Russia massing troops on Iran's border

[cave_dweller]

If all fails 100MT Tsar bomb. We are back to the stone age

 

[freegeeks]

Very good explanation.

Against anything but a Wild Weasel, it will work.

The problem is that they can not shut the targeting radar down and get moving in 30 seconds. That is the time that it takes for a HARM missile to follow the beam. Targeting/fire control and search radars are not able to detect a missile - to small of a cross area.

By the time a targeting/fire control radar has picked up and identified the aircraft; there is a missile riding down the beam. Because the beam is a straight line, the missile has the coordinates locked in; turning off the radar will not have any difference.

If the radar is far enough away from the command vehicle and/or launch (no matter what the weapon version is); then the other two items may survive the HARM. But the unit is no longer operational without the fire control radar.

Survival would be based on having an AA support system to attempt to hit the incoming missile and/or having a second system that can shoot the Weasel. Sacrifice a missile system for an aircraft.

Long range search radars are also vulnerable under the same concept. Because they can reach out further, they can also be detected and pinpointed at longer ranges.

their S300 system has a much longer range then a HARM, there is no way that the attacking airplance can get close enough without being engaged

 

[davmat787]

Am I the only one remembering that Turkey is part of NATO here, and that Georgia borders the black sea? If Russia attempts military action through Georgia and America is involved, their supply lines will be shat on by the 6th fleet within days. I'm sure Georgia won't object to dead Russians on their territory.

After the KGB, I mean FSB, poisoned the very popular Medv (sp?) leading up to elections, I think you are correct. Not too mention that enclave of pro Russian separatists in north central Georgia. And then there was that conflict a few years ago where Russian boots and planes were in Georgian territory. From what I understand Georgia is very pro-Western.

 

[bigi]

Russia have neither reason nor ability to defend Iran from US attack.

Anyone who thinks that russian airforce is able to win against USAF + IAF is on some really good drugs.

USA can use F-22s to wipe out all enemy aircraft in their area of operations.

Really?

Even though we may regret it, I'd like to verify your claim.

 

[cave_dweller]

The question is why would Russia want to defend Iran. Are there anything pointing towards such a action?What would be the motivation be for such a move?

 

[irishScott]

Are you a defence expert or a russian tactical analyst with major credentials?

No, as I stated I'm an amateur. But I pay more attention than most and probably read more articles concerning the subject in my spare time.

For instance, I can point you to technical "experts" like this guy: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/5769

To be sure, the military ’s situation has improved in some respects in the past several years. At the same time, reversing the army ’s decline and regaining its former might will take many years, and the Russian armed forces will not be able to challenge America ’s military supremacy for decades. Indeed, my main argument here is that reports of the Russian army ’s imminent resurgence, like those of Mark Twain’s death nearly a century ago, have been greatly exaggerated.

 

[theeedude]

Russia wants a contained mess in Iran. It doesn't want either Israel or Iran to prevail, it wants long term instability and sanctions which will jack up oil prices and make Europe more dependent on Russia for energy.

 

[cave_dweller]

No, as I stated I'm an amateur. But I pay more attention than most and probably read more articles concerning the subject in my spare time.

For instance, I can point you to technical "experts" like this guy: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policy-review/article/5769

I am not arguing with you was just curious why you said so. But although he is a expert it does not make his opinion a fact especially written almost 4 years ago.

 

[irishScott]

The question is why would Russia want to defend Iran. Are there anything pointing towards such a action?What would be the motivation be for such a move?

Iran is very much in a Russian sphere of influence right now, and they also have no love for Israel or the US. I sincerely doubt they'd instigate an open conflict over them though. Would certainly not be in their favor and, if they attacked American forces, NATO could be called in against them. From the look of things I'd say this "threat" is typical Russian blustering that they've been doing for decades. It would simply not be in their self interest to defend Iran by direct military means.

 

[Lemon law]

Ok IrishScot, I read your link by Zoltam Barany. And I agree it simply points out, in a conventional war, Russia can't stand on equal footing with the USA or even Nato.

But the link in itself proves nothing, because the Russian military can quite legally tip the balance in Iran's favor, do disproportionate damage to the stronger military, and swoop back in and end up with the spoils in a conflict the stronger military started.

It was ever so true in Vietnam as the USA was the big loser, its was also true in Afghanistan in the 1980's when the Russian bear got its nose tweaked, and now we have something else. As without any real foreign help, military weak nations like Iraq and Afghanistan can be easily conquered, but the ability of the USA, the most powerful military on earth in the USA, can't maintain control of either country. As the USA now bleeds blood and treasure and has has less than zero to show for it.

 

[irishScott]

I am not arguing with you was just curious why you said so. But although he is a expert it does not make his opinion a fact especially written almost 4 years ago.

You think the Russian military can come that far in 4 years? Here's an analysis written last year, gives the Russians more credit than most but still mentions that it's unlikely Russia will equal the US in military capability for some time.

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/\papers45\paper4431.html

Don't get me wrong the Russian military is nothing to sneeze at, never has been. But as it stands they're seriously lacking in their capability to project significant force beyond their immediate borders (short of nukes anyway). They could help Iran in some ways and make it more costly, but in the face of combined Israel/US forces, if we attacked tomorrow they'd fail, miserably.

 

[cave_dweller]

Iran is very much in a Russian sphere of influence right now, and they also have no love for Israel or the US. I sincerely doubt they'd instigate an open conflict over them though. Would certainly not be in their favor and, if they attacked American forces, NATO could be called in against them. From the look of things I'd say this "threat" is typical Russian blustering that they've been doing for decades. It would simply not be in their self interest to defend Iran by direct military means.

The ancestors of today’s Russians adopted Orthodox Christianity in the 10th century. It is now the country’s primary religion. Orthodoxy is the form of Christianity that developed first in the Eastern Roman Empire (which spanned present-day Greece, Turkey, and the Middle East) and later in the Slavic lands of eastern Europe. Why would they try to protect a Islamic region who follows the laws of Sharia?

 

[crashtestdummy]

The ancestors of today’s Russians adopted Orthodox Christianity in the 10th century. It is now the country’s primary religion. Orthodoxy is the form of Christianity that developed first in the Eastern Roman Empire (which spanned present-day Greece, Turkey, and the Middle East) and later in the Slavic lands of eastern Europe. Why would they try to protect a Islamic region who follows the laws of Sharia?

It's not a matter of religion. Russia and China in general have a policy of protecting autocratic regimes from international intervention (in fear that the same policy might be turned on them). They're actually trying to play it two ways here: the first is that they don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons. Iran with nukes would destabilize the region and weaken Russia's influence (and potentially their arms contracts). On the other hand, they don't want to see Iran attacked for much the same reasons plus those above.

 

[cave_dweller]

You think the Russian military can come that far in 4 years? Here's an analysis written last year, gives the Russians more credit than most but still mentions that it's unlikely Russia will equal the US in military capability for some time.

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/\papers45\paper4431.html

Don't get me wrong the Russian military is nothing to sneeze at, never has been. But as it stands they're seriously lacking in their capability to project significant force beyond their immediate borders (short of nukes anyway). They could help Iran in some ways and make it more costly, but in the face of combined Israel/US forces, if we attacked tomorrow they'd fail, miserably.

Lets not bring nukes into the discussing as that option would be only be available for the insane and desperate. They have nukes just to tell the other guy who has them that they can use them if they use theirs. And In 2002 the US and Russia agreed to a new arms-reduction treaty requiring both to reduce their nuclear-weapons arsenals by two-thirds over a period of ten years.

But I do believe you have a point that Russia’s conventional forces are generally unprepared for combat. The disastrous performance of the army during the 1995 and 1996 campaign in Chechnya revealed deficiencies in command, logistics, training, and morale. But their technology and arms development do not have that problem and still set high standards. But like you stated the problem is the ones using them might lack combat experience.

 

[cave_dweller]

It's not a matter of religion. Russia and China in general have a policy of protecting autocratic regimes from international intervention (in fear that the same policy might be turned on them). They're actually trying to play it two ways here: the first is that they don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons. Iran with nukes would destabilize the region and weaken Russia's influence (and potentially their arms contracts). On the other hand, they don't want to see Iran attacked for much the same reasons plus those above.

What is Islam? I ask this because you said this.

It's not a matter of religion.

 

[momeNt]

This world war should spell great prosperity for the American people. All oil producing nations will not dare challenge the USA again, which means no more embargos and no more saber rattling causing the oil speculators to get skittish on supply prospects.

I don't mind seeing approximately 400,000 Iranian and Russian dead and probably 75,000-100,000 American dead if it means that the rest of the world continues investing in America and the dollar and helps us avoid QE'ing our way to prosperity. 2008-2012 has shown that QE doesn't work, only outside investment works because it helps strengthen our currency and allows us to spend on social services more freely and without tea party and paulbot angst. Lesson from Obama's first term, next time drop the monetary debasement of QE and go straight to world war.

 

[davmat787]

The question is why would Russia want to defend Iran. Are there anything pointing towards such a action?What would be the motivation be for such a move?

If Russia were to actually defend Iran, rather than using this for other means like Georgia, I would assume it has to do with the fact that Iran buys a lot of Russian arms and nuclear materials. Just a guess, but why wouldn't money be involved?

 

[EagleKeeper]

their S300 system has a much longer range then a HARM, there is no way that the attacking airplance can get close enough without being engaged

Correct. I was thinking of the 88E, but it has not been fielded.

The existing 88 has a range of about 100km.

 

[xj0hnx]

bwhahahahah yea ok. Russian pilots are very capable and skilled at their craft. do not for an instant think Russias Air Force is a piece of shit like Iraq or Irans.

Except our pilots and planes have been flying real life operations, and combat missions for the last eleven years, not sitting around "training".

 

[Jhhnn]

Except our pilots and planes have been flying real life operations, and combat missions for the last eleven years, not sitting around "training".

Against third rate opposition in Iraq, or no opposition at all, as in Afghanistan. It was more like training than matched combat.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Except our pilots and planes have been flying real life operations, and combat missions for the last eleven years, not sitting around "training".

Against third rate opposition in Iraq, or no opposition at all, as in Afghanistan. It was more like training than matched combat.

With the exception of the intensive training that SOME of our pilots go through at Fallon and Nellis; neither side has been in a true air-air combat since Vietnam. I do not know what type of training packages the Russians have that is similar

So it will be the quality of training and the air support systems (AWACS & ground maintenance) that would make a difference.

My feelings:
Russia is attempting to make a statement to Iran that if the US comes after them first; Russia will back them up. And getting Iran to purchase systems/support.

Should Iran launch at the US forces first, Russia will not do anything.
Russia does not think the US will try anything on the ground; Air or sea is not to Russia's strength.

 

[JTsyo]

Hmm this was kind of the plotline for BF3, in trying to explain how the US and Russia goes to war.

Had Russia had a direct border with Iran, their threat would have more teeth. As it is, I doubt they could get enough forces to make much of a difference. DO the Russians maintain much of a presence in the Caspian sea? They would allow for direct access to Iran.
Also Iran can't be too comfortable with Russian troops on their soil. Neither Israel nor the US will want to occupy Iran, it will be a strike and exit. Where they are right now is about as useful as Russia will be Iran, a possible threat for those that would consider attacking.

 

[cave_dweller]

If Russia were to actually defend Iran, rather than using this for other means like Georgia, I would assume it has to do with the fact that Iran buys a lot of Russian arms and nuclear materials. Just a guess, but why wouldn't money be involved?

Fair point but Iran do not buy uranium from the Russian consortium but dig it up and enrich it themselves . They are currently at 20 percent. They were at 5 percent some time ago. The higher they go up means the closer to weapon grade uranium status. Russia sell weapons to anyone. They would even sell it to the enemy of their mothers. But the most of the weapons go to Syria via Iran. But the russians have been lately very cautious selling their newest tech to Iran and China because they started to reverse engineer it. I can tell you the reactors Iran are using are crap. Israeli's struggled for ages to get those going and that was the problem with the centrifuges actually not Stuxnet as everyone want to believe. Iraq was sorted out in the 80's they had a CANDU reactor. One of Canada's finest creations since the mounty:biggrin:

 

[Atreus21]

USA is better than Russia.

I figured I'd boil down my response to the underlying theme of where this thread is heading.

 

[freegeeks]

Correct. I was thinking of the 88E, but it has not been fielded.

The existing 88 has a range of about 100km.

there was a NATO exercise some years ago and the Slowaks brought an S300 system with them. All participants agreed that it is a very capable system. Especially the more recent versions are very potent because of their very longe range.