehicles, including private cars, taxis, minibuses, public transport, volunteer trucks, and ambulances.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843698139611705442

They are trying to grind down the public support for the war inside Ukraine. There is some evidence that this support is sliding.

 

[K1052]

Ukraine has received another IRIS-T SLM battery along with two additional SLS launchers (which are integrated). Norway paid for part of the SLM.

This should be the 5th SLM battery Ukraine has received. Ultimately they will get a dozen or so.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843969675719491650

 

[trenchfoot]

I think that fire rate probably eclipses current western tube production capacity. The Russians are also having a huge problem with this in particular and have been stripping them off stored equipment.

If we want to increase their field firepower mortars are probably where it's at right now. Lots and lots of 120mm mortars.

Had a platoon of track mounted 120's rapid firing rounds behind us and then blazing the hell out of their hides in true shoot-n-scoot fashion. Those innocent looking pipes are very very loud. I really couldn't understand how their crews could withstand the decibels coming out of those tubes. They must've been collecting disability bennies for loss of hearing after getting their honorable's.

edit -terminology

 

[K1052]

Reportedly an Ukrainian R-360 strike on a Russian Shahed drone warehouse in Krasnodar.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1844092456221958147

 

[K1052]

A Panamanian flagged container ship in the port of Chornomorsk was reportedly struck by by a Russian ballistic missile. Unclear if the ship or the port was the target though this follows other attacks on shipping.

If the Ukrainians decide the deal is off then Russian shipping is going to be at substantial risk from USV attacks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1844113423128469515

 

[RnR_au]

Seems Russians are slowly turning on Putin's adventures in Ukraine;

(translated)

Almost half of Russians began to see more harm than good in the war in Ukraine

The share of Russians who believe that the invasion of Ukraine has done more harm than good has reached 47% by September, according to the results of a Levada Center poll. The number of those who believe that the war is progressing successfully has decreased by 10 percentage points (to 60 %) since February. According to the director of the social service, Denis Volkov, the data indicate the accumulation of fatigue in Russian society.

Details. The number of respondents who believe that the war has caused more harm increased by 6 percentage points from May 2023 to September 2024, from 41% to 47%. The number of those who believe that the war has brought more benefit decreased more sharply – by 10 percentage points, from 38% to 28%.

Source

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

A Panamanian flagged container ship in the port of Chornomorsk was reportedly struck by by a Russian ballistic missile. Unclear if the ship or the port was the target though this follows other attacks on shipping.

If the Ukrainians decide the deal is off then Russian shipping is going to be at substantial risk from USV attacks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1844113423128469515

We need to no-fly the black sea like yesterday, there's been too many international incidents there.

 

[you2]

Seems Russians are slowly turning on Putin's adventures in Ukraine;

(translated)


Source

War? But i thought it was a 3 day special military operation. And progressing with success 3 years after the end date ?

 

[RnR_au]

War? But i thought it was a 3 day special military operation. And progressing with success 3 years after the end date ?

It might be something about being shown to be the 2nd best army inside of Russia. The Russian military seems to be incapable of throwing Ukraine out of Kursk.

If anyone is interested in an summary article about negotiated peace between Ukraine and Russia;

A Peace Deal in Ukraine Is Not Going to Happen

The incessant calls for a negotiated settlement overlook a key point: It's impossible. Here's why.

www.readthedetox.com

 

[RnR_au]

Seems prudent prepping has started in the Baltics...

 

[kage69]

Putler can't even take back the People's Republic of Kursk, but yeah better safe than sorry I suppose.

You never know when the Russians might show up and choke your rivers with their dead.