Better late than never I guess…
The air-missile battle for Kyiv: why is Russia stepping up its strikes?
Russia inflicts massive strikes with cruise and ballistic missiles on the Kyiv region. Moreover, they allocate a significant part of their production of high-precision missiles and strike drones to this and use new attack tactics.
1. What is the enemy's goal? The enemy's main target is radars and anti-aircraft missile systems. Attacks on residential buildings or urban infrastructure are also an element of provoking air defense actions.
2. Why are they hitting Kyiv? Kyiv is being attacked because it is the capital, that is, a place that we are forced to defend with significant air defense forces due to the large number of population and infrastructural and defense facilities. If the attacks on Kyiv stop, then the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems may end up somewhere else, and for the Russians it is more profitable for our "Patriots" to shoot down the "Daggers" than to arrange a new "Bryansk awakening". Let me remind you that on May 13, unknown anti-aircraft fighters shot down a Su-34 bomber, a Su-35S fighter, and two Mi-8MTPR-1 electronic warfare helicopters in the sky over the Bryansk region, and all 11 crew members were also destroyed. Therefore, strikes on Kyiv are important for the enemy as a restraint on our anti-aircraft defense in order to concentrate our forces on the performance of defensive tasks.
2. How do Russian terrorists operate? The attacks are carried out in several waves, from different directions and heights, for several hours, which are repeated sometimes both during the day and at night.
At the same time, false targets are launched in the form of Kh-55 cruise missiles, which do not carry a warhead, but are supposed to trigger air defense radars and help determine their radiation. Dozens of Shahed drones are also launched along different trajectories. When the air defense system starts working, the enemy determines the coordinates of the targets and tries to hit the positions of the radar and air defense systems with cruise and ballistic missiles "Iskander-M", "Iskander-K", "Kinzhal", "Kalibr", Kh-101, as well as anti-radar missiles of various types, which are launched from ground launchers and aircraft, which take turns waiting for the coordinates of the targets. Obviously, the enemy is trying to achieve long-term operation of anti-aircraft radars and anti-aircraft missile systems, so that they cannot quickly change positions due to the need to repel a new wave of attacks.
3. Why at night? The time of the attack is primarily determined by the time when the enemy concentrates the maximum number of its reconnaissance means - that is, both electronic reconnaissance and space satellites. The long time of operation of radars from one point makes it possible to accurately determine the positions of electronic reconnaissance forces, to force the use of the available stock of anti-aircraft missiles, and to be able to be hit by various types of weapons, primarily anti-radar missiles that are directed at the source of radiation. Satellites make it possible to record missile launches. Intelligence data is also important for the enemy if he receives videos and photos of the location of air defense equipment quickly, optimally online, and can use them to adjust new shock waves.
4. How long will it take? Russia will carry out strikes on Kyiv and other important strategic cities for a long time, it is a terrorist country. But we still do not have enough air defense radars and anti-aircraft missile systems to make air defense dense and impenetrable, unfortunately, our state did nothing at all to strengthen and develop air defense forces before the war, and we depend on the pace of supply by our allies.
5. What to do? The main thing for us is not to bind our air defense with the task of dying in positions, but to conduct operations while maintaining the possibility of maneuver, to look for advantageous positions and quickly change them, avoiding retaliatory strikes. It is important to create all opportunities for high-quality operation of complex military equipment, for rest and combat effectiveness of calculations, for daily analysis of enemy actions and intelligent planning of further actions. We need to divert Russian missiles to the wrong targets, i.e. complex measures to camouflage and misinform the enemy (here we are severely lacking). The main problem in war is always not the equipment and not the soldiers, but primarily the command and administration. The very presence of an unsuppressed air defense system for the Russians is a constant threat, a "fleet in being", which distracts even much larger Russian forces. In modern warfare, there is no absolute security in the rear. And these rockets will still fly at someone - either at our defenders at the front, or at our cities. Someone somewhere will still not sleep, but someone somewhere will rest. Everyone has to suffer.
6. Conclusions? In general, the air-missile battle for Kyiv, where the best Russian high-precision weapons and the best radio-electronic and space intelligence oppose the best NATO-developed systems armed with Ukrainian air defense, is developing according to a favorable scenario for Ukraine. The vast majority of Russian missiles and drones are successfully shot down, while the enemy failed to destroy a single radar or anti-aircraft missile system in the Kyiv area in May. Yes, there was damage and near misses, but none of it was fatal. Unfortunately, the enemy destroys the city, but other cities suffer no less. From a political and information point of view, a barbarian that Russia's terrorist attacks on the European capital are a clear demonstration of what Putin will do to other European capitals if he does not do everything possible to defeat him in Ukraine.
The idea of whether or not this was a false flag operation can be sussed out by Putin's response, which was to downplay it. If it were false flag, the Russian response would have been to highlight it and bleat to high heaven.Some interesting takes on the recent drone attacks in Moscow. He doesn't think it was a Russian false flag operation.
Drone strike on Moscow: Taking the war into Russia
I hope this will have dire consequences for their defence industry.
A New York Times analysis of shipping data, satellite imagery and social media footage tracked how several tankers, most owned by shell companies established after Russia invaded Ukraine, secretly moved at least half a billion dollars’ worth of Russian oil — an apparent effort to deceive their U.S.-based insurer. The tankers use cutting-edge spoofing technology to make it appear they’re in one location when they’re really somewhere else. During at least 13 voyages, three tankers pretended to be sailing west of Japan. In reality, they were at terminals in Russia and shipping oil to China.
Natives are restless in kursk and belgorod?
Wouldn't want to give a sovereign country the idea they can effectively defend themselves through force of arms against an aggressor bent on obtaining their territory now would we?