Discussion RDNA 5 / UDNA (CDNA Next) speculation

[marees]

What is the expectation on the memory situation?
When will it cool down?
Will lpddr5x & lpddr6 be affected?

When will RDNA 5 launch now
What will be the SKUs

Will it be something like this

1. 50xt 12gb (AT4 24 CU) — $300
2. 60 16gb (AT3 40? CU) — $400
3. 60xt 16gb/24gb/32gb (AT3 48 CU) — $500/$550/$600
4. 70 18gb (AT2 56/60 CU) — $650
5. 70xt 18gb/24gb (AT2 72 CU) — $700/$800
6. 80xt 24gb (AT0 128? CU) — $1200+
7. 90xt 36gb (AT0 144? CU) — $1500+

 

[jpiniero]

Will lpddr5x & lpddr6 be affected?

Def seems like it should.

I have a feeling that the LPDDR products will get cancelled, as well as any AT0 gaming products. Mainly due to the prices.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I have a feeling that the LPDDR products will get cancelled, as well as any AT0 gaming products. Mainly due to the prices.

not how any of that works

 

[jpiniero]

not how any of that works

You have to realize that AMD and nVidia are probally going to raise MSRP by $50 for every 8 GB very soon. Sales are gonna tank. AT0 is going to be too expensive to expect people who would buy AMD GPUs to buy it, regardless of performance. May as well turn any of the duds into AI cards.

Maybe you will get lucky that the AI bubble will burst by the time AMD has to commit to a plan for RDNA 5.

 

[adroc_thurston]

You have to realize that AMD and nVidia are probally going to raise MSRP by $50 for every 8 GB very soon

and

Sales are gonna tank.

they can just cut volumes and leverage the shortage

AT0 is going to be too expensive to expect people who would buy AMD GPUs to buy it, regardless of performance

does not matter.

Maybe you will get lucky that the AI bubble will burst by the time AMD has to commit to a plan for RDNA 5.

They commited to a plan 2 years ago.

 

[maddie]

and

they can just cut volumes and leverage the shortage

does not matter.

They commited to a plan 2 years ago.

You argue from a shareholder POV. I think its safe to say that most here, approach the DRAM crisis from a consumer/PC enthusiast angle.

With that said, it will impact sales significantly with consumers and smaller enterprises will suffering the most.

Regarding plans, and quoting an aphorism. "No plan survives contact with the enemy".

I've seen some claiming that a fall in sales will cause prices to retreat. Standard supply and demand thinking. This is wrong. The AI enterprises want much more RAM that the market can supply. A fall in consumer sales is exactly what they want. Barring a massive increase in production capacity, or a political intervention reacting to traditional profitable PC markets being disrupted, think employment, as an example. Alternately, seeing that a lot of US economic growth is being driven by AI and related CAPEX, the choices are quite stark.

 

[gdansk]

Maybe prices will be worse, maybe some SKUs for gamers will be taken out back. But there is good reason to have chips with flexible memory configuration taped out as planned. There will be one company that has the worst HBM. Yet all three have new facilities in construction now that plan to start production in 2026/2027.

 

[jpiniero]

re: PS6, I suppose they could go with 4 GB chips on a 160 bit bus and do partial clamshell. That would depend of course if RDNA5 supports that or even if there's any kind of cost savings. It'd be 8x4GB instead of 10x3GB.

Still feels like a bad idea.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I think its safe to say that most here, approach the DRAM crisis from a consumer/PC enthusiast angle

GPU product stacks are not built around commodity IC pricing in a DIY market.

I've seen some claiming that a fall in sales will cause prices to retreat. Standard supply and demand thinking. This is wrong. The AI enterprises want much more RAM that the market can supply. A fall in consumer sales is exactly what they want. Barring a massive increase in production capacity, or a political intervention reacting to traditional profitable PC markets being disrupted, think employment, as an example. Alternately, seeing that a lot of US economic growth is being driven by AI and related CAPEX, the choices are quite stark.

Oh you see that's the thing, consumer sales being strong are the problem.
DRAM vendors aren't bulking up on HBM capacity lmao, it's all DDR5 now.

 

[Thunder 57]

You argue from a shareholder POV. I think its safe to say that most here, approach the DRAM crisis from a consumer/PC enthusiast angle.

I don't see it that way. He is arguing from a realistic POV. As consumers we would all want more supply/cheaper prices but that isn't always possible.