Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

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DisEnchantment

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With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits
Or Phoronix

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it :grimacing:

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.

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Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

 
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Joe NYC

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More revenue is not more profit.

You have a slightly unhealthy obsession with AMD flooding the market and forcing a price war which is silly given they want neither.

It's because once you break out of the 20% market share prison, you can have both the volume and ASPs.

Hopefully, we will see this experiment play out in server market in next year or two...
 

adroc_thurston

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Joe NYC

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They did, before PCs collapsed.

lol no, that's asking for a price war.

Maybe you don't even have to go ahead with a price war but show yourself to be crazy enough to do it. Something Trump would do.

If you act too rational, like Lisa / AMD do, it's something to exploit. Just gaming theory. If you know your opponent will not react to your provocation, you can provoke twice as hard, and take advantage of the situation to the Max.

That's how AMD lost 66% of its client business. Clearly a bad strategy.

They're charging ever-increasing money on each new generation.

AMD is entering new segments too. Sienna in a big way.

And AM5 micro servers as well, although, AMD has showed a lot of its typical negligence in trying to exploit a market segment to maximize product volumes...

AMD has great solution for AM5 micro servers, but leaves Intel all the market, letting Intel have high ASPs selling garbage...
 

Joe NYC

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They lost it because shipping at Intel margin is bad.
That's it.

Imagine how much worse it would cost Intel if AMD reciprocated. Intel would have to go to bond market to borrow more money for this.

Just threatening to go forward with price war would make Intel back away, and AMD would only match Intel's 33% decline in revenue, instead of suffering 66% decline.

Meme market.

The market that Intel serves with Xeon-D? I wonder, if by unit, it is not greater than AMD server market.

AMD could wipe out Xeon-D, grab all this market with high ASP Zeon 4 desktop parts. Except, AMD does not care to even compete.

I noticed some unconventional ISPs / cloud providers offer these AM5 microservers (in Europe). But they are probably just figuring all this on their own, without any help / support from AMD.

It's Siena and is kinda sorta a 2p Snowy Owl replacement.

Yeah, I was confusing it with the Toyota.

Well, it could be something, if AMD does not "forget" to sell the Siena servers, after spending the R+D on them.
 
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branch_suggestion

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Those are naked shader engines backed by L2.
Good to have that cleared up, explains along with the big CU count why each SE is now massive.
Question now is L2 used to be a global cache, so now is it private to each SED or can it be used across say, all SED's on an AID? To hide the latency penalty the L2 per SE must be larger than RDNA3 I would presume.
 

adroc_thurston

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Intel would have to go to bond market to borrow more money for this.
Oh they have a lot of fat to trim still.
The market that Intel serves with Xeon-D?
Xeon-D basically unexisted itself eons ago.
The primary customer was facebook and they moved off it quite some time back.
I noticed some unconventional ISPs / cloud providers offer these AM5 microservers (in Europe)
Chump change revenue.
so now is it private to each SED
Yes, same rules as MI300 apply.
Your only shared cache is MALL and it is your coherence point.
To hide the latency penalty the L2 per SE must be larger than RDNA3 I would presume.
Yea up to 3 SA per SE now.
 
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branch_suggestion

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Yes, same rules as MI300 apply.
Your only shared cache is MALL and it is your coherence point.

Yea up to 3 SA per SE now.
So in essence Naffziger is turning the GPU into a massive highly parallel cluster of CCD's, each SE is like a CPU core and the AID acts as the big unified LLC/memory stick, and now you can connect multiple of them together coherently. I think that is the gist of it? And it is nice to unload the stuff that is only needed on client once to a seperate chiplet, though the design maybe allows 2 MID's for pro cards.
Since this design is now offloaded to RDNA5 which probably has some additional tweaks, we might see the next evolution with MI400 first.
 
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Joe NYC

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Chump change revenue.
AM5 micro-servers?

I believe there is some market (in the cloud) where you rent the entire server for reasonable price. No sharing, no VMs, you have the whole thing, all of its bandwidth etc.

Some companies are responding by offering these AM5 Microservers.

I wish AMD would fully wake up to this opportunity. AMD could sell a lot of low power 7950, 7900 into this market at very nice ASPs. Higher than desktop ASPs.

Check out this video by Patrick Kennedy. It's a shame that 5 months has passed, and AMD is still asleep on this opportunity that is in its lap:

 

adroc_thurston

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Naffziger
Not him, he's a higher-level dude.
each SE is like a CPU core
No.
It's still a GPU.
and the AID acts as the big unified LLC/memory stick
Same as yes, MI300.
though the design maybe allows 2 MID's for pro cards.
Wow. smart.
we might see the next evolution with MI400 first.
Yea tiled I/O all the way babay.
I believe there is some market (in the cloud) where you rent the entire server for reasonable price. No sharing, no VMs, you have the whole thing, all of its bandwidth etc.
Just rent a bare metal instance.
AM5 micro-servers?
Beyond meme.
The bulk of cloud shipments this year is Genoa and next year Turin-Dense.
 

branch_suggestion

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Not him, he's a higher-level dude.
Yeah, Linkedin networking is not my forte.
No.

It's still a GPU.
I could've phrased it better, obviously it is a GPU, just in the context of comparing the overall architecture layout to a Zen CCD, just built in a very different way as a client GPU necessitates. I mean what is being done here to a GPU does parallel what Zen has done with CPU's. We may see some convergence with Venice in regards to packaging for further improvements.
Same as yes, MI300.

Yea tiled I/O all the way babay.
Yeah, disaggregating all the things is very much the MO, as hinted by that one presentation where they talk about just how far you can split a chip into smaller bits.

I'm well aware that you know all this and can point out the dumb things, I just like talking about this stuff.
 

branch_suggestion

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duh; that was kinda inevitable but you can only imagine Venice pricing now.
Yes, Imagine being a rival of AMD knowing for about a decade that they are planning such complex parts and your best response is 2 monolithic chips on 2 separate packages on a PCB glued together with tech AMD has had since Rome.
I mean even Intel saw it coming better, and to NV, layering levels of switches to pretend you have one giant coherent device is not going to cut it. But that is what happens when you have a running joke of a packaging team.
 

Timorous

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Haha, whenever you see the potential for increased pricing, I see potential for volume and market share gains.

AMD have tried market share plays before. They never get enough market share to offset the reduced margins and end up sacrificing R&D which holds them back long term.

Keep in mind that along with more market share comes larger business areas to support that and growing too fast can be a huge problem.

So AMD are being selective, It makes sense and allows them to grow at a sustainable pace.
 
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Joe NYC

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AMD have tried market share plays before. They never get enough market share to offset the reduced margins and end up sacrificing R&D which holds them back long term.

Keep in mind that along with more market share comes larger business areas to support that and growing too fast can be a huge problem.

AMD just lost 66% if the client business, about 10% of their server business since Q4. So growing too fast is the last of their worries.

Also, as far as fixed upfront costs of creating a product and a tiny additional variable cost to provide support for the product and increase margins by selling every additional product as the R+D is spread over larger number of products - it is clear how the economics plays out.

The problem is that AMD just doesn't hire the right "talent" for sales, and "sales" is so far down the list of priorities that it just does not get done.

So AMD are being selective, It makes sense and allows them to grow at a sustainable pace.

AMD is shrinking. AMD could instantly double its client sales and still be below its peak sales.

1692169809838.png

Notice the black and the yellow lines representing data center and client revenue.

All while Intel is selling inferior chips, included slow and buggy Ice Lake, by bucket load. If you consider there are orders in place for millions more Ice Lake, you may start to realize that this industry, like many others, is a laughing stock and corrupt.

AMD could do something to change it, to relentlessly fight against this, but doesn't.

I would go as far as call out companies ordering Ice Lake. Either directly or just leak the info into the right channels.

If somebody is corrupt and depriving the market of the ability to buy a better product, the least AMD can do is to call them out. Name the company, name the IT directors, name the purchasing managers. These people deserve public shame, and the wrath of the shareholders of their companies, for ripping of their shareholders. Maybe taking bribes...

This whole "turn the other cheek" really irks me about today's AMD.
 
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Timorous

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AMD just lost 66% if the client business, about 10% of their server business since Q4. So growing too fast is the last of their worries.

Also, as far as fixed upfront costs of creating a product and a tiny additional variable cost to provide support for the product and increase margins by selling every additional product as the R+D is spread over larger number of products - it is clear how the economics plays out.

The problem is that AMD just doesn't hire the right "talent" for sales, and "sales" is so far down the list of priorities that it just does not get done.



AMD is shrinking. AMD could instantly double its client sales and still be below its peak sales.

View attachment 84479

Notice the black and the yellow lines representing data center and client revenue.

All while Intel is selling inferior chips, included slow and buggy Ice Lake, by bucket load. If you consider there are orders in place for millions more Ice Lake, you may start to realize that this industry, like many others, is a laughing stock and corrupt.

AMD could do something to change it, to relentlessly fight against this, but doesn't.

I would go as far as call out companies ordering Ice Lake. Either directly or just leak the info into the right channels.

If somebody is corrupt and depriving the market of the ability to buy a better product, the least AMD can do is to call them out. Name the company, name the IT directors, name the purchasing managers. These people deserve public shame, and the wrath of the shareholders of their companies, for ripping of their shareholders. Maybe taking bribes...

This whole "turn the other cheek" really irks me about today's AMD.

None of that will do anything. If the massive TCO and perf/$ advantages AMD offer are not enough to sway some companies from Intel nothing will. It is not a fight AMD can win on pure economics so why even try?

Also if businesses want to saddle themselves with a higher TCO and lower performance part they will get out competed by those that go AMD, it just takes a while for those kinds of decisions to bite you.

Then there is timing of payments Vs timing of build for the super computers. Pretty sure AMD are getting the payment next quarter but they have been building the parts for a while which eats wafer supply possibly making it pretty hard to offer better prices without inducing a shortage.

So while in theory AMD could dump prices if they don't have the wafer supply to have sufficient product at that price point then they won't exactly sell many more products but will make a good chunk less in the process.

Also as down as Intel are they would win a price war at a cost and NV would dominate one. It is not something AMD can win in the long term because they still do not command enough of the market to make a volume play.

This is why I have consistently said AMD need 50% market share in most of the sectors to really be secure because if AMD were to miss and Intel were to hit one out of the park the market share AMD have gained over the last 5 or so years will disappear overnight. A surefire way to have a miss is to enter into a price war and then not have sufficient money to support the R&D. Pretty much the only sector AMD are secure in is console APUs. Every other one will get eaten up if Intel have anorher Conroe moment.

So no, your strategy would work to bolster revenue in the short term but divert too many resources from R&D to operations along with the massive headcount increase that would require in a short period which will mean hiring lower quality candidates and then it all spirals down. NV did not get into their position by price warring, they got there by steady consistent execution over decades. The last fail hardware they released was probably the GTX 480 and even that fail was still the fastest, it just came with a power cost and had the George foreman grill memes. Since then every arch has been a hit, NV are a reliable execution machine and that is what AMD need to do and really have done on the CPU side since Zen. Not so much on the GPU side but even then they are executing well on the HPC side it is just consumer is a bit more up and down.
 
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Joe NYC

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None of that will do anything. If the massive TCO and perf/$ advantages AMD offer are not enough to sway some companies from Intel nothing will. It is not a fight AMD can win on pure economics so why even try?

Also if businesses want to saddle themselves with a higher TCO and lower performance part they will get out competed by those that go AMD, it just takes a while for those kinds of decisions to bite you.

Then there is timing of payments Vs timing of build for the super computers. Pretty sure AMD are getting the payment next quarter but they have been building the parts for a while which eats wafer supply possibly making it pretty hard to offer better prices without inducing a shortage.

So while in theory AMD could dump prices if they don't have the wafer supply to have sufficient product at that price point then they won't exactly sell many more products but will make a good chunk less in the process.

Also as down as Intel are they would win a price war at a cost and NV would dominate one. It is not something AMD can win in the long term because they still do not command enough of the market to make a volume play.

When AMD lost 66% of sales, AMD had the opposite problem. Chips sitting in inventory. Not a problem delivering volume of chips.

And, before the bottom fell from below the market (and Intel aggravated it by anti-competitive shenanigans), AMD had a plan to grow the volume of wafers from TSMC.

So when AMD client sales were 2.1 billion, it was positioning itself to grow to 2.5 billion. And instead of selling 2.5 billion, AMD sold ~700 million.

If anything, AMD had to pay penalties, or negotiate a deferral, order cancellations with TSMC to go from planned 2.5 billion down to actual ~700 million.

BTW, if AMD did not have super profitable Xilinx and X-Box divisions, that anticompetitive blitzkrieg Intel executed on AMD would have left the old AMD without Xilinx on the verge of bankruptcy, laying off staff, closing offices.



This is why I have consistently said AMD need 50% market share in most of the sectors to really be secure because if AMD were to miss and Intel were to hit one out of the park the market share AMD have gained over the last 5 or so years will disappear overnight. A surefire way to have a miss is to enter into a price war and then not have sufficient money to support the R&D. Pretty much the only sector AMD are secure in is console APUs. Every other one will get eaten up if Intel have anorher Conroe moment.

Yup. And the paradoxical thing is that AMD let Intel get away with it when AMD is in far better financial position and Intel was in its weakest position. Just threatening to match Intel prices and tactics would send shivers down Pat's spine and he would back off.

It's like AMD is playing checkers, Pat playing chess.
Or Pat being dealt a weak hand in card game and winning decisively.

This industry seems almost hopeless if Intel is getting away with this, if AMD is losing market share while having much stronger products. And lower costs.

The underutilized Intel Fabs are an albatross weighing on Intel. And instead of emptying them further, AMD filled them up, lowering Inte's underutilization charges.

It's almost like a Chips Act by AMD, supporting Intel fabs...

So no, your strategy would work to bolster revenue in the short term but divert too many resources from R&D to operations along with the massive headcount increase that would require in a short period which will mean hiring lower quality candidates and then it all spirals down. NV did not get into their position by price warring, they got there by steady consistent execution over decades. The last fail hardware they released was probably the GTX 480 and even that fail was still the fastest, it just came with a power cost and had the George foreman grill memes. Since then every arch has been a hit, NV are a reliable execution machine and that is what AMD need to do and really have done on the CPU side since Zen. Not so much on the GPU side but even then they are executing well on the HPC side it is just consumer is a bit more up and down.

I don't think price war is the only weapon. There are other strategies. Hire an army of sales people. Engage in marketing / advertising campaigns. Support the people who want to buy and use your products. Big and small. Small could become big - as could happen with AM5 micro servers, for example, if AMD gave it some support.

To get a picture of AMD's lack of effort, AMD's own Zen 4 drivers have no support for Windows Server. I fiddled with it and got the drivers to load. So it is bare minimum that AMD is not doing to try to sell good chips, while Intel is doing everything to sell mediocre chips.

I am not complaining about AMD market share in GPU, because it is what it is as a result of mixed level of execution.

CPU is a different story. AMD had consistent execution, has been 50:50 plus / minus vs. Intel in desirability and performance of the products. Even more consistent than Intel.

And all that brought AMD is 1:3 disadvantage in unit sold, and from that pathetic state, a further 66% drop in revenue.

Intel is seen as essential, and AMD allows itself to be seen as non-essential vendor in client PC hardware. This gives Intel power over OEMs, to strong arm them into compliance. This is something AMD needs to break to be viable in client PCs.

And it is one of the few things @adroc_thurston is completely wrong about. ;)
 
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Yup. And the paradoxical thing is that AMD let Intel get away with it when AMD is in far better financial position and Intel was in its weakest position. Just threatening to match Intel prices and tactics would send shivers down Pat's spine and he would back off.

It's like AMD is playing checkers, Pat playing chess.
Or Pat being dealt a weak hand in card game and winning decisively.

This industry seems almost hopeless if Intel is getting away with this, if AMD is losing market share while having much stronger products. And lower costs.

The underutilized Intel Fabs are an albatross weighing on Intel. And instead of emptying them further, AMD filled them up, lowering Inte's underutilization charges.

It's almost like a Chips Act by AMD, supporting Intel fabs...

I don't think price war is the only weapon. There are other strategies. Hire an army of sales people. Engage in marketing / advertising campaigns. Support the people who want to buy and use your products. Big and small. Small could become big - as could happen with AM5 micro servers, for example, if AMD gave it some support.

To get a picture of AMD's lack of effort, AMD's own Zen 4 drivers have no support for Windows Server. I fiddled with it and got the drivers to load. So it is bare minimum that AMD is not doing to try to sell good chips, while Intel is doing everything to sell mediocre chips.
I share your sentiments. All attempts to highlight AMD's performance advantage are usually met with accusations of fanboyism. I bet only 5% of Intel users jumped ship to AMD with Zen 3 or 4. But if Intel were to come up with something better than Zen 5, a lot more AMD users would convert to Intel coz their main interest was better performance rather than supporting AMD. Maybe it's the name? They could try Rytech for Ryzen Technologies...
 

adroc_thurston

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Intel is seen as essential, and AMD allows itself to be seen as non-essential vendor in client PC hardware. This gives Intel power over OEMs, to strong arm them into compliance. This is something AMD needs to break to be viable in client PCs.
PC is a bad market to be in.
 
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Timorous

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When AMD lost 66% of sales, AMD had the opposite problem. Chips sitting in inventory. Not a problem delivering volume of chips.

The issue AMD had was that even if they halved the price of the chips the cost of the ram and motherboards made switching to AM5 at that time rather expensive. It was the platform cost that was prohibitive and going dirt cheap on pricing wouldn't have changed that by enough.

In addition that kind of play makes AMD look like the value player which means it is always expected that AMD is cheaper even with the better product and AMD don't want to end up in that situation again. Look at Radeon Vs Nvidia, even before stuff like DLSS and Ray Tracing were a thing it was often thought that AMD cards are there to lower NVs price. AMD even went after the small die value play with 4000 and 5000 series, it failed because while they did grab some market share it wasn't enough to make the low margins work and NV responded with a $200 price cut on their GTX 280.

If the 7900XTX launched at $600 for example then NV would cut the cheaper to manufacture 4080 to $800 and everybody would still buy the NV card.

If AMD are going to do deals and offer cheaper parts it will be to OEMs to get into desktop and laptop products, it won't be in the DIY space.