Roulette Theory

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: alkemyst

Originally posted by: Special K
It may have worked for you, but I'm saying if you analyzed the probabilities associated with your strategy, I doubt the expected value of the winnings would be in your favor.

It sounds like another case of the gambler's fallacy to me - i.e. let's say you roll a dice 100 times and never roll a single 6. The gambler's fallacy would say "I haven't rolled a 6 in 100 rolls! That means I'm more likely to roll one in the future!"

I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

uh, the chance of me getting 1/6 is 1/6 everytime, regardless of how many times I roll the die?

 

[DBL]

Originally posted by: alkemyst
It's a bit more complicated than that...casinos have to have their odds posted and have to have at least one set winner...however; they can stack those odds up in a way to make it tough for the average better to win and the high roller to not be interested in such a slow payout.

Taking Queueing Theory (not the base level 101 type class) you learn how to use these odds well. My instructor and 2 students of his became big time gamblers and have been banned from many casinos.

The big breakdown in these systems comes from discipline and second guessing the mechanism. All it takes is a little variance and you now ruined your odds.

I play low stakes but always leave a little better than I came usually. When I am down I am usually down no more than what the entertainment value was.

My brother works with resorts / casinos a lot and since the nights are his there (while being fully comped) he bets a lot and wins a lot.

The best odds you will have is places that allow for 'tourist' tables (don't know the real term for them) where you are betting against each other and the house just takes a cut of the pot. There are a lot of wannabe Poker Masters at these tables and they really have no freaking clue most of the time. The danger like online gambling is when they are working together against the others at the table.

Your post is all over the map. Are you talking about Poker or table games? Two very different things. Obviously, you can win at poker by being better then most of the players around you so long as the rake is also factored in. Your fellow players have nothing to do with your odds in other table games however.

 

[DBL]

Originally posted by: alkemyst

Originally posted by: Special K
It may have worked for you, but I'm saying if you analyzed the probabilities associated with your strategy, I doubt the expected value of the winnings would be in your favor.

It sounds like another case of the gambler's fallacy to me - i.e. let's say you roll a dice 100 times and never roll a single 6. The gambler's fallacy would say "I haven't rolled a 6 in 100 rolls! That means I'm more likely to roll one in the future!"

I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

He's correct. Pretty basic stuff for someone who has taken at least an elementary probabilities course.

 

[TuxDave]

Originally posted by: alkemyst

Originally posted by: Special K
It may have worked for you, but I'm saying if you analyzed the probabilities associated with your strategy, I doubt the expected value of the winnings would be in your favor.

It sounds like another case of the gambler's fallacy to me - i.e. let's say you roll a dice 100 times and never roll a single 6. The gambler's fallacy would say "I haven't rolled a 6 in 100 rolls! That means I'm more likely to roll one in the future!"

I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

What's wrong with his post?

 

[911paramedic]

As somebody that used to live and work in Vegas, I feel the need to say...

Bwaaaahahahahahaha!

 

[DBL]

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: alkemyst
I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

uh, the chance of me getting 1/6 is 1/6 everytime, regardless of how many times I roll the die?

No, you must use discipline and second guess the mechanism.

 

[911paramedic]

P.S. Walk up to a casino manager and tell him you have a "system", they'll probably comp you a room right then and there.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: DBL

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: alkemyst
I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

uh, the chance of me getting 1/6 is 1/6 everytime, regardless of how many times I roll the die?

No, you must use discipline and second guess the mechanism.

Second guess the mechanism? WTF does that mean?

 

[maziwanka]

the 0 and 00 screw everything up

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: Gibsons

Originally posted by: DBL

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: alkemyst
I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

uh, the chance of me getting 1/6 is 1/6 everytime, regardless of how many times I roll the die?

No, you must use discipline and second guess the mechanism.

Second guess the mechanism? WTF does that mean?

it means that no system will stop the fact that the odds of me rolling a 1/6 are 1/6 everytime.


check your sarcasm meter. if you're interested we're going to be having a group buy as soon as the mods allow.

 

[glutenberg]

Originally posted by: Gibsons

Originally posted by: DBL

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: alkemyst
I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

uh, the chance of me getting 1/6 is 1/6 everytime, regardless of how many times I roll the die?

No, you must use discipline and second guess the mechanism.

Second guess the mechanism? WTF does that mean?

It's a Sicilian.

 

[RadiclDreamer]

Originally posted by: alien42
i will be LMAO when you lose 6-8 times in a row and can not afford that next double down.

roulette = worst odds in the casino

Ever seen the odds for keno?

 

[hehatedme]

Originally posted by: Fritzo

Originally posted by: JC86
Actually, the dealer once told me the safest best in roullete is to bet 1-18, which has a 1-1 payoff and bet the 3rd 12 (which has a 2-1 payoff). Bet the same amounts on both bets and you've covered all the numbers on the table except the zeroes and 19-24. If you hit the numbers between 1-18, you break even and if you hit the 3rd 12, which is 25-36, you win the amount you bet since the payoff is 2-1 and you only lost the amount you bet on 1-18. You can of course, bet the other way around too and bet the 1st 12 and then 19-36. which would leave only 13-18 uncovered by your bets. Obviously, the dealer still has the edge because of 0 and 00 and the numbers not covered in the middle but your odds of losing are the lowest under this betting method. I've tried it myself and came away up nearly a thousand dollars betting $40 per round. By my rough count, I was able to break even or come out on top 5 out of six times. It took me all afternoon at the table to win the amount I did and for those seeking instant gratification, this isn't the way to go but if you want to play it safe, I don't know if there is anything safer than this method.

That's the idea actually. You place bets in zones that cover each other, and odds are your winnings will cover your losses. Also, play European wheels instead of American style. European wheels do not have a 00...only a single 0, so there's more black and red.

That strategy is no different than just picking red or black. Regardless of how you bet on a roulette table, its a fixed probability of winning and losing. Its also why over a lifetime's worth of gambling the casino will be up against any individual at least 3 standard deviations out.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: Gibsons

Originally posted by: DBL

Originally posted by: NeuroSynapsis

Originally posted by: alkemyst
I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

uh, the chance of me getting 1/6 is 1/6 everytime, regardless of how many times I roll the die?

No, you must use discipline and second guess the mechanism.

Second guess the mechanism? WTF does that mean?

it means that no system will stop the fact that the odds of me rolling a 1/6 are 1/6 everytime.


check your sarcasm meter. if you're interested we're going to be having a group buy as soon as the mods allow.

It seems my sarcasm meter is busted tonight. Sorry bout that... .

 

[EagleKeeper]

Please visit and demostrate your theorys.

All of you experts (aka suckers) are more than welcome.

When I am in town, I will comp you a meal and drink.

Keeps me from paying state income tax.

 

[aplefka]

Originally posted by: Crusty
You go to Casinos to have fun, not win money. If you think otherwise you are an idiot.

Call me an idiot, but I've done pretty well for myself with poker. And I never expect anything less than to win money. Are you going to tell me that poker is all luck too?

 

[silverpig]

Assuming no limit and an infinite supply of money you will always win with this method. However, there is a limit, and you don't have an infinite supply of money.

 

[spidey07]

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper
Please visit and demostrate your theorys.

All of you experts (aka suckers) are more than welcome.

When I am in town, I will comp you a meal and drink.

Keeps me from paying state income tax.

meh, according to my w2-gs and records I'm up 8 grand already this year. And that's nothing more than ponies, craps, blackjack and the occasional 5 dollar slot when I've got winnings to play with.

Call me a sucker. I somehow am lucky. Sure I lose my bankroll entirely sometimes and it happens, but that is rare. I'd say 1 in 6 rare. Going to the track this weekend, we'll see how it goes.

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: alkemyst

Originally posted by: Special K
It may have worked for you, but I'm saying if you analyzed the probabilities associated with your strategy, I doubt the expected value of the winnings would be in your favor.

It sounds like another case of the gambler's fallacy to me - i.e. let's say you roll a dice 100 times and never roll a single 6. The gambler's fallacy would say "I haven't rolled a 6 in 100 rolls! That means I'm more likely to roll one in the future!"

I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

Self ownage.

 

[Darwin333]

Originally posted by: Demon-Xanth

Originally posted by: alien42
i will be LMAO when you lose 6-8 times in a row and can not afford that next double down.

roulette = worst odds in the casino

Actually, the worst is Keno. The only person that I've heard winning the top prize was a guy who worked for the Nevada Gaming Control Board and pulled an inside job and cheated.

Edit:
oh yeah, and your math is off. You'll have won $320 and lost $620. That puts you in the pwned bin.

You might want to bust out the calculator.

It is still a good way to donate a ton of money to a Casino though.

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: spidey07

Originally posted by: EagleKeeper
Please visit and demostrate your theorys.

All of you experts (aka suckers) are more than welcome.

When I am in town, I will comp you a meal and drink.

Keeps me from paying state income tax.

meh, according to my w2-gs and records I'm up 8 grand already this year. And that's nothing more than ponies, craps, blackjack and the occasional 5 dollar slot when I've got winnings to play with.

Call me a sucker. I somehow am lucky. Sure I lose my bankroll entirely sometimes and it happens, but that is rare. I'd say 1 in 6 rare. Going to the track this weekend, we'll see how it goes.

you are rare

vegas wasn't built on winners

 

[Fritzo]

Originally posted by: hehatedme

Originally posted by: Fritzo

Originally posted by: JC86
Actually, the dealer once told me the safest best in roullete is to bet 1-18, which has a 1-1 payoff and bet the 3rd 12 (which has a 2-1 payoff). Bet the same amounts on both bets and you've covered all the numbers on the table except the zeroes and 19-24. If you hit the numbers between 1-18, you break even and if you hit the 3rd 12, which is 25-36, you win the amount you bet since the payoff is 2-1 and you only lost the amount you bet on 1-18. You can of course, bet the other way around too and bet the 1st 12 and then 19-36. which would leave only 13-18 uncovered by your bets. Obviously, the dealer still has the edge because of 0 and 00 and the numbers not covered in the middle but your odds of losing are the lowest under this betting method. I've tried it myself and came away up nearly a thousand dollars betting $40 per round. By my rough count, I was able to break even or come out on top 5 out of six times. It took me all afternoon at the table to win the amount I did and for those seeking instant gratification, this isn't the way to go but if you want to play it safe, I don't know if there is anything safer than this method.

That's the idea actually. You place bets in zones that cover each other, and odds are your winnings will cover your losses. Also, play European wheels instead of American style. European wheels do not have a 00...only a single 0, so there's more black and red.

That strategy is no different than just picking red or black. Regardless of how you bet on a roulette table, its a fixed probability of winning and losing. Its also why over a lifetime's worth of gambling the casino will be up against any individual at least 3 standard deviations out.

Funny how I use this strategy and end up winning at least $500 everytime I go to Vegas. How about that.

 

[alkemyst]

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: alkemyst

Originally posted by: Special K
It may have worked for you, but I'm saying if you analyzed the probabilities associated with your strategy, I doubt the expected value of the winnings would be in your favor.

It sounds like another case of the gambler's fallacy to me - i.e. let's say you roll a dice 100 times and never roll a single 6. The gambler's fallacy would say "I haven't rolled a 6 in 100 rolls! That means I'm more likely to roll one in the future!"

I am not thinking you understand the way odds and probablities work.

Self ownage.

How do you figure? I know I am very right here.

to the other poster your chance to roll a 6 on a six sided dice is 1/6 yes, but the chances of getting a 6 in x number of rolls is not 1/6 at all.

I would think our members would understand basic statistics/probability a little better.

If one never hits a 6 on a 6 sided die in 100 rolls I would bet that die is fixed.

 

[Thorny]

Originally posted by: Fritzo

Originally posted by: hehatedme

Originally posted by: Fritzo

Originally posted by: JC86
Actually, the dealer once told me the safest best in roullete is to bet 1-18, which has a 1-1 payoff and bet the 3rd 12 (which has a 2-1 payoff). Bet the same amounts on both bets and you've covered all the numbers on the table except the zeroes and 19-24. If you hit the numbers between 1-18, you break even and if you hit the 3rd 12, which is 25-36, you win the amount you bet since the payoff is 2-1 and you only lost the amount you bet on 1-18. You can of course, bet the other way around too and bet the 1st 12 and then 19-36. which would leave only 13-18 uncovered by your bets. Obviously, the dealer still has the edge because of 0 and 00 and the numbers not covered in the middle but your odds of losing are the lowest under this betting method. I've tried it myself and came away up nearly a thousand dollars betting $40 per round. By my rough count, I was able to break even or come out on top 5 out of six times. It took me all afternoon at the table to win the amount I did and for those seeking instant gratification, this isn't the way to go but if you want to play it safe, I don't know if there is anything safer than this method.

That's the idea actually. You place bets in zones that cover each other, and odds are your winnings will cover your losses. Also, play European wheels instead of American style. European wheels do not have a 00...only a single 0, so there's more black and red.

That strategy is no different than just picking red or black. Regardless of how you bet on a roulette table, its a fixed probability of winning and losing. Its also why over a lifetime's worth of gambling the casino will be up against any individual at least 3 standard deviations out.

Funny how I use this strategy and end up winning at least $500 everytime I go to Vegas. How about that.

I also use this method. 4 out of 5 times I come home with more than I started with, and thats after a night out on the town. There have been at least 5 times in the last couple of years that I ended up ahead over $1000, never have I ended up down over $500 for the night. I've never seen a european wheel though, everyone around here is american.

 

[JC86]

I also don't recall seeing a European wheel, I normally play at the Venetian or Mandalay Bay when I'm at Las Vegas. Anyone know where you can find the European wheel in Vegas? I'm not math theorist but from what I can tell, this method is different from betting Black and Red because 1) you cover more numbers and 2) if you hit the 2-1 payoff, you are actually ahead the amount you bet.