RCP poll average: Trump passes Hillary

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feralkid

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,482
4,552
136
buckshot24 said:
Maybe you missed this from your source?

"In recent elections, the Democratic candidate has typically won the voters with postgraduate degrees by a significant margin, but voters with college degrees, but not postgraduate degrees, have been more evenly divided. On the other hand, voters with more limited educations have tended to vote Democratic."

http://politicsthatwork.com/graphs/trump-clinton-education-level
Click to expand...
Nice cherry picking of a statement that was based on PREVIOUS elections, NOT the current data.


And on the very next page, based on CURRENT data:

In every income bracket, the more educated a person is, the more likely it is that they will vote Democratic.
 
buckshot24

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
feralkid said:
Nice cherry picking of a statement that was based on PREVIOUS elections, NOT the current data.


And on the very next page, based on CURRENT data:

In every income bracket, the more educated a person is, the more likely it is that they will vote Democratic.
Click to expand...
The Reuters poll, which isn't from January, indicates that Hillary has a lead with the less than HS crowd. The "CURRENT" data is nearly 6 months old as well.

So we have historical data that agrees with me, and we have a current (not half a year old) poll that agrees with me.

We have a problem here.
 
feralkid

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,482
4,552
136
buckshot24 said:
The Reuters poll, which isn't from January, indicates that Hillary has a lead with the less than HS crowd. The "CURRENT" data is nearly 6 months old as well.

So we have historical data that agrees with me, and we have a current (not half a year old) poll that agrees with me.

We have a problem here.
Click to expand...

You do, it's called reading comprehension.
 
Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
alien42 said:
well, so much for that lead Trump had for the blink of an eye. not only has Hillary taken the lead, but Trump's support is going down quickly...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
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Fox News and Rasmussen, both R leaning pollsters, have Clinton up +3 and +4 respectively. More remarkable is that Trump seems to be firmly below 40%.

Thread marked for ownage of the year. I think this will be a close race, but on the off chance it is a blow out...
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,597
29,231
146
Dang, even the unimpeachable Rasmussen poll has Clinton above Trump, and just outside of the MoE.

:hmm:
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,597
29,231
146
Blackjack200 said:
Fox News and Rasmussen, both R leaning pollsters, have Clinton up +3 and +4 respectively. More remarkable is that Trump seems to be firmly below 40%.

Thread marked for ownage of the year. I think this will be a close race, but on the off chance it is a blow out...
Click to expand...

My prediction is that it will be a close race up until the slaughter at the EC.

So, the perception of a close race up until it isn't.
 
Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
Sheik Yerbouti said:
OUCH! That's gonna sting, right speedy, lk, buckshat, et al??
Click to expand...

The latest polls are not capturing the entire Curiel episode, they're not capturing Clinton's victory, and they're not capturing Obama's (or Warren's) endorsement.

Again, at the end of the day I think it will be close, but it would still be fun to see Clinton open up another 10 point lead. :)
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,063
48,073
136
zinfamous said:
My prediction is that it will be a close race up until the slaughter at the EC.

So, the perception of a close race up until it isn't.
Click to expand...

I think the results could be within 5 points or so if current dynamics hold. 5 points for a modern presidential race isn't very close at all though.
 
Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
zinfamous said:
My prediction is that it will be a close race up until the slaughter at the EC.

So, the perception of a close race up until it isn't.
Click to expand...

fskimospy said:
I think the results could be within 5 points or so if current dynamics hold. 5 points for a modern presidential race isn't very close at all though.
Click to expand...

I think you guys are forgetting how polarized this country is. I think there are a lot of people disgusted with Trump that will end up voting for him in November.

I would love to be wrong though. Would absolutely love to see him get obliterated. Then he gets to be a punch line for the rest of his life.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,597
29,231
146
Blackjack200 said:
I think you guys are forgetting how polarized this country is. I think there are a lot of people disgusted with Trump that will end up voting for him in November.

I would love to be wrong though. Would absolutely love to see him get obliterated. Then he gets to be a punch line for the rest of his life.
Click to expand...

I agree and am not discounting that--I just don't think this will be reflected in how the EC turns out.

It will be contentious for many months after that. You can expect dozens of lawsuits issued from Trump's tiny hands after November.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,063
48,073
136
Blackjack200 said:
I think you guys are forgetting how polarized this country is. I think there are a lot of people disgusted with Trump that will end up voting for him in November.

I would love to be wrong though. Would absolutely love to see him get obliterated. Then he gets to be a punch line for the rest of his life.
Click to expand...

I don't think I'm forgetting polarization. Obama won in 2012 by about 4 points and by 7 or so in 2008. Hillary is no Obama, but Trump at least so far appears to be a total garbage fire. I don't think 5 points is out of the question.
 
Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
zinfamous said:
I agree and am not discounting that--I just don't think this will be reflected in how the EC turns out.
Click to expand...

Just looked back at '08 and Obama beat McMaveric by 7.2%, and it's not like the country's gotten any whiter since then. I heard states like Georgia and Utah are going to be in play. It won't be Reagan '84, but it could be better than '08. That would definitely be fun.
 
E

Exophase

Diamond Member
Apr 19, 2012
4,439
9
81
I think we will see significantly higher third party voting than usual this year. Possibly > 10% of the vote total.
 
Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
fskimospy said:
I don't think I'm forgetting polarization. Obama won in 2012 by about 4 points and by 7 or so in 2008. Hillary is no Obama, but Trump at least so far appears to be a total garbage fire. I don't think 5 points is out of the question.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I forgot how much Obama won by, for some reason I was thinking the pop. vote was closer.
 
buckshot24

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
Blackjack200 said:
Just looked back at '08 and Obama beat McMaveric by 7.2%, and it's not like the country's gotten any whiter since then. I heard states like Georgia and Utah are going to be in play. It won't be Reagan '84, but it could be better than '08. That would definitely be fun.
Click to expand...
Long race and Hillary still needs to get out of the FBI primary.

Obama was a special kind of candidate that people liked on a personal level more so than Hillary. Hillary is no Obama.
 
Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
buckshot24 said:
Long race and Hillary still needs to get out of the FBI primary.

Obama was a special kind of candidate that people liked on a personal level more so than Hillary. Hillary is no Obama.
Click to expand...

I'll agree, but people also hate Trump a lot more than they hated McCain.

Did you really just post that FBI shit after calling me a hack in another thread? Priceless.
 
zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,597
29,231
146
Sheik Yerbouti said:
he is the penultimate hack, ironic as fuck when he calls others hacks.
Click to expand...

an entity like buckshot is created only when the universe has reached peak irony levels.

That excess irony quotient is automatically shat out into the form of a singular entity--buckshot, for example--such that the GLUM (General Universal Logic Meter) can maintain its natural balance.
 
Subyman

Subyman

Moderator <br> VC&G Forum
Mar 18, 2005
7,876
32
86
Subyman said:
The media wants a very close race. I'm not sure Trump can survive his own hubris for 6 more months.
Click to expand...

Only took about a week after posting this for Trump to trip over his massive dick. First of many IMO. One thing Hillary has over Trump is self control.
 
hal2kilo

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,442
10,333
136
Subyman said:
Only took about a week after posting this for Trump to trip over his massive dick. First of many IMO. One thing Hillary has over Trump is self control.
Click to expand...

More importantly, supposedly one of the big reasons they like Trump is that he's going tear Hillary apart. So far, response to the "foreign policy" speech, essentially nothing except a "boy she's terrible" type response. Nothing point by point. All this waste of time attacking the judge, he has squandered the time he's had getting the nomination weeks ahead.
Other than tweets, nothing.

He hasn't even had a Trump pep rally since to go after her.
He doesn't seem to be working well with the RNC even. He apparently does not work well with others.

The only surrogate that's even begun show up is Christy.
 
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