News Roe v. Wade overturned

[K1052]

LOL what makes you think Roberts can do anything.. they have 5 votes already.

I was just remarking on the rapid counter leak.

 

[ivwshane]

Good job Supreme Court! Way to remove rights from the people!

 

[gothuevos]

List them.

The blue ones.

 

[ivwshane]

So how many states have trigger laws once this ruling goes live?

 

[gothuevos]

Maybe young women will finally decide to vote to at least keep their rights at state levels and maybe get a chance to appoint new justices or pack the courts. But I am not optimistic. They think magical politicians will take care of them, even if they don't bother turning out to win majorities.

Didn't minority women already vote overwhelmingly for Dems in the last cycle? Or are you expecting female GOP voters to jump ship now?

This "overturning Roe will backfire on the GOP" is a fallacy. Where are the votes going to magically come from?

 

[sportage]

Next, the fundies will be going after conception. No rubbers for YOU.
The day will come when some Trump fundie redneck shows up at your door, puts a gun to your head, and by law insists that you rape his daughter.

 

[Indus]

Didn't minority women already vote overwhelmingly for Dems in the last cycle? Or are you expecting female GOP voters to jump ship now?

This "overturning Roe will backfire on the GOP" is a fallacy. Where are the votes going to magically come from?

Like any vote matters from now on.. the fix is in after the Big Lie.

Trump party wins for the next 400 years!

 

[senseamp]

As a Democrat who also cares about issues other than abortion, I think this ruling helps my side. It divides GOP, unites Democrats, and hopefully turns out young women. And we haven't even gotten to the return of back alley abortion horror stories.

 

[soulcougher73]

The US had a good run. Oh well.

 

[Moonbeam]

So how many states have trigger laws once this ruling goes live?

I think 13 but just what I seem to remember.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Total meltdown happing at SCOTUS

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521316796103487489

Fuck Roberts and his court. Wish he could die of AIDS like Trump's right hand man Roy Cohn did.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

The US had a good run. Oh well.

We had like 35 good years 1945-1980

 

[dphantom]

Interesting - completely unconfirmed and speculative, but interesting

"A person called Amit Jain clerks for Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor. As a Yale student, Jain blasted Yale for supporting Brett Kavanaugh's nomination. Jain was quoted in a 2017 Politico piece by Josh Gerstein. Today, Gerstein published the draft SCOTUS opinion on Roe."

 

[senseamp]

Didn't minority women already vote overwhelmingly for Dems in the last cycle? Or are you expecting female GOP voters to jump ship now?
This "overturning Roe will backfire on the GOP" is a fallacy. Where are the votes going to magically come from?

It's about turnout, but GOP could also lose suburban voters over this. Abortion will now be on the ballot in every election. Democrats are united on this issue. GOP will now be forced to pick between evangelicals who want a total abortion ban and moderates who just want tax cuts and government to get out of their private lives.

 

[senseamp]

Interesting - completely unconfirmed and speculative, but interesting
"A person called Amit Jain clerks for Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor. As a Yale student, Jain blasted Yale for supporting Brett Kavanaugh's nomination. Jain was quoted in a 2017 Politico piece by Josh Gerstein. Today, Gerstein published the draft SCOTUS opinion on Roe."

Good if true that at least someone is trying to disrupt the rigged judicial system from the inside.

 

[Paratus]

As a Democrat who also cares about issues other than abortion, I think this ruling helps my side. It divides GOP, unites Democrats, and hopefully turns out young women. And we haven't even gotten to the return of back alley abortion horror stories.

Probably need to start a thread like the COVID one estimating the number of dead women from botched abortions until this travesty is overturned (if ever).

 

[K1052]

It's about turnout, but GOP could also lose suburban voters over this. Abortion will now be on the ballot in every election. Democrats are united on this issue. GOP will now be forced to pick between evangelicals who want a total abortion ban and moderates who just want tax cuts and government to get out of their private lives.

Extreme restrictions are quite unpopular and until this mostly theoretical so nobody really worried about it that much. Different situation now which is why conservatives are so far not celebrating and mostly complaining about the leak. Even they don’t know what happens after.

 

[senseamp]

Extreme restrictions are quite unpopular and until this mostly theoretical so nobody really worried about it that much. Different situation now which is why conservatives are so far not celebrating and mostly complaining about the leak. Even they don’t know what happens after.

According to the betting markets current assessment a 10% change in likelihood of Roe being overruled seems to correspond to about 5% change in likelihood of Dems holding House.

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

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Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

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Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

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[ivwshane]

What this shows is though is that the interpretation of laws and rights is not ended once the Supreme Court makes a ruling. The court will now be politicized to the extremes and there will be an arms race via the Supreme Court where the party in charge will expand/shrink the courts whenever they can in order to get the political leaning they choose.

I’ll just repost this thread here:

Are we there yet...

If Kavanagh is confirmed, would that be the moment we cross over into fascism? I know that sounds extreme and alarmist but allow me to explain. Fascism doesn't happen via a hostile takeover where one day everything is fine and the next day we have a military coup. It happens slowly and fascist...

forums.anandtech.com

When do you stop fascism from happening?

During Obama's presidency and now with trumps presidency many people said the US was turning into a dictatorship or becoming fascist. For the sake of this thread lets not make this about either president. Everyone likes to say that if they had a time machine they would go back and kill Hitler...

forums.anandtech.com

Those threads brought up many points and stated what some red lines might be and some of those lines have been crossed.

I really hope Americans are ready for what’s coming.

 

[Paratus]

In addition to voting it would probably be good to identify and target the financial backers of the Federalist Society through whatever legal or financial means are available.

 

[K1052]

According to the betting markets current assessment a 10% change in likelihood of Roe being overruled seems to correspond to about 5% change in likelihood of Dems holding House.

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

electionbettingodds.com

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

electionbettingodds.com

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

electionbettingodds.com

Betting markets are poor predictors of these things. How this impacts depends on a lot of factors.

 

[Dave_5k]

Extreme restrictions are quite unpopular and until this mostly theoretical so nobody really worried about it that much. Different situation now which is why conservatives are so far not celebrating and mostly complaining about the leak. Even they don’t know what happens after.

Extreme restrictions are the absolute minimum the hardcore Republican theocracy base are demanding. And they’ve seen basically zero pushback or consequence upon enacting such laws (see: Texas)

 

[K1052]

Extreme restrictions are the absolute minimum the hardcore Republican theocracy base are demanding. And they’ve seen basically zero pushback or consequence upon enacting such laws (see: Texas)

Republicans touting no electoral consequences for this before they have faced any real test like statewide elections seems a little cart before the horse. Maybe they will be right, maybe the won’t.

 

[senseamp]

Betting markets are poor predictors of these things. How this impacts depends on a lot of factors.

I am just looking at conditional probabilities the markets assign to various outcomes. Not whether they are right or not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

 

[Sunburn74]

Extreme restrictions are the absolute minimum the hardcore Republican theocracy base are demanding. And they’ve seen basically zero pushback or consequence upon enacting such laws (see: Texas)

Well its a bit early really. I mean the legal challenges are ongoing and its not like elections have happened. You also haven't started to hear the horror stories of back alley abortions which start creeping back into the news. Its a bit early to say there has been zero consequence