News Roe v. Wade overturned

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gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
1,858
1,624
136
Maybe young women will finally decide to vote to at least keep their rights at state levels and maybe get a chance to appoint new justices or pack the courts. But I am not optimistic. They think magical politicians will take care of them, even if they don't bother turning out to win majorities.

Didn't minority women already vote overwhelmingly for Dems in the last cycle? Or are you expecting female GOP voters to jump ship now?

This "overturning Roe will backfire on the GOP" is a fallacy. Where are the votes going to magically come from?
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
Next, the fundies will be going after conception. No rubbers for YOU.
The day will come when some Trump fundie redneck shows up at your door, puts a gun to your head, and by law insists that you rape his daughter.
 
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Indus

Diamond Member
May 11, 2002
9,751
6,368
136
Didn't minority women already vote overwhelmingly for Dems in the last cycle? Or are you expecting female GOP voters to jump ship now?

This "overturning Roe will backfire on the GOP" is a fallacy. Where are the votes going to magically come from?

Like any vote matters from now on.. the fix is in after the Big Lie.

Trump party wins for the next 400 years!
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,785
6,187
126
As a Democrat who also cares about issues other than abortion, I think this ruling helps my side. It divides GOP, unites Democrats, and hopefully turns out young women. And we haven't even gotten to the return of back alley abortion horror stories.
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
326
126
Interesting - completely unconfirmed and speculative, but interesting

"A person called Amit Jain clerks for Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor. As a Yale student, Jain blasted Yale for supporting Brett Kavanaugh's nomination. Jain was quoted in a 2017 Politico piece by Josh Gerstein. Today, Gerstein published the draft SCOTUS opinion on Roe."
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,785
6,187
126
Didn't minority women already vote overwhelmingly for Dems in the last cycle? Or are you expecting female GOP voters to jump ship now?
This "overturning Roe will backfire on the GOP" is a fallacy. Where are the votes going to magically come from?
It's about turnout, but GOP could also lose suburban voters over this. Abortion will now be on the ballot in every election. Democrats are united on this issue. GOP will now be forced to pick between evangelicals who want a total abortion ban and moderates who just want tax cuts and government to get out of their private lives.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,785
6,187
126
Interesting - completely unconfirmed and speculative, but interesting
"A person called Amit Jain clerks for Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor. As a Yale student, Jain blasted Yale for supporting Brett Kavanaugh's nomination. Jain was quoted in a 2017 Politico piece by Josh Gerstein. Today, Gerstein published the draft SCOTUS opinion on Roe."
Good if true that at least someone is trying to disrupt the rigged judicial system from the inside.
 
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Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,613
13,296
146
As a Democrat who also cares about issues other than abortion, I think this ruling helps my side. It divides GOP, unites Democrats, and hopefully turns out young women. And we haven't even gotten to the return of back alley abortion horror stories.
Probably need to start a thread like the COVID one estimating the number of dead women from botched abortions until this travesty is overturned (if ever).
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,893
32,685
136
It's about turnout, but GOP could also lose suburban voters over this. Abortion will now be on the ballot in every election. Democrats are united on this issue. GOP will now be forced to pick between evangelicals who want a total abortion ban and moderates who just want tax cuts and government to get out of their private lives.

Extreme restrictions are quite unpopular and until this mostly theoretical so nobody really worried about it that much. Different situation now which is why conservatives are so far not celebrating and mostly complaining about the leak. Even they don’t know what happens after.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,785
6,187
126
Extreme restrictions are quite unpopular and until this mostly theoretical so nobody really worried about it that much. Different situation now which is why conservatives are so far not celebrating and mostly complaining about the leak. Even they don’t know what happens after.

According to the betting markets current assessment a 10% change in likelihood of Roe being overruled seems to correspond to about 5% change in likelihood of Dems holding House.

 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
32,200
14,875
136
What this shows is though is that the interpretation of laws and rights is not ended once the Supreme Court makes a ruling. The court will now be politicized to the extremes and there will be an arms race via the Supreme Court where the party in charge will expand/shrink the courts whenever they can in order to get the political leaning they choose.

I’ll just repost this thread here:



Those threads brought up many points and stated what some red lines might be and some of those lines have been crossed.

I really hope Americans are ready for what’s coming.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,893
32,685
136
According to the betting markets current assessment a 10% change in likelihood of Roe being overruled seems to correspond to about 5% change in likelihood of Dems holding House.


Betting markets are poor predictors of these things. How this impacts depends on a lot of factors.
 
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Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,557
3,036
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Extreme restrictions are quite unpopular and until this mostly theoretical so nobody really worried about it that much. Different situation now which is why conservatives are so far not celebrating and mostly complaining about the leak. Even they don’t know what happens after.
Extreme restrictions are the absolute minimum the hardcore Republican theocracy base are demanding. And they’ve seen basically zero pushback or consequence upon enacting such laws (see: Texas)
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,893
32,685
136
Extreme restrictions are the absolute minimum the hardcore Republican theocracy base are demanding. And they’ve seen basically zero pushback or consequence upon enacting such laws (see: Texas)

Republicans touting no electoral consequences for this before they have faced any real test like statewide elections seems a little cart before the horse. Maybe they will be right, maybe the won’t.
 

Sunburn74

Diamond Member
Oct 5, 2009
5,025
2,593
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Extreme restrictions are the absolute minimum the hardcore Republican theocracy base are demanding. And they’ve seen basically zero pushback or consequence upon enacting such laws (see: Texas)
Well its a bit early really. I mean the legal challenges are ongoing and its not like elections have happened. You also haven't started to hear the horror stories of back alley abortions which start creeping back into the news. Its a bit early to say there has been zero consequence