Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Jaskalas]

In the "no duh" and FAFO department....
Seems Germany is finally telling their MPs the consequences on them if Russia wins the war.
European nations all have a huge stake in the outcome as Russia's genocide marches towards them.
Refugees are just the beginning of the problems they will face.

German MPs have been briefed... that if Ukraine crumbles within the next 6 months, millions of Ukrainians will head West

The official estimate: 10 million, 2 of them to Germany. Unofficial: up to 18 million, 3-4 million to Germany​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856960343018176830

 

[Brainonska511]

In the "no duh" and FAFO department....
Seems Germany is finally telling their MPs the consequences on them if Russia wins the war.
European nations all have a huge stake in the outcome as Russia's genocide marches towards them.
Refugees are just the beginning of the problems they will face.

German MPs have been briefed... that if Ukraine crumbles within the next 6 months, millions of Ukrainians will head West

The official estimate: 10 million, 2 of them to Germany. Unofficial: up to 18 million, 3-4 million to Germany​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856960343018176830

Seems like a good play: appeal to Western Europe's hatred of Eastern European migrants in order to ensure they continue to chip in to keep Ukraine afloat and free.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

In the "no duh" and FAFO department....
Seems Germany is finally telling their MPs the consequences on them if Russia wins the war.
European nations all have a huge stake in the outcome as Russia's genocide marches towards them.
Refugees are just the beginning of the problems they will face.

German MPs have been briefed... that if Ukraine crumbles within the next 6 months, millions of Ukrainians will head West

The official estimate: 10 million, 2 of them to Germany. Unofficial: up to 18 million, 3-4 million to Germany​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1856960343018176830

Lol, apparently death by Russian arms wasn't the right scare tactic; immigrants, that's the ticket.

 

[RnR_au]

Lol, apparently death by Russian arms wasn't the right scare tactic; immigrants, that's the ticket.

But its not like the Ukrainians are brown folk....

/s <sigh>

 

[jdubs03]

Maybe they’ll finally muster the courage to send them Taurus missiles. Like they should’ve done more than a year ago.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Ruble getting a little uncomfortable again.

 

[K1052]

Maybe they’ll finally muster the courage to send them Taurus missiles. Like they should’ve done more than a year ago.

One of the guys angling for the chancellorship when Scholz gets booted says they should demand Russia cease the war or they will provide Ukraine with Taurus and let them target whatever they want inside Russia.

If Putin was smart he'd be looking to make a deal now. He's probably not thinking he can take the whole thing when Trump gets into office. This doesn't account for the likely Ukrainian responses if they get really pressed like obliterating Russian oil and LNG export capacity with drone attacks. They have stayed away from the energy export stuff and Russian shipping but look TF out if they change their minds.

 

[JTsyo]

One of the guys angling for the chancellorship when Scholz gets booted says they should demand Russia cease the war or they will provide Ukraine with Taurus and let them target whatever they want inside Russia.

If Putin was smart he'd be looking to make a deal now. He's probably not thinking he can take the whole thing when Trump gets into office. This doesn't account for the likely Ukrainian responses if they get really pressed like obliterating Russian oil and LNG export capacity with drone attacks. They have stayed away from the energy export stuff and Russian shipping but look TF out if they change their minds.

Putin won't want to make a deal while Ukraine holds parts of Kursk. After Russian pushes them out, he might like his hand better. Though I don't think he'll settle for anything less than holding everything they currently have and that won't fly for Ukraine.

 

[K1052]

Putin won't want to make a deal while Ukraine holds parts of Kursk. After Russian pushes them out, he might like his hand better. Though I don't think he'll settle for anything less than holding everything they currently have and that won't fly for Ukraine.

Ukraine is, at a minimum, going to want the chunk of Zapo back where the nuclear plant is. What territorial concessions Ukraine is able and willing to make is a bit of an open question. Will probably depend on what the security arrangements are. They are definitely not going to consent to limitations on their military power.

 

[you2]

Just remember this is what Trump wants - an america where saying the wrong thing lands you jail:

More Russians denounce each other over Ukraine, in echo of Soviet era

On the last day of January, a woman took her son to see paediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova at Polyclinic No. 140 in northwest Moscow. The case hinged on a denunciation - part of a rising trend of Russians informing on fellow citizens for their views on the war in Ukraine and other alleged...

news.yahoo.com

 

[Pens1566]

Just remember this is what Trump wants - an america where saying the wrong thing lands you jail:

More Russians denounce each other over Ukraine, in echo of Soviet era

On the last day of January, a woman took her son to see paediatrician Nadezhda Buyanova at Polyclinic No. 140 in northwest Moscow. The case hinged on a denunciation - part of a rising trend of Russians informing on fellow citizens for their views on the war in Ukraine and other alleged...

news.yahoo.com

Give it a year or so before "window cancer" starts climbing the charts here.

 

[Jaskalas]

Eastern Bloc is aligned.
Most of mainland Asia, and several billion people.
They do not just endorse, they also materially supply the last colonial empire's attempt to take a people's land through Genocide.

Borrell informs EU countries of China's first weapon transfer to Russia – media​

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell has told EU members that intelligence shows China has supplied weapons to Russia for the first time to use against Ukraine​

 

[kage69]

I salute Poland and the Balts, who are only upping their support while being upfront about 'no decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine'

North Koreans in country fighting, China officially giving Russia lethal aid; pretty much zero chance the Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians aren't sending people to help now. Or more anyway.

Russians are up to about 2000 KIA/day now, they're doing infantry assaults without any air or armor support in some areas. Won't be long until Putin needs more meat, looks like vehicles are starting to dry up. Send more golf carts Xi.

Meanwhile AFU has plenty of ammo and has adopted 10 day rotations for front line people, so I've heard. I expect Ukraine will put together a collection of nuclear IEDs soon too. If Zelenskyy is going to sit at a table with Putin or his people, it's going to be at a level of parity, between two warring factions who each possess nuclear weapons and chunks of each other's territory.

 

[dank69]

Is Zelensky signaling they are going to surrender what Russia has managed to grab once Trump takes power? That's how it reads after his call with Trump. Did Trump lean on him with the offer of give it up now, or Trump will help Russia take it all?

 

[K1052]

Is Zelensky signaling they are going to surrender what Russia has managed to grab once Trump takes power? That's how it reads after his call with Trump. Did Trump lean on him with the offer of give it up now, or Trump will help Russia take it all?

Some amount of territorial concession has been likely unavoidable since the (larger) war started. What kind of security arrangement is extracted in exchange is really what's going to make a deal possible or not. Zelensky already said something like Minsk 3 is a non-starter.

 

[K1052]

Russians are up to about 2000 KIA/day now, they're doing infantry assaults without any air or armor support in some areas. Won't be long until Putin needs more meat, looks like vehicles are starting to dry up. Send more golf carts Xi.

Can confirm the amount of Russian corpses in the feeds I follow have grown to be pretty huge lately. It's just wholesale slaughter.

 

[dank69]

Some amount of territorial concession has been likely unavoidable since the (larger) war started. What kind of security arrangement is extracted in exchange is really what's going to make a deal possible or not. Zelensky already said something like Minsk 3 is a non-starter.

Any security guarantees will be less than worthless if we're being honest.

 

[K1052]

Any security guarantees will be less than worthless if we're being honest.

The only options Ukraine appears willing to settle for will be either NATO membership or the physical deployment of Euro military forces to Ukraine. The second is probably more doable than the first by a decent margin.

 

[dank69]

The only options Ukraine appears willing to settle for will be either NATO membership or the physical deployment of Euro military forces to Ukraine. The second is probably more doable than the first by a decent margin.

Sir, Vladimir Putin is about to have full control of the US government, and military industrial complex. Every day that the US does not pull out of NATO starting on January 20th will be solely because of Trump's mercy.

 

[K1052]

Sir, Vladimir Putin is about to have full control of the US government, and military industrial complex. Every day that the US does not pull out of NATO starting on January 20th will be solely because of Trump's mercy.

The Euros are still going to stick together so membership in the alliance would still have value to Ukraine.

 

[dank69]

The Euros are still going to stick together so membership in the alliance would still have value to Ukraine.

You funny friendo. All of the Euros vs US military. Now that I could see dragging out for a 3 day operation.

 

[Pens1566]

I feel pretty confident that the current euro forces would be enough on their own to deal with the junkyard leftovers of the russian military. Hell, I think Poland and the baltics alone would be sufficient.

 

[K1052]

You funny friendo. All of the Euros vs US military. Now that I could see dragging out for a 3 day operation.

The US is not going to war with Europe, some of whom have nuclear weapons.

Ukraine cannot afford a giant wartime standing military (neither can Russia really) to secure its entire physical border so when the war ends it will be scaled back into a smaller, better equipped, and more modern force. There will probably be a big focus on creating the necessary reserves of personnel, equipment, and munitions that can be called upon should the need arise again.

 

[K1052]

I feel pretty confident that the current euro forces would be enough on their own to deal with the junkyard leftovers of the russian military. Hell, I think Poland and the baltics alone would be sufficient.

The Russians keep saying they are fighting Europe but if that was actually the case they'd be getting pasted. This is why they do not attack Europe.

 

[Perknose]

Russian Priest Advised to Stay Away From Windows.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1857740978230042906