Rasmussen poll 5/2: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%

[Slew Foot]

Too earlier to pay too much attention to polls IMO; they haven't really begun to campaign against other yet for one thing.

Plus, the FBI might be releasing its own 'poll'.

Fern

Far too early for any meaningful polling to take place. Im sure the Dems/Clinton will squash any FBI intervention though. Maybe an inadvertent suicide or something.

 

[fskimospy]

It's 6 months until the November election and our resident "experts" already have the outcome all figured out. lol

A well reasoned critique as always, lol.

Can you enlighten us about how we should view the current state of the election and what can be inferred from the information available?

 

[zinfamous]

Guise, hao due poalz werk?

well you are the expert, as you keep picking some out and tout their absolute certainty.

Please, continue to inform us.

 

[SP33Demon]

well you are the expert, as you keep picking some out and tout their absolute certainty.

Please, continue to inform us.

Aw, is that all you got? We need more sig worthy material, zin. I am disappoint

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

A well reasoned critique as always, lol.

Can you enlighten us about how we should view the current state of the election and what can be inferred from the information available?

Six months is a long time...anything can happen. Is my point really that difficult for you to understand? Or are you having trouble coping with an opinion that deviates from your "well reasoned critique"? lol

 

[fskimospy]

Six months is a long time...anything can happen. Is my point really that difficult for you to understand? Or are you having trouble coping with an opinion that deviates from your "well reasoned critique"? lol

Well then you're going after a straw man unless you didn't include me as one of your passive-aggressive "experts".

Of course anything CAN happen in six months, but that doesn't mean we can't look at the current numbers and make an inference on the PROBABLE outcome based on current polling and historical outcomes. The probable outcome is that Trump loses. If you want to say that such probabilistic statements are wrong or unfounded, feel free to dispute them. If you don't want to say that, what were you saying?

 

[Jhhnn]

Too early to pay too much attention to polls IMO; they haven't really begun to campaign against other yet for one thing.

Plus, the FBI might be releasing its own 'poll'.

Fern

I wouldn't count on the Feebs at this point. Clinton being hit by a meteorite seems more likely, all things considered.

 

[Exophase]

No, I'm not dumb enough to bet 1k on a coin flip. Why don't you do it just for fun and show us all how smart you are? lol

If you really think it's like a coin flip you should place a bet on a gambling site, they're offering much worse odds than that for Trump (and hence a much better payout)

I'm almost tempted to throw down some money on Hillary just so I can feel better about her inevitable victory.

 

[dullard]

Far too early for any meaningful polling to take place.

Six months is a long time...anything can happen.

Too early to pay too much attention to polls IMO; they haven't really begun to campaign against other yet for one thing.

While things can change from this point out, they actually need a reason to change. Polls in April are usually pretty accurate as Eskimospy showed earlier. Some curveball can change it, but unless that happens, these polls are actually quite meaningful.

 

[SP33Demon]

Clinton primary votes 12.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Trump primary votes 10.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html

Nobody apparently likes Clinton other than 12 million people.

And I hope you realize that virtually all democrats want to run against Trump and they are going to the primaries in droves to get Trump on the ballot. Then they'll switch back in the actual election. Kasich (before any negative press) is destroying Clinton in the polls. Clinton is destroying Trump. Democrats are therefore voting for Trump strategically for the primary only.

Finally, in the "you" part of your post, you must be referring to the wrong person. I'm no democrat. I'd rather vote democrat than republican by far. But I'm certainly no democrat.

2-5 candidates vs 2, learn to math. If you really want to compare, look at total votes cast for Repubs vs Dems. If you think Trump isn't going to unify the party against a horrible candidate like hillary then you're deluded.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ries_versus_caucuses_the_score_so_far_in_2016

Repubs have 4 million more, 22 to 18 mil. womp womp

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Well then you're going after a straw man unless you didn't include me as one of your passive-aggressive "experts".

Of course anything CAN happen in six months, but that doesn't mean we can't look at the current numbers and make an inference on the PROBABLE outcome based on current polling and historical outcomes. The probable outcome is that Trump loses. If you want to say that such probabilistic statements are wrong or unfounded, feel free to dispute them. If you don't want to say that, what were you saying?

I'm saying "Six months is a long time...anything can happen." You sir are a piece of work! Hemorrhoids acting up?

 

[dullard]

2-5 candidates vs 2, learn to math. If you really want to compare, look at total votes cast for Repubs vs Dems. If you think Trump isn't going to unify the party against a horrible candidate like hillary then you're deluded.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ries_versus_caucuses_the_score_so_far_in_2016

Repubs have 4 million more, 22 to 18 mil. womp womp

Except for the Dems voting for Trump to get to run against him part that you forgot about.

 

[fskimospy]

2-5 candidates vs 2, learn to math. If you really want to compare, look at total votes cast for Repubs vs Dems. If you think Trump isn't going to unify the party against a horrible candidate like hillary then you're deluded.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ries_versus_caucuses_the_score_so_far_in_2016

Repubs have 4 million more, 22 to 18 mil. womp womp

Then go look at research that shows that primary turnout has basically no correlation with general election victory.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

So not only is your metric stupid, but Clinton is beating Trump in it too. How many womps does that rate? Lol.

 

[fskimospy]

I'm saying "Six months is a long time...anything can happen." You sir are a piece of work! Hemorrhoids acting up?

lol. "Who, me?" strikes again!

 

[Fern]

While things can change from this point out, they actually need a reason to change. Polls in April are usually pretty accurate as Eskimospy showed earlier. Some curveball can change it, but unless that happens, these polls are actually quite meaningful.

How many "curveballs" you guys need to see this year to realize this isn't a normal election?

And I still think it's too early if only because the Trump vs Hillary campaigning hasn't started yet.

Fern

 

[Indus]

Trump rhetoric driving immigrants to become citizens

MIAMI — On a recent Saturday morning in South Florida, 50-year-old Edgar Ospina stood in a long line of immigrants to take the first step to become an American.

Ospina has spent almost half his life in the U.S. after emigrating from his native Colombia, becoming eligible for citizenship in 1990. But with Donald Trump becoming a more likely presidential nominee by the day, Ospina decided to wait no more, rushing the paperwork required to become a citizen.

“Trump is dividing us as a country,” said Ospina, owner of a small flooring and kitchen remodeling company. “He’s so negative about immigrants. We’ve got to speak up.”

Nationwide, immigrants like Ospina are among tens of thousands applying for naturalization in a year when immigration has taken center stage in the presidential campaign, especially in the race for the Republican nomination.

Trump, the GOP front-runner, has pledged to deport the estimated 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally. He’s also vowed to bar Muslims from entering the country and threatened to cut off remittances that Mexican immigrants in the U.S. send back home. And he’s called for building a border wall — among other proposals to deal with unlawful immigration, saying the federal government has failed to protect the border from people and drugs illegally entering the country.

That rhetoric, immigrant advocates and lawmakers say, is driving many foreign-born residents to seek citizenship.

“There is fear of a Trump presidency,” said Maria Ponce of iAmerica Action, a Washington-based immigrant rights group that is teaming up with other organizations to help those seeking citizenship — part of a national campaign called “Stand Up To Hate.” They’ve sponsored naturalization workshops from Washington state to Nebraska and Massachusetts.

Nationwide, naturalization applications are up 14 percent in the last six months of 2015 compared with the same period in 2014, according to the government.

And the pool of future U.S. citizens is large. Nearly 9 million legal permanent residents, or green-card holders, are eligible to become Americans. Of those, about 4 million are Hispanic.

Rep. Luis Gutiérrez, D-Ill., was featured in a public service announcement encouraging immigrants to become citizens so they can vote in November. He mocked Trump’s slogan, suggesting it was really: “Make America Hate Again.”

“We’ve seen it in the past and we are seeing it again many times over this year,” he said. “When immigrant communities feel they are under attack they react with a large number of eligible immigrants becoming citizens and a large number of eligible citizens becoming voters.”

Erica Bernal of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials said the tenor of the presidential campaign is galvanizing Latino immigrants. She said today’s movement is reminiscent of the 1990s when Latinos in California rose up against Proposition 187, which sought to deny government services to those in the state illegally. The courts overturned it.

Her group and several local ones in Los Angeles recently launched a regional campaign to encourage Latino immigrants to become citizens. About 775,000 legal immigrants in the L.A. area are eligible for citizenship.

To qualify, immigrants must have been in the country five years, complete a 21-page application, get fingerprinted, pass a civics and English exam and pay almost $700 in fees.

Ivan Parro, citizenship coordinator with the Florida Immigrant Coalition said immigrants laugh when he asks why they want to become Americans.

“‘You know why,’ they say, ‘I want to vote against racism and hate,'” said Parro.

He says immigrants this year are “desperate to be part of the political process.”

Maria Cristina Giraldo, originally from Colombia and already a U.S. citizen, said she is so fearful of Trump becoming president that she brought five relatives to a naturalization workshop in South Florida.

“Trump is anti-immigrant,” said Giraldo, who works cleaning houses. “I don’t know if it’s because he’s such a brute in his speeches or that he isn’t careful in what he’s saying, but he’s very nasty toward Hispanics.”

Her sister, Gladys Ceballos of Hollywood, Florida, agreed. She’s trying for the second time to become a citizen after failing to pass the English exam. She says she’s not fearful of Trump, but she doesn’t trust him.

John Haughton, 66, a Jamaican immigrant, said: “Trump is a man who would say one thing today and may modify his views tomorrow.”

“I want my voice heard,” said Haughton, a legal permanent resident since 2008.

Seung Baik, 43, who was born in South Korea and brought to the U.S. as a teenager, said he too believes Trump is too divisive.

“It took me a little longer to become a citizen because I didn’t want to apply and treat this as a membership to something, like joining a club,” said Baik, a church pastor. “The world and this nation are changing, and my vote matters.”

Baik said he won’t be registering as a Democrat or Republican but remains independent. He’s undecided about whom he will vote for in his first presidential election as a U.S. citizen, but “it won’t be Donald Trump.”

I can vouch for this personally as there's 22 people on my block who have never voted before and most are becoming citizens, registered voters just because they don't want their immigration status canceled and/ or they and their loved ones deported when most have been here for decades.

Most have been through the harassment of "Go back to your country" bullshit by Trump voters and this is their way of saying.. this is our home too.

 

[Fern]

I bet many who are certain that Hillary will beat Trump were equally as certain that Jeb Bush was going to be the Repub nominee.

Fern

 

[Indus]

I bet many who are certain that Hillary will beat Trump were equally as certain that Jeb Bush was going to be the Repub nominee.

Fern

I don't think it's much about Hillary as much as Anti-Trump. If Kasich was the nominee or Rubio or Huntsman.. hell even John McCain could run again and.. Hillary wouldn't have a prayer.

This election is a not I'm voting for this election but rather, I'm voting against that which I perceive as the greater of two evils election.

 

[compuwiz1]

Clinton primary votes 12.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Trump primary votes 10.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html

Nobody apparently likes Clinton other than 12 million people.

And I hope you realize that virtually all democrats want to run against Trump and they are going to the primaries in droves to get Trump on the ballot. Then they'll switch back in the actual election. Kasich (before any negative press) is destroying Clinton in the polls. Clinton is destroying Trump. Democrats are therefore voting for Trump strategically for the primary only.

Finally, in the "you" part of your post, you must be referring to the wrong person. I'm no democrat. I'd rather vote democrat than republican by far. But I'm certainly no democrat.

Trump has more primary votes than any GOP candidate in history. These are only primaries. What happens when Trump picks up a good share of Bernie supporters who absolutely will not vote for Hillary? I have several of them in my own family who will not vote for her and will switch to Trump.

 

[dullard]

How many "curveballs" you guys need to see this year to realize this isn't a normal election?

And I still think it's too early if only because the Trump vs Hillary campaigning hasn't started yet.

No, this isn't a normal election, but there haven't been any big curveballs YET.

Clinton has been at 47+-3% in the poll averages since Aug 19, 2015. That is 8.5 months and her ratings haven't budged.


Trump has been at 41+-3% in the poll averages since Aug 16, 2015. That is 8.5 months and his ratings haven't budged.
Sure there has been statistical noise, but there really hasn't been any real movement in either candidate. And I don't foresee there being much movement either unless something major happens. Both candidates are in the news spotlight constantly and neither one has any real new mud to sling at them. They are polarizing candidates and the public for the most part has made up their minds on them.

A real curveball would be something like Kasich running as a 3rd party. Or a major problem at a contested election. But barring any major curveball, we'll likely end up not far from their existing poll numbers.

 

[fskimospy]

I bet many who are certain that Hillary will beat Trump were equally as certain that Jeb Bush was going to be the Repub nominee.

Fern

Hmm, let's check.

Whether or not you think such a thing is justified, you know he's right.

After GWB's disastrous presidency I think anyone with the last name of Bush will have a very hard time winning a national election in the US for awhile.

Americans in general have a positive association with the Clinton last name. It very likely helps her chances of winning. Americans in general have a negative association with Bush. That hurts Jeb's chances of winning.

I am having trouble imagining a scenario where he wins the nomination. He has the lack of ideological purity that the Tea Party people hate and he has baggage in his last name that establishment people hate. I don't think his party connections will be enough to overcome it.

Now what do you think?

 

[dullard]

Trump has more primary votes than any GOP candidate in history. These are only primaries. What happens when Trump picks up a good share of Bernie supporters who absolutely will not vote for Hillary? I have several of them in my own family who will not vote for her and will switch to Trump.

If we ignore the democrats who have voted for Trump just to get the chance to run against him, then Trump would need to get 61.1% of Bernie supporters to switch to him just to catch up to Clinton in total votes. Convincing a few democrats to switch to republicans is certainly doable. But to get ~5.5 million to switch (while at the same time having no Never Trump Republicans vote away from Trump)? Laughable.

Plus you'd really need to get them to switch in swing states. Sanders did well in the small swing states but Clinton dominated in the large swing states. Convincing Sanders voters to switch to Trump in New Hampshire may be doable. But it doesn't have many electoral votes. Sanders did very poorly in Florida and Ohio, the bigger swing states.

 

[werepossum]

Trump hasn't even won the Republican nomination for Christ's sake. Can we at least wait and see if there is a campaign before we decide he'll lose it. Nobody has the slightest fucking idea what will happen.

lol +1

 

[Exophase]

I bet many who are certain that Hillary will beat Trump were equally as certain that Jeb Bush was going to be the Repub nominee.

Fern

Possibly, but so what? There's a ton of hard data that works against Trump's favor in a much more compelling fashion than any data that ever supporting Jeb.

 

[stlc8tr]

I bet many who are certain that Hillary will beat Trump were equally as certain that Jeb Bush was going to be the Repub nominee.

What odds are you placing on Clinton vs Trump? And are you taking bets?