Discussion RDNA 5 / UDNA (CDNA Next) speculation

[Win2012R2]

Nope

You really think they will make a credible effort of next gen dedicated hardware box that will be competitive with PS6?

The way things go there will be more (free to Sony) exclusives on PlayStation, it simply won't make any commercial sense to release it on Xbox, especially with Series S aggro.

 

[SolidQ]

You really think they will make a credible effort of next gen dedicated hardware box that will be competitive with PS6?

they can do good hardware, but where is games? Console with zero exclusive games, doesn't make any sense

 

[Win2012R2]

they can do good hardware, but where is games? Console with zero exclusive games, doesn't make any sense

It's going to get worse for them - Xbox crowd is addicted to "pass" so they are not game BUYERS, their market share is at best 1/3 of PS, and fixed costs of publishing on any console are not small - so a lot of devs might just not bother and not publish on Xbox: do PS and PC releases, maybe even pocket some Sony marketing money for making it "exclusive" to PS, but I doubt Sony will have to pay a lot or to too many of developers to do it.

The Xbox jig is up. And it's a great thing - should be better focus on PC gamíng for Microsoft.

 

[adroc_thurston]

You really think they will make a credible effort of next gen dedicated hardware box that will be competitive with PS6

That's the easy part.

maybe even pocket some Sony marketing money for making it "exclusive" to PS

I'm sorry to disappoint you, but Sony isn't rich and no one's ever gonna sign up for the thing you just said after FF16 and FF7re both flopped.

 

[Win2012R2]

no one's ever gonna sign up for the thing you just said

HellDivers 2 did well, and Wukong also - they also had PC releases, but no Xbox until later.

More importantly - has any game flopped because it wasn't released on Xbox? Microsoft trained that crowd to get stuff "for free" on their "pass", a great way to undermine platform for 3rd party releases that actually cost money.

 

[adroc_thurston]

has any game flopped because it wasn't released on Xbox

Yes. Final Fantasy. Next.

Wukong also

Wukong saw PC success.
HD2 also very PC-centric.

 

[Win2012R2]

Yes. Final Fantasy. Next.

So they've misjudged what was their target market, it's on them.

With declining sales of Xbox in 2 years PS5 will probably have 75-80% market share for non-portable consoles, it's death to Xbox, Microsoft execs don't have appetite to go into new gen with previous gen so totally lost, at best they will make a "PC spec", call it ersatz-Xbox and be done with that.

 

[adroc_thurston]

So they've misjudged what was their target market, it's on them.

With declining sales of Xbox in 2 years PS5 will probably have 75-80% market share for non-portable consoles, it's death to Xbox, Microsoft execs don't have appetite to go into new gen with previous gen so totally lost, at best they will make a "PC spec", call it ersatz-Xbox and be done with that.

They're making the next Xbox just fine.
MS issues are down to no games and failure at marketing when there are games.
The new Indy game is a spiritual successor to Escape from the Butcher Bay and MS barely talked about it.

 

[SolidQ]

MS issues are down to no games and failure at marketing when there are games.

just make their games for 1 year exclusive for Xbox and people gonna buy Xbox.
New hardware is fine, but without games it's nothing, look how Nintendo Switch have crazy sales, because pure exclusives

 

[soresu]

Yes. Final Fantasy. Next.

FF games have become progressively less interesting since the PS2 generation.

IMHO the main reason they finally caved on FF7 remake is weak sales on modern FF games.

 

[Win2012R2]

people gonna buy Xbox

Nope, plus Microsoft can't afford to make even timed exclusive when 70% of the console market is PS5

 

[adroc_thurston]

just make their games for 1 year exclusive for Xbox and people gonna buy Xbox.

That's not the issue. They need to actually market them.

FF games have become progressively less interesting since the PS2 generation

Only the 13 trilogy was real snooze tbf.

 

[Shmee]

In general, I agree with the 2 year cadence

There are 3 reasons, why I am hopeful of a shorter cadence this time:

1. As it is AMD has no 4080 competitor. I find it untenable that there won't be a 4080 / 5070 ti competitor until 2027
2. There are already 3 products on 3nm: zen 5c server chip, instinct chips, strix halo. Should be easy to do a die shrink from 4nm to 3nm & also create a 5070 ti competitor for enthusiasts
3. Xbox next should be out soon

7900XTX competes with 4080/4080S. And though RTX 4090 is the fastest currently, in some games (such as COD) I have seen the 7900XTX actually pull ahead. Though in general it is meant to compete with 4080S now.

 

[darkswordsman17]

HellDivers 2 did well, and Wukong also - they also had PC releases, but no Xbox until later.

More importantly - has any game flopped because it wasn't released on Xbox? Microsoft trained that crowd to get stuff "for free" on their "pass", a great way to undermine platform for 3rd party releases that actually cost money.

You're missing things entirely, they're conditioning people to never own games and to be perpetually paying for them (see how they conditioned people to pay for online). Those subscriptions are worth more than the games, and its not even the games that Microsoft is selling, its access to your eyeballs (ads, etc) and data (which will become worth even more as they start leveraging that data paired with AI). Don't be surprised if Microsoft starts partnering with Sony (rumors about Microsoft being involved in that Valve/Lenovo SteamOS version of the Legion Go, but also Microsoft no longer caring and porting their stuff to iOS and Android, and other - heck Win11 includes a Linux distro embedded so that you can utilize Linux commands). I think they already have a deal for Microsoft to handle Sony's GamePass like service.

 

[Win2012R2]

Those subscriptions are worth more than the games

No, game pass does not work financially, it's the reason they are now forced to release their games to PS5 now.

 

[marees]

No, game pass does not work financially, it's the reason they are now forced to release their games to PS5 now.

My guess is that Microsoft makes one more gen of first party hardware. After that they just Outsource the xbox o/s to 3rd party vendors such as ASUS, MSI, Lenovo etc.

Given that we can expect one more gen of xbox, it has to be on RDNA 5 / UDNA etc.

Xbox has a new "VP of next-gen" and they'll be at CES alongside Lenovo ... but what could it mean for Xbox's future?

Lenovo's gaming handheld presentation is being held at CES 2025 on January 7, and Xbox's Jason Ronald will be in attendance.

www.windowscentral.com

Predicting the (actually very exciting) future of next gen Xbox hardware

An analyst recently said that next gen, only either Xbox or PlayStation will survive as a console manufacturer. Here's why that's silly.

www.windowscentral.com

 

[marees]

• UDNA Gaming GPU is tentatively scheduled for mass production in Q2 26.

via Chiphell Forums

AMD UDNA "Radeon" Gaming GPUs Rumored To Enter Mass Production In Q2 2026, Sony PS6 Also Expected To Utilize Next-Gen Architecture

AMD's UDNA architecture-based Radeon gaming GPUs will allegedly enter mass production in Q2 2026 & also be integrated into Sony's PS6.

wccftech.com

 

[Win2012R2]

My guess is that Microsoft makes one more gen of first party hardware

Here is a huge problem they have (and by extension Sony too), and that's totally ignoring current dire financial side of things that will only get worse (sales will continue to drop rapidly): if they were to make next gen then on what process?

If they target 2026 for early refresh then at that point TSMC's N2 will only start being used by Nvidia GPUs and other high end customers, way too expensive to even consider for consoles - not huge volumes either. So that leaves N3 - but can you build console much better (like at least x2) than PS5 Pro on that process? Seems doubtful - they will need bigger silicon budget for "AI" matrix stuff too, CPU cores will have to grow most likely as well in size and quantity (8 cores won't hack it).

If they target 2028 then by that point N2 is unlikely to be even half price - perhaps at that time we'll only get "consumer level" expensive GPUs from Nvidia. But even with N2 next gen GPU will be what, 70-80% quicker than PS5 Pro, would it really feel next gen? They'd have to have a LOT more RT hardware also because it would be totally stupid to have piss poor RT for consoles that supposed to last into 2030-s.

Intel A18 is a wild card in this but we will know next year what's the score is, but even if it's cheap and got volume it won't give that much more perf over N3.

The whole console jig is up - the only way forward is PC master race...

 

[jpiniero]

The rumors are for the PS6 being released in 2027. N3P/N3X is more likely but I suppose I could see the power savings of N2P being appealing.

 

[adroc_thurston]

but I suppose I could see the power savings of N2P being appealing

It's a poverty box, bleeding edge is out of question.

 

[jpiniero]

It's a poverty box, bleeding edge is out of question.

Both MS's console and the PS6 are not going to be cheap AND I'd expect die sizes to be smaller.

Really, I'd expect AMD's UDNA dGPU chips to be much smaller too unless they can get big ASP gains.

 

[adroc_thurston]

UDNA

No such thing.

to be much smaller too unless they can get big ASP gains.

Why would they be?
You need area to make GPUs work.

 

[Win2012R2]

The rumors are for the PS6 being released in 2027. N3P/N3X is more likely but I suppose I could see the power savings of N2P being appealing.

N2 is out of question for 2027, and on N3P they will get at best 50% quicker than PS5 Pro, hardly next gen.

It's game over and Microsoft should pivot to BYOGPU model - focus on PC being the best gaming platform and release own games to PS5 also, keep building maybe an overpriced Xbox controller and that's it, and let Sony worry about how they handle hardware cycle, they'll probably just extend it to 2030 and then maybe N2 will be reasonably priced and/or inflation will make $1000 console acceptable.

Let's not forget - they will need more vRAM too, at least doubling it, probably more actually with all those LLMs being big - more NAND is easier, make users buy their own overpriced upgrade.

 

[GTracing]

No such thing.

Why do you keep saying this? AMD says that they're unifying CDNA and RDNA, and they called the new architecture UDNA.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Why do you keep saying this?

Cuz it doesn't exist.

AMD says that they're unifying CDNA and RDNA, and they called the new architecture UDNA.

well Jack is wrong.