Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Roger Wilco]

Per Zelensky's office Ukraine has agreed to a 30 day ceasefire proposal, pending Russian acceptance, and US intelligence and military aid to resume immediately.

https://www.president.gov.ua/news/spilna-zayava-za-pidsumkami-zustrichi-delegacij-ukrayini-ta-96553

Ball is in the Russian's court now. So far they have signaled little interest in any ceasefire.

If Russia rejects this, do we still send aid and intel?

 

[kage69]

If Russia rejects this, do we still send aid and intel?

We have already spun the sharing back up it seems. This was the result of Zelenskyy agreeing to the basic terms of the ceasefire. So, cool. I just hope AFU stays on their toes, maintains some healthy suspicion when it comes to anything from this admin.

Let's hope Ukraine can count on this support long term now. Fingers crossed it's not rescinded in a couple of days following another round of executive tantrum theater.

 

[K1052]

If Russia rejects this, do we still send aid and intel?

I would presume so. Up to Trump to press the Russians into doing something they don't want to do now.

 

[Jaskalas]

As if we had any doubt.

Russian State Duma Deputy Sobolev:

“The US will rearm Ukraine in 30 days of ceasefire and start the war anew, Russia will not go for it."​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899536910059454874

 

[Zor Prime]

As if we had any doubt.

Russian State Duma Deputy Sobolev:

“The US will rearm Ukraine in 30 days of ceasefire and start the war anew, Russia will not go for it."​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1899536910059454874

They might be convinced otherwise should the USA suggest that if Russia doesn't go for it Ukraine may as well become Israel #2 in terms of support. I guess we shall see.

 

[RnR_au]

Ukraine has retreated from Kursk apparently.

 

[RnR_au]

More drone news...

 

[zinfamous]

I would presume so. Up to Trump to press the Russians into doing something they don't want to do now.

hahahahahhahaha

 

[kage69]

Ukraine has retreated from Kursk apparently.

Understandable given the situation. Shouldn't stay if you can't get supplies. On the plus side, Toretsk and Pokrovsk are in Ukrainian hands and they've taken back some ground around Chasiv Yar.

Russians have burned through most of their working tanks at this point, and still can't move anywhere without drones swarming them and their donkeys like black flies.

Speaking of, that new domestic loitering drone they have, Seth, is a real hit. Put it up and it circles the battlefield, scanning for targets autonomously. When it sees a Russian target fitting the correct parameters, it dives on the attack, delivering 10lbs of gtfo orc.

 

[you2]

Is a ceasefire a mistake for Ukraine ?

 

[K1052]

Is a ceasefire a mistake for Ukraine ?

Job one was getting the intel and military aid turned back on. If agreeing to something the Russians are unlikely to then it is the right move to make the offer. I expect Putin comes back with a list of non-starter demands and things ping pong back and forth for a while with no real movement.

 

[Brainonska511]

Job one was getting the intel and military aid turned back on. If agreeing to something the Russians are unlikely to then it is the right move to make the offer. I expect Putin comes back with a list of non-starter demands and things ping pong back and forth for a while with no real movement.

Yep. Zelensky's job at this point is to pander to the big, irrational baby Trump and team to keep the spigot turned on.

 

[Brovane]

America's Betrayal: The Real Story Behind Ukraine's Crisis

Interesting video, brings up some Uncomfortable truths by Ryan McBeth.

What we see in Ukraine today is the result of 3 things.

• Botched Pullout from Afghanistan
• Previous Administration didn't make a strong case for Ukraine Support
• Previous Administration slow-walked arms to Ukraine

Since 2016 the US has told Europe to get it's Defensive act together.
Since 2014 the US told Europe to stop buying Russian gas, they bought more.

After the invasion in 2022 some European nations still didn't act decisively to increase defense spending.

China is the real threat and the US wants to pivot to China. Ukraine has been caught in the middle.
Collapsing Russia and a Rising China equals a disaster.

Force Ukraine into a peace deal and let Russia soft land, nuclear weapons are safe and the US can pivot to China.

The problem is that we in the US have let multiple partners out to dry, Kurds, Afghans and now Ukraine and maybe Europe.

Can Japan, Australia, Philippines, Korea trust the US? Answer would be No

Alliances only work if we are consistent.

Why would anyone buy weapons system from the US in the future?

 

[kage69]

Is a ceasefire a mistake for Ukraine ?

Given how weak the Russians actually are, and that they have no intention of letting go of occupied land, maybe?

The Russian army needs one more than Putin does, I can tell you that. AFU kills >1,000 of them every damn day, it's been drone hell for them nearly 24/7 for years.

Harder to gauge if it makes sense strategically for Ukraine, though tactically yeah probably. A ceasefire will prolong the war though, as both sides would use it to dig in even more, deploy an additional metric fuckton of mines, everywhere. AFU has been pulling exhaustive double duty for 3 years, even a week of a lower tempo would do them all good. I'm sure a lot of Russians would enjoy having water again, not dying by drone for awhile. Does Putin care? Probably not.

I'm curious to know how that ceasefire would work for surrounded batches of orcs, also drone rules. How do you enforce no recon of your rear areas?

 

[silverspaceship]

Is a ceasefire a mistake for Ukraine ?

No, it's actually not a bad move for several reasons:

1. Only a 30-day ceasefire was discussed, which is nothing compared to how long the war has already been going on;
2. There is no guarantee that Russia will agree to it (and even if it does, it will be useful to know why for future reference);
3. In any case, we got back the aid and intelligence.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Guys, you're doing it again. Wait for Trump to get his new marching orders from Putin and for the Rug pull.

Until Ukraine either kicks Russia out or becomes a permanent part of NATO/NATO-Next it's all just words and gestures.

 

[fskimospy]

No, it's actually not a bad move for several reasons:

1. Only a 30-day ceasefire was discussed, which is nothing compared to how long the war has already been going on;
2. There is no guarantee that Russia will agree to it (and even if it does, it will be useful to know why for future reference);
3. In any case, we got back the aid and intelligence.

I also think Ukraine is smart enough to realize that Russia has no intention in abiding by any ceasefire or peace agreement unless Ukraine gets major security guarantees.

I of course have no idea what the military situation prefers at the moment but as long as this agreement is gone into eyes open where you know Russia's next attack is a matter of when, not if, then you have to trust Ukrainian leadership to make the best choice for them.

 

[IronWing]

I also think Ukraine is smart enough to realize that Russia has no intention in abiding by any ceasefire or peace agreement unless Ukraine gets major security guarantees.

I of course have no idea what the military situation prefers at the moment but as long as this agreement is gone into eyes open where you know Russia's next attack is a matter of when, not if, then you have to trust Ukrainian leadership to make the best choice for them.

Ukraine can only obtain security guarantees from its own arms and maybe a few reliable European neighbors. U.S. guarantees are worth as much as Russian guarantees.

 

[fskimospy]

Ukraine can only obtain security guarantees from its own arms and maybe a few reliable European neighbors. U.S. guarantees are worth as much as Russian guarantees.

I agree, the US can no longer be trusted in this situation or really any other.

 

[silverspaceship]

I also think Ukraine is smart enough to realize that Russia has no intention in abiding by any ceasefire or peace agreement unless Ukraine gets major security guarantees.

I of course have no idea what the military situation prefers at the moment but as long as this agreement is gone into eyes open where you know Russia's next attack is a matter of when, not if, then you have to trust Ukrainian leadership to make the best choice for them.

Oh yes, we know this very well. We've already had ceasefire attempts in Minsk back in 2014. And we all know how russia adhered to them (not at all).

Even if we imagine that russia agrees to a ceasefire, we aren't expecting a complete cessation of hostilities. It's obvious that the russians will constantly violate it and try to provoke us. But if this attempt at a ceasefire can stop or slow down the pace of their offensive, that would be very beneficial.

 

[kage69]

The Economist commissioned a poll of Ukrainians by Ipsos, seems Zelenskyy's approval is about 72% now.

Meanwhile Trump is a joke around the globe and approval at home is plummeting among anyone not in his cult.

 

[RnR_au]

Some charts from The Economist mag mentioned above;





Seems Zelenskyy holds a few cards....

 

[fskimospy]

Oh yes, we know this very well. We've already had ceasefire attempts in Minsk back in 2014. And we all know how russia adhered to them (not at all).

Even if we imagine that russia agrees to a ceasefire, we aren't expecting a complete cessation of hostilities. It's obvious that the russians will constantly violate it and try to provoke us. But if this attempt at a ceasefire can stop or slow down the pace of their offensive, that would be very beneficial.

Yes I agree. The only way to stop Russia from invading its neighbors is the idea that they will fail.

The United States is very far from innocent here but at least the Western world has broadly brought prosperity.

As @Young Grasshopper knows the goal of Russia here is the fear of prosperity. They would rather Ukraine live in Russian poverty than western prosperity.

 

[trenchfoot]

Trump attempting to help Putin get the most of what he can get out of the hamburger grinding party he started in Ukraine by saying things like "I want peace for Ukraine" is laughable. And Trump faking his "neutrality" in the war by "getting tough" on Putin is even funnier still.

 

[RnR_au]

Trump attempting to help Putin get the most of what he can get out of the hamburger grinding party he started in Ukraine by saying things like "I want peace for Ukraine" is laughable. And Trump faking his "neutrality" in the war by "getting tough" on Putin is even funnier still.

idk... I think Trump is getting antsy for a win for his domestic audience. From his gunho language with Zelenskyy only a short while ago, to a 30 day empty ceasefire which doesn't solve anything for either Russia or Ukraine. It smells of desperation by Trump who needs to have a something he can sign infront of audiences.

He did make that promise of peace on day 1, the financial markets are in turmoil and the trade wars are winding up. He needs a win soon.

But I don't think Putin will help him. Putin has just done a victory lap in Kursk dressed in battle fatigues a mere day after Zelenskyy agreed to the 30 day ceasefire. He is not ready for peace. He thinks Ukraine is on the ropes and he wants all of the Donbas at least.