[Rumor, Tweaktown] AMD to launch next-gen Navi graphics cards at E3

[railven]

The only thing odd is your attatchement to concepts you have about other people.

Attachments? We rarely interact. The only "attachments" I have to you in the GPU sub division are your posts. Either way, I'm not even disagreeing with your new stance.

 

[Glo.]

Attachments? We rarely interact. The only "attachments" I have to you in the GPU sub division are your posts. Either way, I'm not even disagreeing with your new stance.

If you are not attatched, then why you claimed that I have been defending Polaris's second and third respin, when I was not even posting on the forum when they were respun?

 

[railven]

If you are not attatched, then why you claimed that I have been defending Polaris's second and third respin, when I was not even posting on the forum when they were respun?

Trying to respond without looking like a creep, haha So I'll just state, when I was heavily pro-AMD you and a few other posters I favored a lot. As my red shades came off, these posts now seemed to drip with rather...unsavory tastes. Now to see it spin this way, it's odd. You can see me calling out another poster for something similar. I'm not saying I disagree with you (or that other poster) more so the severe change in stance. It's odd.

If you wish for me to go through threads to prove my position, let me know, I'd rather not (I'm lazy), but I have no qualms with putting the effort (I can test my memory for accuracy while I'm at it ).

 

[railven]

If you are not attatched, then why you claimed that I have been defending Polaris's second and third respin, when I was not even posting on the forum when they were respun?

Well that didn't take long, you're in the RX 590 speculation thread. Even speculating possible GTX 1070 performance. (I just tossed RX 590 in search and looked at hits with your avatar).

https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/new-amd-polaris-based-gpu.2555020/page-8

 

[Glo.]

Well that didn't take long, you're in the RX 590 speculation thread. Even speculating possible GTX 1070 performance. (I just tossed RX 590 in search and looked at hits with your avatar).

https://forums.anandtech.com/threads/new-amd-polaris-based-gpu.2555020/page-8

Oh I forgot about it.

And hey, pretty much spot on with discussion. IF the RX 590 would have faster memory, it would get to GTX 1070 performance, by the current look of things.

 

[Dribble]

To be fair, and I'm totally guessing, I'd imagine that a 225-250mm2 die on the 1+ year old 7nm manufacturing process yields as good, if not better than, 450-750 mm2 dies on 12nm FF+. The die sizes Nvidia are using right now for RTX are huge, which is probably part of the reason why TU102 and TU104 are cut down for their respective RTX parts.

A lot of the costs are fixed, not per part sold. The r&d, the dies, and so on cost a lot. If you are going to sell a significantly smaller number of cards then Nvidia (likely) then those costs are a greater % of the total. Particularly as not only do Nvidia sells a lot more cards, but they do so with significantly higher margins (the pro/hpc chips in particular).

AMD have to make money, they can't have loss leading gpu's for ever, and they have greater fixed cost/card then Nvidia. I am sure they need to price these as high as they can get away with.

 

[psyducktustin]

Well there goes my upgrade plan. What do I buy now that the cards coming out arent in my chosen budget tier? 1660? rx590?

 

[maddie]

A lot of the costs are fixed, not per part sold. The r&d, the dies, and so on cost a lot. If you are going to sell a significantly smaller number of cards then Nvidia (likely) then those costs are a greater % of the total. Particularly as not only do Nvidia sells a lot more cards, but they do so with significantly higher margins (the pro/hpc chips in particular).

AMD have to make money, they can't have loss leading gpu's for ever, and they have greater fixed cost/card then Nvidia. I am sure they need to price these as high as they can get away with.

A lot of the fixed costs are spread over the consoles. Don't assume PC sales only, that's for Nvidia, not AMD. For all we know, they might have amortized the development of Navi solely or mainly on the console sales and can have a lot of leeway for pricing the PC version. We sometimes assume that each 7nm variation is the full development cost but this is a fallacy. A ROP, cache, CU, etc once designed, has a much lower cost to repurpose into a different die.

Talking about margins without knowing how AMD handles their various business accounts is pure guesswork. The GPU design elements in Navi will have a much bigger production run than Vega ever had or will, and the production costs will be an order lower.

I still expect very good prices on desktop Navi relative to Nvidia. 1/3 discount or 2/3 price of a similarly performing Nvidia part?

 

[Glo.]

Well there goes my upgrade plan. What do I buy now that the cards coming out arent in my chosen budget tier? 1660? rx590?

Nobody has a bloody clue about what Navi GPUs will be priced at, and perform like.

Cannot we all wait 4 days more, before we will jump to conclusions?

 

[RaV666]

Well there goes my upgrade plan. What do I buy now that the cards coming out arent in my chosen budget tier? 1660? rx590?

I would be on the lookout for great vega 56 deals...They are inevitable if navis are gonna replace them price wise.
I mean i dont know where you live, but in europe you can have vega 56 for like ~250$ (converted from euro minus vat tax) if you look good enough.

 

[AtenRa]

I still don't see them beating their previous generation flagship (Vega64) in performance with a ~250mm2 chip, especially when the there will be more of the TDP dedicated to GDDR memory vs. HBM. Great if they do, though. That would be awesome to see RTX 2070 performance for $400 given the market's sustained price inflation.

Technically a 250mm2 die at 7nm will be close to 10B transistors, almost same as 10.8B transistor TU106 on the RTX2070 (445mm2 on 12nm).

Now, they managed to increase Vega 20 performance to 30% higher over Vega 10 by keeping the same amount of transistors. So it is possible to have the same performance as VEGA 10 (VEGA 64) with a 250mm2 at 7nm even if they will not use HBM2 but GDDR6. The problem will be the power consumption, because like before they will use smaller dies to compete at higher performance segments instead of producing two different dies for each segment.

So i will not be socked if NAVI 10 will be 210-230mm2 and they will try to compete against the TU106 by increasing frequencies way to high in expense of higher power consumption.

 

[DrMrLordX]

There is no Navi 12. Only two GPUs that are apparent in drivers and DeviceIDs are Navi 10 and Navi 14.

Weird. Maybe Navi14 will sit in the $250 slot then? If it can beat 2060 then not all is lost, but again, such a product makes Navi10 look bad (if it is indeed only as fast as the 2070).

Well there goes my upgrade plan. What do I buy now that the cards coming out arent in my chosen budget tier? 1660? rx590?

Going by your screenname, I'm going to guess that you'll get a headache. After that passes, maybe you should look at deals on Vega56 in a few days. It has a lot of tuning options. There are a few sub-$300 Vega56s out there right now, including:

https://pcpartpicker.com/product/XR...ga-56-8gb-video-card-gv-rxvega56gaming-oc-8gd

Not sure how desirable that particular card is though. Whether that's a better buy than a 1660Ti is up to you. We still don't know much about Navi14 either (see above).

 

[Glo.]

Weird. Maybe Navi14 will sit in the $250 slot then? If it can beat 2060 then not all is lost, but again, such a product makes Navi10 look bad (if it is indeed only as fast as the 2070).

Navi 14 is 20 CU chip, which means it is exactly half of Navi 10. Performance? CompuBench leaks suggest the GPU is 10-15% faster than RX 590. Should be around GTX 1660.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Navi 14 is 20 CU chip, which means it is exactly half of Navi 10. Performance? CompuBench leaks suggest the GPU is 10-15% faster than RX 590. Should be around GTX 1660.

So if AMD has a 2070-equivalent for $399 and a 1660-equivalent for . . . let's say, RX590 prices (which right now look like $210 street), then they've completely whiffed on offering a product just above the 2060. Also EVGA OC 1660 is only $200 ($214 normally, there's a promo going on for this card). Unless they put Navi14 below RX 590 prices, why is anyone going to buy that thing?

At the very least, they could have attacked the 2060 which is a weak point in NV's price/performance portfolio. It would have forced them to lower prices or react with Ampere later on (giving AMD at least a few months to sell cards). NV doesn't have to change anything to win against Navi14. Navi10 may be $50 cheaper than a 2070 and that's it. NV would need to do very little to react with temporary price cuts until they can counter with new product.

AMD looks to be missing a huge soft spot. It's a bit silly.

 

[Glo.]

So if AMD has a 2070-equivalent for $399 and a 1660-equivalent for . . . let's say, RX590 prices (which right now look like $210 street), then they've completely whiffed on offering a product just above the 2060. Also EVGA OC 1660 is only $200 ($214 normally, there's a promo going on for this card). Unless they put Navi14 below RX 590 prices, why is anyone going to buy that thing?

At the very least, they could have attacked the 2060 which is a weak point in NV's price/performance portfolio. It would have forced them to lower prices or react with Ampere later on (giving AMD at least a few months to sell cards). NV doesn't have to change anything to win against Navi14. Navi10 may be $50 cheaper than a 2070 and that's it. NV would need to do very little to react with temporary price cuts until they can counter with new product.

AMD looks to be missing a huge soft spot. It's a bit silly.

We do not know anything about Navi. There is maybe ONE believable-ish leak, about Navi. Lets wait those 4 days more.

 

[DrMrLordX]

We do not know anything about Navi. There is maybe ONE believable-ish leak, about Navi. Lets wait those 4 days more.

Maybe Navi will be completely different from any of this speculation. I am more than prepared to be disappointed by the pricing and market positioning of their new product, sadly.

 

[Stuka87]

We do not know anything about Navi. There is maybe ONE believable-ish leak, about Navi. Lets wait those 4 days more.

What happens in four (Three now?) days?

 

[Glo.]

What happens in four (Three now?) days?

AMD's Computex Keynote is on 27th May.

 

[Mopetar]

Maybe Navi will be completely different from any of this speculation. I am more than prepared to be disappointed by the pricing and market positioning of their new product, sadly.

I'm of a similar mind. If they had a real winner on their hands they'd probably be hyping it a lot more.

Or perhaps they've just learned that what little buzz they did try to generate with Polaris and Vega only came around to bite them on the rear so they're just going to be completely quiet leading up to launch so that even if it isn't phenomenal, people tend to be at least pleasantly surprised with an okay product.

 

[Stuka87]

I'm of a similar mind. If they had a real winner on their hands they'd probably be hyping it a lot more.

Or perhaps they've just learned that what little buzz they did try to generate with Polaris and Vega only came around to bite them on the rear so they're just going to be completely quiet leading up to launch so that even if it isn't phenomenal, people tend to be at least pleasantly surprised with an okay product.

The stuff they talked about in the 6 months before the launch or Polaris all came out to match almost exactly what was shipped. The issue was sites/people totally hyping up expectations WAY beyond what AMD said. Now it can certainly be argued that if they said nothing, that may not have happened. But there are always those that try and swing expectations one way or another.

 

[tajoh111]

Weird. Maybe Navi14 will sit in the $250 slot then? If it can beat 2060 then not all is lost, but again, such a product makes Navi10 look bad (if it is indeed only as fast as the 2070).



Going by your screenname, I'm going to guess that you'll get a headache. After that passes, maybe you should look at deals on Vega56 in a few days. It has a lot of tuning options. There are a few sub-$300 Vega56s out there right now, including:

https://pcpartpicker.com/product/XR...ga-56-8gb-video-card-gv-rxvega56gaming-oc-8gd

Not sure how desirable that particular card is though. Whether that's a better buy than a 1660Ti is up to you. We still don't know much about Navi14 either (see above).

That particular model is horrific. Most of the reviews are 1 or 2 stars on newegg. It dies quickly often upon arrival. A reference is preferred over that model. Amazon shows just slightly better with again most of the reviews 1 stars.

That card is to be avoided and the reputation is why that model is on sale. A vega 56 should get the nod over the gtx 1660 ti at the same price but not that model.

One of the reason why vega kind of crashed hard and came out with initially a negative response was the speed and performance inprovement provided by pascal was downplayed.

Adored initially thought before the correction it wasnt a question of if vega was going to be faster than thr gtx 1080 or ti, i cant remember off hand but a matter of how much faster since the former question was an absolute yes initially.

He bought into the initial poor volta and said vega was meant to compete with what comes after pascal. This was atleast initially.

This hype was also assisted with Raja reputation and piggybacking off of ryzens hype created the vega hype train. What prevented it from stopping even though the signs were everywhere the hype was not going to be met(adored noticed this) was the strong AMD fanbase and dedication.

The thing is the fans Amd have left are under their own will, acting as fantastic amd marketers. When amd does not have a card on the market, they will hype of and do everything to stall people to wait for an amd card. This includes posting any positive amd performance rumor, trying to shut down any argument against the hype. Steve from techspot has experienced this first hand. He now has to mention that AMD cards come with free games(he admits fans hounded him about it) and fans hounded him to rereview Vega vii vs the rtx 2080 because an pro amd reviewers showed radeon vii was faster than a radeon vii. Adored also mention he gets pelted with negative comments and PM when he says something slightly positive about nvidia and not nearly as much when he says something anti nvidia and pro amd. The fans are much more hardcore.

Its mostly these fans that the hype gets out of control on these boards but they are happy to take the hit to their reputation for Amd.

 

[DrMrLordX]

That particular model is horrific. Most of the reviews are 1 or 2 stars on newegg. It dies quickly often upon arrival. A reference is preferred over that model. Amazon shows just slightly better with again most of the reviews 1 stars.

That card is to be avoided and the reputation is why that model is on sale. A vega 56 should get the nod over the gtx 1660 ti at the same price but not that model.

Good info there. I thought it was cheap for a reason.

Cheapest other Vega56 is a Sapphire PULSE for $300. You can get an EVGA 1660Ti for less.

Its mostly these fans that the hype gets out of control on these boards but they are happy to take the hit to their reputation for Amd.

I think people just want to see the dGPU market go back to what the CPU market is today, with depreciating assets losing value on a semi-regular basis so that you don't have a 1080Ti holding its value for three years. The only way for that to happen is for AMD to get a portfolio of faster products and to price them at least slightly below NV's existing cards, to help create downward price movement to counter the insane upward price movement.

It's not an unreasonable expectation. All these dGPUs we buy should be lowering in value over time, sometimes dramatically. Once they are two years or more past their launch date, they should sell for next to nothing unless they were super high-end products at launch or unless there's some artificial "used scarcity" involved which is what you often see with old motherboards and RAM. If Navi can't lower the prices on existing dGPU stockpiles, then what good is it to anyone?

 

[beginner99]

If Nvidia can price RTX 2070 at 499$ why AMD cannot equally performing GPU, or faster one at the same price?

They can if they want to stay at 18% marketshare.

I suspect the pricing is simply a supply issue were supply is going to zen2 chiplets.

 

[Head1985]

They can if they want to stay at 18% marketshare.

It was 18% in february before 1660/1660TI launch..
I would add to that:
1-1year late.It is normal release product 1 year later than competition fo same money?Again i call that price fixing.But they already did it with vega so i am not sure what AMD thinking.
2-no DLSS/RT support
3-probably more power hungry(not sure)
4-if they relase 2070 performance for 2070 price then people whos waiting for navi will go out and buy 2070 because RT/DLSS or will not upgrade at all(because its overpriced like 2070)

 

[DrMrLordX]

1-1year late.It is normal release product 1 year later than competition fo same money?Again i call that price fixing.But they already did it with vega so i am not sure what AMD thinking.

Actually, Navi is early. Maybe a year ago, I remember seeing a lot of reports that Navi might not come out in dGPU form until Q4 2019. July is early.

2-no DLSS/RT support

. . . not really a big problem.

3-probably more power hungry(not sure)

More power-hungry than what? A 2070? Maybe. 2070s don't use that much power, so I don't see it as being a big problem.

4-if they relase 2070 performance for 2070 price then people whos waiting for navi will go out and buy 2070 because RT/DLSS or will not upgrade at all(because its overpriced like 2070)

Features or no, you don't aim at an existing card that's been out for 9 months (2070: Oct 2018) with the same price. That's not how you gain market share, which AMD needs desperately. Their 2070-fighter should be undercutting the 2070 by a bit, so that NV will either have to lower prices or rely on Ampere to compete.