Romney ahead and gaining among women

[cybrsage]

The Associated Press-GfK poll showed Romney pulling 47 percent of likely voters to Obama's 45 percent -- a split within the margin of error, but which certainly challenges the president's claim of having the edge. Even in the battleground states, which decide the election, polls now reflect a series of tossups.


A month ago, women favored Obama over Romney on the economy 56 percent to 40 percent. Now, the split has shifted to 49 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-poll-again-shows-romney-ahead/#ixzz2ALUuIKXV

Uh oh, Obama is losing one of the groups he needs to keep under his thumb in order to win the election. What will he do now?

 

[Blackjack200]

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-poll-again-shows-romney-ahead/#ixzz2ALUuIKXV

Yeah... no thanks.

Uh oh, Obama is losing one of the groups he needs to keep under his thumb in order to win the election. What will he do now?

I don't know. What do you think he should do?

 

[GarfieldtheCat]

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-poll-again-shows-romney-ahead/#ixzz2ALUuIKXV

Uh oh, Obama is losing one of the groups he needs to keep under his thumb in order to win the election. What will he do now?

Hmm...funny our #1 troll forgets this part of the article:

The Associated Press-GfK survey was no different. But significantly, the poll showed each candidate's gender advantage shrinking. The poll showed Romney erasing the president's 16-point lead among women, pulling to a 47-47 percent tie. Also, Romney's 13-point advantage among men had shrunk to 5 points in the poll.

So Obama is gaining with men, just as Romney is gaining with women.

That must have totally been an honest mistake from a troll, right?

 

[yllus]

Er? I've read only the contrary.

NYTimes.com - ‘Gender Gap’ Near Historic Highs

If only women voted, President Obama would be on track for a landslide re-election, equaling or exceeding his margin of victory over John McCain in 2008. Mr. Obama would be an overwhelming favorite in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and most every other place that is conventionally considered a swing state. The only question would be whether he could forge ahead into traditionally red states, like Georgia, Montana and Arizona.

If only men voted, Mr. Obama would be biding his time until a crushing defeat at the hands of Mitt Romney, who might win by a similar margin to the one Ronald Reagan realized over Jimmy Carter in 1980. Only California, Illinois, Hawaii and a few states in the Northeast could be considered safely Democratic. Every other state would lean red, or would at least be a toss-up.

Although polls disagree on the exact magnitude of the gender gap (and a couple of recent ones seemed to show Mitt Romney eliminating the president’s advantage with women voters), the consensus of surveys points to a large one this year — rivaling the biggest from past elections.

The gender gap is nothing new in American politics. Since 1972, when exit polling became widespread, men and women split their votes in three elections: 1996, 2000, and 2004. They came close to doing so on several other occasions. In 2008, for example, Mr. Obama won resoundingly among women, beating Mr. McCain by 13 points, but only won by a single point among men.

The biggest gender gap to date in the exit polls came in 2000, when Al Gore won by 11 points among women, but George W. Bush won by 9 points among men — a 20-point difference. The numbers this year look very close to that.

Since the first presidential debate in Denver, there have been 10 high-quality national polls that reported a breakout of results between men and women. (I define a “high-quality” poll as one that used live telephone interviews, and which called both landlines and cellphones. These polls will collect the most representative samples and should provide for the most reliable benchmarks of demographic trends.)

The results in the polls were varied, with the gender gap ranging from 33 points (in a Zogby telephone poll for the Washington Times) to just 8 (in polls by Pew Research and by The Washington Post). On average, however, there was an 18-point gender gap, with Mr. Obama leading by an average of 9 points among women but trailing by 9 points among men.

 

[jpeyton]

In other news, Obama's leading in Ohio, and Romney's path to an electoral college victory without that state is next to impossible.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

The article (not surprisingly given the source, Fox News) is titled in a misleading way, as is this thread (which in fairness is just repeating the Fox title). The article doesn't say Romney is "ahead" among women generally, just on one particular topic, the economy. Meanwhile, for example:

The poll still showed Obama with a hefty lead, 55 percent to 41 percent, among female likely voters on the question of which candidate would make the right decisions on women's issues.

Moreover, the article fails to recognize the reality that this election cycle is among the most unbalanced among women voters in modern history, with Obama an overwhelming favorite among the women whose vote matters: those in swing states.

From http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/gender-gap-near-historic-highs/ -

If only women voted, President Obama would be on track for a landslide re-election, equaling or exceeding his margin of victory over John McCain in 2008. Mr. Obama would be an overwhelming favorite in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and most every other place that is conventionally considered a swing state. The only question would be whether he could forge ahead into traditionally red states, like Georgia, Montana and Arizona.

If only men voted, Mr. Obama would be biding his time until a crushing defeat at the hands of Mitt Romney, who might win by a similar margin to the one Ronald Reagan realized over Jimmy Carter in 1980. Only California, Illinois, Hawaii and a few states in the Northeast could be considered safely Democratic. Every other state would lean red, or would at least be a toss-up.

Although polls disagree on the exact magnitude of the gender gap (and a couple of recent ones seemed to show Mitt Romney eliminating the president’s advantage with women voters), the consensus of surveys points to a large one this year — rivaling the biggest from past elections.

* * *

The biggest gender gap to date in the exit polls came in 2000, when Al Gore won by 11 points among women, but George W. Bush won by 9 points among men — a 20-point difference. The numbers this year look very close to that.

Since the first presidential debate in Denver, there have been 10 high-quality national polls that reported a breakout of results between men and women. (I define a “high-quality” poll as one that used live telephone interviews, and which called both landlines and cellphones. These polls will collect the most representative samples and should provide for the most reliable benchmarks of demographic trends.)

The results in the polls were varied, with the gender gap ranging from 33 points (in a Zogby telephone poll for the Washington Times) to just 8 (in polls by Pew Research and by The Washington Post). On average, however, there was an 18-point gender gap, with Mr. Obama leading by an average of 9 points among women but trailing by 9 points among men.

If that difference carries forward to the exit polls, it would reflect among the largest gender splits ever, rivaling the 20-point difference from 2000, and a 17-point difference in both 1980 and 1996.

* * *

If anything, given that at least some of these polls were taken after the President lost the first debate, but before he won the second and third debates, I would expect him to lengthen his lead among women relative to what the polls show.

EDIT: yllus beat me to this citation!

 

[Doppel]

Obama is still well ahead in EC. Nothing to see here, folks.

 

[K1052]

Romney couldn't find his way into this gap with both hands, a flashlight, and a map.

 

[Phokus]

Cybersage is too stupid to realize that the presidency is won on electoral votes

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Cybersage is too stupid to realize that the presidency is won on electoral votes

It's not stupidity. It's propaganda.

This poll doesn't have crosstabs showing how men and women split in their vote, making the article in question meaningless puffery. Pretty much all recent polls have a significant gender gap with women by far preferring Obama. And that was before Mourdock shot himself in the foot.

 

[sigurros81]

Read more: foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/25/after-obama-claims-has-lead-new-poll-again-shows-romney-ahead/#ixzz2ALUuIKXV

Nuff said.

 

[spidey07]

It's not stupidity. It's propaganda.

This poll doesn't have crosstabs showing how men and women split in their vote, making the article in question meaningless puffery. Pretty much all recent polls have a significant gender gap with women by far preferring Obama.

What? Women do not prefer Obama. It's even for women, and Romney is ahead overall.

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-poll-romney-erases-obama-advantage-among-women-071129692--election.html

Those churning gender dynamics leave the presidential race still a virtual dead heat, with Romney favored by 47 percent of likely voters and Obama by 45 percent, a result within the poll's margin of sampling error, the survey shows.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

The poll is here. It doesn't say what the actual preference split is for men and women.

 

[MovingTarget]

Romney's gains amongst women are tenuous at best. He and Ryan are one comment on rape, abortion, contraception, equal pay, etc. away from losing a significant chunk of the female vote. I still believe that women will remember the GOP's abhorrent statements and policies come November 6th.

 

[spidey07]

Romney's gains amongst women are tenuous at best. He and Ryan are one comment on rape, abortion, contraception, equal pay, etc. away from losing a significant chunk of the female vote. I still believe that women will remember the GOP's abhorrent statements and policies come November 6th.

As the polls indicate, they remember obama's economic disaster much more and prefer Romney on that front. This is all about the economy as much as democrats and obama try to distract from that. Women care if their husbands or they can put food on the table and gas in the car above all else, security comes first.

 

[HomerJS]

These polls were taken before the Murdock kerfuffel.

Women are going to hear another Republican got on his soapbox concerning women and rape.

When they discover Romney endorses a candidate that said if a woman is raped and becomes pregnant its God's will, that gender gap will swing back.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

I'd like to see one of the right-wingers show me a well-respected national or swing state poll that has Romney beating Obama among women even before Mourdock. I'm talking about "whom will you vote for", not "whom do you trust on the economy".

 

[UberNeuman]

Women love Romney. Just ask his wives.

 

[soundforbjt]

Women love Romney. Just ask his wives.

Or ask the "binders full of women".

 

[Jhhnn]

I think it's great that Righties are puffing up their expectations- it'll make defeat even more bitter, feed their persecution complex, set them off on a teahadist purge of reason from the ranks of the Repub Party.

Maybe they'll run Spidey in 2016...

Women have been on a slow burn wrt Repubs in general & Romney, rightfully so. They're holding a grudge, quietly biding their time, waiting for the right moment to plant the knife right to the hilt- Nov 6.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is delusional.

 

[Doppel]

I think it's great that Righties are puffing up their expectations- it'll make defeat even more bitter, feed their persecution complex, set them off on a teahadist purge of reason from the ranks of the Repub Party.

Maybe they'll run Spidey in 2016...

Women have been on a slow burn wrt Repubs in general & Romney, rightfully so. They're holding a grudge, quietly biding their time, waiting for the right moment to plant the knife right to the hilt- Nov 6.

Anybody who thinks otherwise is delusional.

Growing minorities also don't like the republicans. The party in its current form is doomed to obscurity. It is going to have to refashion itself or continue to lose ground.

 

[spidey07]

Growing minorities also don't like the republicans. The party in its current form is doomed to obscurity. It is going to have to refashion itself or continue to lose ground.

2010 is calling, guess you didn't learn from that and the historic sweep at the state, local and federal level. Americans are downright pissed off at this president and democrats. Anger is one of the most powerful emotions, it motivates one to act.

See you in November, it's almost here.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

2010 is calling...

Cool, got any pix of the time machine?

 

[umbrella39]

Is there any semblance of self respect left from our resident GOP fanbois? Is there no ceiling to the stupid you retards are willing to expose each day? Seriously some of you just need to start the engine and shut the garage door. You are already braindead. Gift of life has been notified.

 

[actuarial]

What? Women do not prefer Obama. It's even for women, and Romney is ahead overall.

http://news.yahoo.com/ap-poll-romney-erases-obama-advantage-among-women-071129692--election.html

Maybe I missed something in your link, but I only see the female preference on certain issues, not who they are going to vote for.