Richland & Kabini rumours

[Abwx]

You see things at micro economic level......

ATIC , wich own Glofo , is owned by ABu Dhabi sovereign funds
wich are also owner of the MUbadala fund that recently poured
money into AMD.

 

[mrmt]

You see things at micro economic level......

ATIC , wich own Glofo , is owned by ABu Dhabi sovereign funds
wich are also owner of the MUbadala fund that recently poured
money into AMD.

So what? Mubadala so far extended a lifeline to the biggest customer of their baby child, AMD. But it's not a game changer money, it is in fact pocket change compared to the more than 5 billion they already sunk in GLF (and will have to sink a lot more to make it a viable competitor to TSMC).

All those WSA decisions taken by GLF that are strangling AMD were taken when GLF had over 50% of their capacity destined to AMD. It was not a wise strategy to strangle your most important, and poster child customer and yet they went straight to that route.

Now they have less than 20%, AMD clout is even smaller. In two or three years, given current developments, AMD will be irrelevant enough to GLF to the point that the Abu Dhabi government will not find worth to sink more money into AMD and will let it go bankrupt.

 

[SiliconWars]

A more realistic reason for why AMD cut down on cpu orders is that the mobo manufacturers have been too cautious with mobos, or told AMD that they are only going with a certain amount. Trinity is selling and what's more the price is holding steady, so AMD is clearly constrained somewhere. They would not have paid GF to cut down on cpu orders otherwise.

 

[ShintaiDK]

A more realistic reason for why AMD cut down on cpu orders is that the mobo manufacturers have been too cautious with mobos, or told AMD that they are only going with a certain amount. Trinity is selling and what's more the price is holding steady, so AMD is clearly constrained somewhere. They would not have paid GF to cut down on cpu orders otherwise.

Yes, its everything but a lackbuster product, right? Everyone else is to blame but AMD.

 

[SiliconWars]

Yes, its everything but a lackbuster product, right? Everyone else is to blame but AMD.

Trinity has been out for 3 months and has stayed the same price. In fact according to the AT review the 5800K has gone up in price from $122 to $129. Care to explain how supply and demand on a "lackbuster" product is causing a price rise?

The 5600K has also risen by $8.

 

[krumme]

You see things at micro economic level......

ATIC , wich own Glofo , is owned by ABu Dhabi sovereign funds
wich are also owner of the MUbadala fund that recently poured
money into AMD.

Lets just say i see things from the micro econimic level. Here is what i see:

They pour money into huge APU design that are not competitive on the architectual level
They pour money into production that is not competitive producing designs that is not competitive

Give me the perspective on the macro level to see this is good business.

Its must be the most stupid owners ever. What is the strategic purpose?

For years i have said the ownership structure cloud all decisions. Even from inside its probably difficult to get the concequences and effects straight. It still looks like a mess from outside.

Are they still thinking of building that fab in abu dhabi? - Man that is perhaps the most hillarious thought ever. Did those people ever work in their life?

Lets have a competition. Who can find a worse place outside of the poles, mid sahara, mongolia or the jungle in Brazil?

(edit: yeaa i know, they have political reasons, read: power and eternal life, but they must have a love-hate relationship to their money. I will give them that, they have other purposes than profit. But still, why not kill AMD, and pour money forever into a huge flashy fab)

 

[mrmt]

A more realistic reason for why AMD cut down on cpu orders is that the mobo manufacturers have been too cautious with mobos, or told AMD that they are only going with a certain amount.

And why would they do that if they had not clear indications that demand for AMD processors would slump or they were not having far better deals with Intel?

 

[SiliconWars]

And why would they do that if they had not clear indications that demand for AMD processors would slump or they were not having far better deals with Intel?

Because they are tired of AMD's problems causing problems for them? Or who knows, maybe intel bribed them? There are a bunch of reasons that don't have to be product based.

Fact is, your crappy product dream just doesn't stand up to scrutiny at the retail level. Trinity is selling (and prices are rising), you'll see this is the case when AMD announces their Q4.

 

[Gideon]

A more realistic reason for why AMD cut down on cpu orders is that the mobo manufacturers have been too cautious with mobos

Are you actually serious ?

I get that, some posters here might be/seem as overly negative toward AMD, but adopting a overzelaous ("Iraqi Propaganda Minister" or "AMD can do no wrong, ever") attitude, won't benefit anyone but trolls (no, not even shills, as it will just polarizes existing opinions further).

 

[AtenRa]

A more realistic reason for why AMD cut down on cpu orders is that the mobo manufacturers have been too cautious with mobos, or told AMD that they are only going with a certain amount. Trinity is selling and what's more the price is holding steady, so AMD is clearly constrained somewhere. They would not have paid GF to cut down on cpu orders otherwise.

Yeap, i forgot about that.

There was a huge FM2 motherboard shortage with Desktop Trinity launch in Oktober. It was the first time that we had AMD CPUs on time but no motherboards 😵

We really need to see Q4 sales in order to make any conclusions.

 

[AtenRa]

Are you actually serious ?

I get that, some posters here might be/seem as overly negative toward AMD, but adopting a overzelaous ("Iraqi Propaganda Minister" or "AMD can do no wrong, ever") attitude, won't benefit anyone but trolls (no, not even shills, as it will just polarizes existing opinions further).

USA may get all the goods they need on time, but its not the same in the rest of the world, just ask people in India if they can buy Trinities and PileDrivers 3 months after the official release.

 

[SiliconWars]

Are you actually serious ?

I get that, some posters here might be/seem as overly negative toward AMD, but adopting a overzelaous ("Iraqi Propaganda Minister" or "AMD can do no wrong, ever") attitude, won't benefit anyone but trolls (no, not even shills, as it will just polarizes existing opinions further).

Did you ever consider that perhaps, mobo manufactures were overly cautious? Do you really think it's a stretch for mobo manufacturers to decide, based on the hassles they've had with AMD in the recent past, to build less mobos for AMD?

Trinity is selling and INCREASING in price. That simply means that demand is outstripping supply. There are a variety of reasons for why AMD cancelled orders but it is NOT due to a lack of demand on the product.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16819113280

5/5. People are very happy with this product. AMD either panicked (which is the 2nd most likely option) and cancelled wafers, or the mobo makers made the decision for them.

 

[AtenRa]

Yes, its everything but a lackbuster product, right? Everyone else is to blame but AMD.

Even if tomorrow AMD would release a 100mm2 die that would be faster that 3770K and at the same time had lower power consumption you would had the same negative attitude 😛

 

[Idontcare]

We dont have the meaningfull details of this corporate arrangement
but given how it was released to the gullible press , and with AMD critics
always eager to spread whatever suit their propaganda , everybody took
thoses announcements at face value.

It s a little more complicated than this , for sure , for whom is in the knowledge
of some investment funds strategies.

Dont forget that at both ends there is the same investor.

A more realistic reason for why AMD cut down on cpu orders is that the mobo manufacturers have been too cautious with mobos, or told AMD that they are only going with a certain amount. Trinity is selling and what's more the price is holding steady, so AMD is clearly constrained somewhere. They would not have paid GF to cut down on cpu orders otherwise.

Did you ever consider that perhaps, mobo manufactures were overly cautious? Do you really think it's a stretch for mobo manufacturers to decide, based on the hassles they've had with AMD in the recent past, to build less mobos for AMD?

Trinity is selling and INCREASING in price. That simply means that demand is outstripping supply. There are a variety of reasons for why AMD cancelled orders but it is NOT due to a lack of demand on the product.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16819113280

5/5. People are very happy with this product. AMD either panicked (which is the 2nd most likely option) and cancelled wafers, or the mobo makers made the decision for them.

All we know is what AMD is willing to tell us.

Clearly AMD chose their words with the intention of setting a specific expectation within the investor community regarding the current and future supply/demand situation for the products they sell.

If AMD failed to chose their words wisely enough so as to set the correct expectations then the onus is on them to set the record straight, and each and every day that they see how the market is interpreting AMD's statements and expectations (based on stock price and analyst feedback) is one more day that AMD could set the record straight if in fact the record is not currently set straight.

If AMD's supply/demand issue was one of capacity constraint at the foundry then they would say so. They have no qualms saying so when it comes to TSMC and their GPU products.

If AMD's supply/demand issue was one of mobo makers not churning out enough mobos, or of any other supply-chain limitations, then surely AMD would have said as much by now.

The alternative narrative here is that AMD's management is so incompetent, bordering on legally negligent, when it comes to managing the public expectations they set (which are then factored into the shareholder's stock valuation) that they are sitting on their hands refusing to shed any further light on the supply/demand situation above and beyond the existing perception they generated at their own hands by virtue of publicly disclosing the decision to take-and-not-pay to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Personally I don't believe there is anything more to AMD's plight than that which they have made it out to be - they chose to give away their money rather than give away the chips they could have bought from GloFo with the same money because giving away the chips would have resulted in even more losses to the balance sheet than what they were looking at losing by just giving away the cash straight up.

This isn't GloFo's fault. This isn't the mobo makers fault. There is no second shooter on the grassy knoll. The fault lies squarely on the shoulders of AMD in creating a product that doesn't have nearly the aggregate volume demand (at any price) that AMD thought it would have.

If this were VIA we would all have no problem understanding the math. If VIA signed a take-or-pay contract with TSMC and ordered $400m worth of Via Nano chips only to then realize the global TAM for their lackluster products is no more than $60m then Via would take the hit and just pay out their contract. We all can understand how VIA would find themselves unable to give away Via Nano chips because the price cannot makeup for the lacking performance to drive demand up high enough to sell $400m worth of Nano's to.

It is no different for AMD, just people don't want to accept that AMD is slowly but surely sinking in relevance just as Via once did. But this is what it looks like, and 4 yrs from now with hindsight everyone will have no problem calling it for what it was at the time...but right now there will be no shortage of frustration from people who just don't want to accept the reality of the situation.

AMD's situation is either (1) exactly as they have led us to believe it to be and that is why they aren't attempting to change our expectation to anything different, or (2) is not reflective of that which AMD management has guided the investment community to expect of AMD and in that case AMD and its shareholders continue to suffer at the hands of incompetent management who can neither effectively manage the supply chain nor the investment community.

I'm actually giving them the benefit of the doubt that option #1 is the truth, what baffles me is that people want to argue that option #2 is the reality and IMO that is a far darker outcome than option #1. You can't fix stupid, and option #2 is the hallmark of stupid. At least option#1 can be remedied.

Eyefinity is even willing to assume/accept that AMD management is prone to "panicking" and being rash with their decision making responsibilities 😱 I can't think of a worse endorsement of AMD's management than to assume they are that poor in doing their jobs as Eyefinity is assuming.

 

[SiliconWars]

Eyefinity is even willing to assume/accept that AMD management is prone to "panicking" and being rash with their decision making responsibilities 😱 I can't think of a worse endorsement of AMD's management than to assume they are that poor in doing their jobs as Eyefinity is assuming.

I agree, and tbh when I read about them cancelling wafers at first I just groaned because I knew they hadn't given Trinity enough time.

Trinity is selling because it's a 4.2 GHz quad core cpu with 7-series Radeon graphics. They didn't give it time compared to Llano, which was much less impressive at only 3GHz.

Yes, I believe AMD's top management is utterly incompetent and I'd never argue against that. My argument is that the products themselves are actually good products that tick all the right marketing boxes (ghz, cores), and they are actually selling well at retail level. I am convinced it's a mobo supply issue or a panic at AMD, either one of them would not surprise me in the slightest but a lack of demand on the product is not likely.

 

[Idontcare]

I agree, and tbh when I read about them cancelling wafers at first I just groaned because I knew they hadn't given Trinity enough time.

Trinity is selling because it's a 4.2 GHz quad core cpu with 7-series Radeon graphics. They didn't give it time compared to Llano, which was much less impressive at only 3GHz.

Yes, I believe AMD's top management is utterly incompetent and I'd never argue against that. My argument is that the products themselves are actually good products that tick all the right marketing boxes (ghz, cores), and they are actually selling well at retail level. I am convinced it's a mobo supply issue or a panic at AMD, either one of them would not surprise me in the slightest but a lack of demand on the product is not likely.

Well, when you put it that way, I can find no fault in your logic or your argument in general :thumbsup:

But damn, if AMD is fundamentally broken in that sense then they are truly doomed IMO because there is no way AMD can fire and replace enough people as needed to fundamentally alter the existing culture that would allow such gross incompetence to take root in the first place 🙁

 

[AtenRa]

Desktop Llano 2C
Q1 = 1.351.000
Q2 = 1.740.000
Q3 = 296.000 (Trinity launch)

Now see what happens with Trinity

Desktop Trinity 2C
Q1 = 0.000
Q2 = 87.000
Q3 = 445.000

WTF ??? Either they where production constrained or someone screwed up really bad in sales.

So a better product than Llano, a product that had good reviews and people endorsed it had more than half its sales cut down ???
Dont tell me that every OEM wanted a Quad Core and not a Dual core 😛

 

[krumme]

Desktop Llano 2C
Q1 = 1.351.000
Q2 = 1.740.000
Q3 = 296.000 (Trinity launch)

Now see what happens with Trinity

Desktop Trinity 2C
Q1 = 0.000
Q2 = 87.000
Q3 = 445.000

WTF ??? Either they where production constrained or someone screwed up really bad in sales.

So a better product than Llano, a product that had good reviews and people endorsed it had more than half its sales cut down ???
Dont tell me that every OEM wanted a Quad Core and not a Dual core 😛

No they were stopped for a good reason.
Both of the products is bad business.
And so is Richland, but we can asume it is so much improved it changes the threshold of profitability (well at least not pay not to produce it)

They question is, can Kaveri make like real money? It thats the case we are in for some very solid IPC improvement all over the solution and face a very attractive product. Lets hope so.

 

[Vesku]

Ever since Ruiz was given the reins AMD has been battling a serious infection of incompetence (not solely Ruiz either, but also having a board of directors that would let that guy run things). FX debacle really soured motherboard makers, imo, so now they have a supply chain issue with their decent products.

 

[NTMBK]

Desktop Llano 2C
Q1 = 1.351.000
Q2 = 1.740.000
Q3 = 296.000 (Trinity launch)

Now see what happens with Trinity

Desktop Trinity 2C
Q1 = 0.000
Q2 = 87.000
Q3 = 445.000

WTF ??? Either they where production constrained or someone screwed up really bad in sales.

So a better product than Llano, a product that had good reviews and people endorsed it had more than half its sales cut down ???
Dont tell me that every OEM wanted a Quad Core and not a Dual core 😛

Trinity 2C and 4C are the same die, so same cost to produce. If they are getting better yields (less chips need cores disabling) and there are enough people wanting to buy quad cores, then it's best that they sell as many quad cores as they can. This is why 2C Trinity is out with Richland, to be replaced by 4C Kabini. (...bringing us neatly back on topic 😉 )

 

[AtenRa]

Trinity 2C and 4C are the same die, so same cost to produce. If they are getting better yields (less chips need cores disabling) and there are enough people wanting to buy quad cores, then it's best that they sell as many quad cores as they can.

Im with ya, but they didnt

Desktop Llano 4C
Q1 = 1.544.000
Q2 = 1.592.000
Q3 = 296.000

Desktop Trinity 4C
Q1 = 0.000
Q2 = 174.000
Q3 = 1.022.000

Less overall volume than Quad Core Llanos of Q2 alone. Quad core Trinity is more popular than Quad Core Llano ever was and still they sold less.

This is why 2C Trinity is out with Richland, to be replaced by 4C Kabini. (...bringing us neatly back on topic 😉 )

I dont believe this will happen in Desktop but we'll have to wait and see.

 

[mrmt]

Less overall volume than Quad Core Llanos of Q2 alone. Quad core Trinity is more popular than Quad Core Llano ever was and still they sold less.

AMD isn't being able to replace Llano sales with 1:1 Trinity sales, and Bulldozer sales worse than 1:2 when compared to Phenom. AMD volumes didn't go even lower because of bobcat chips. Bobcat sells more units than the entire Bulldozer lineup and even on desktops Bobcat is beating Bulldozer and almost beating Trinity in units shipped, a move I suspect is cannibalizing the entire 2C lineup.

 

[Abwx]

Mubadala wouldnt mind pourring money to make it viable provided they
get most of the eventual future benefits and for that they need the lower
possible stock price so the bigger the stake they can take for peanuts
while reducing the other stakeholder shares to negligible value thanks
to such opportunistic capital dilutions , as the recent one.....

 

[Olikan]

Mubadala wouldnt mind pourring money to make it viable provided they
get most of the eventual future benefits and for that they need the lower
possible stock price so the bigger the stake they can take for peanuts
while reducing the other stakeholder shares to negligible value thanks
to such opportunistic capital dilutions , as the recent one.....

IMO, Mubadala will either make AMD dry, forcing them use bad agreements with GloFo, like the last one.....or they have other plans for them

i think the first one is more likely 😛

 

[AtenRa]

AMD isn't being able to replace Llano sales with 1:1 Trinity sales, and Bulldozer sales worse than 1:2 when compared to Phenom. AMD volumes didn't go even lower because of bobcat chips. Bobcat sells more units than the entire Bulldozer lineup and even on desktops Bobcat is beating Bulldozer and almost beating Trinity in units shipped, a move I suspect is cannibalizing the entire 2C lineup.

Bulldozer wasn't meant to be a high volume product, same as Intel's Socket 2011 CPUs, so compering BobCat to Bulldozer is irrelevant. We know they didnt replace Llano with Trinity 1:1, and since Trinity is a better product we are trying to find why.