The push towards RTRT or especially HWRT will change with the next console cycle. Not because RTRT drives graphics forward, which RTRT definitely will, but because it will change production pipelines of games.
No more or at least vastly reduced baking, shortened development cycles. RTRT is mainly a game changer for developers. Not for gamers. But we as gamers might get better or, to be more precisely, more consistent quality. Because HWRT gets rid of the biggest illumination flaws of raster approximations.
PS5 etc. as last-gen consoles feature HWRT in a good enough fashion to make that shift. You can see it live happening if looking at UE5 development processes. SW-Lumen got frozen since UE 5.4 or 5.5, no further development.
MegaLights should scale from PS5, Switch 2 etc. up to PS6 and eventually Highend-PC. Replacing SW and HW Lumen as it is available today. Read the MegaLights presentation of Epic at Siggraph 2025:
https://advances.realtimerendering.com/s2025/content/MegaLights_Stochastic_Direct_Lighting_2025.pdf
And MegaLights
must scale that widely. Why? Because you do not want to design a game with hundreds of light sources and then scale down to a PS5 without MegaLights. That will not work.
HWRT together with a very scalable RTGI solution like MegaLights with virtually no limits on light source count will be the future. Starting with PS6 and Xbox-Next release. Main reason: Game development.
In that regard, RTXDI from Nvidia based on ReSTIR is conceptually the very same thing as MegaLights. Just geared towards the upper end of the quality spectrum (and HW requirements).
Regarding PC costumers, HWRT or RTRT will not really drive buying decisions too much, because the hardware is already here today. It is more about general performance of your card.
RDNA4 supports good HWRT and Nvidia cards since ages (if featuring enough VRAM). I expect the gap to be closing even further with RDNA5.
And when the next console cycle begins, not too many PC users will own a card with bad RT acceleration (Nvidias market share is too big to be otherwise).
RDNA2 and RDNA3 cards might struggle, I don't know. But if techniques like MegaLights run on a PS5, it should also run on a 6700XT at similar quality settings.