My point is that calling something as probabilistic as you want to call it probabilistic doesn't mean you might not get an equally meaningful experience diddling your cat. Whatever comfort and certainty you got from your tea leaves I'm as convinced that Trump will win because a fly fell in my soup. I judge the probabilities, while you have the odds, to have equal weight, you see. Of course if I die between now and then I'll never know, having devoted already way more time to this matter than it's worth. Que Sera, Sera
My point is that calling something as probabilistic as you want to call it probabilistic doesn't mean you might not get an equally meaningful experience diddling your cat. Whatever comfort and certainty you got from your tea leaves I'm as convinced that Trump will win because a fly fell in my soup. I judge the probabilities, while you have the odds, to have equal weight, you see. Of course if I die between now and then I'll never know, having devoted already way more time to this matter than it's worth. Que Sera, Sera
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 174
- 106
No, as I've posted here times before over the years I don't do predictions for elections. I've too often been surprised. E.g., I never saw Bill Clinton coming (a gov from a hick state pretty must last in every metric like education and GDP?) nor GWB. I also said here earlier that (1) Trump wouldn't actually run and (2) if he did he'd flame out and drop out early.
I gave up trying to figure out what might stop Trump after he called-out the Pope for the walls around the Vatican and escaped that unscathed.
Also at this point I wouldn't predict Trump getting to 1237. And if he doesn't god only knows what the delegates might do.
I also see Bernie is now claiming that the Dem convention might well be brokered. Heck, I'd be afraid to bet money on Hillary being the nominee. (But I'm also one that thinks the FBI/email thingy could develop into a real problem.)
Fern
Fern
Elite Member
- Sep 30, 2003
- 26,907
- 174
- 106
Yes, and if, say, Trump or Bernie runs 3rd party the House of Representatives says hello.
This is the craziest election year I've seen (I was too young to notice the riots etc 1968). IDK how it will turn out, but there are some more crazy possibilities never before in play (at not in my lifetime).
Fern
You are free to assume that an examination of the available data is no better than reading tea leaves. I would counter that with the suggestion that there's a reason we don't read tea leaves anymore.
Not true. Swing states are called that because they generally run fairly closely to even. A candidate with a large national polling lead likely leads in the swing states too. While there aren't a ton of state polls like that out yet, from the ones available Hillary is winning almost all of those too.
DrPizza
Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
In related news, polling indicates Trump should easily win Indiana tomorrow. Tomorrow at 8pm, Cruz is expected to give a press conference...
...where he reveals his Cabinet choices.
...where he reveals his Cabinet choices.
Indus
Lifer
- May 11, 2002
- 16,601
- 11,410
- 136
You do love to fantasize. Bernie specifically said he was running as a Dem so as not to split the progressive vote. He won't run 3rd party. He'll back Clinton if it comes to it.
Donald running 3rd party would split Repubs & make Hillary a shoo-in. Trump taking the nom will leave a lot of Cruzers staying home. It's not like Trumpsters will turn out in droves for Ted, either.
Sheik Yerbouti
Lifer
- Feb 16, 2005
- 14,080
- 5,453
- 136
THIS^^
man up alpha-boy. you talk, and talk, and talk, and talk yet when presented with an opportunity to prove not only your integrity about drumpf but your general manliness in general you scuttle to the corner like a scared kitten. C'mon do it that's a win/win for you speedster! do it or just sit quietly in the corner clutching your pearls in disbelief.
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DrPizza
Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
"Trump's going to win" "He's ahead now." "He's going to be leading in more and more polls"
"Care to place a wager?"
"Err, uhhhh, it's a coin toss right now."
If it was an event in the Olympics, I think we found our back-pedaler.
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
- 106
What are you smoking? Trump had the same odds as Rick Santorum in Vegas when he announced his candidacy.
Even Sanders last June had better odds than Trump at 33/1 vs 40/1 (or +4000 or 2.44% implied probability). Today on May 2nd?? +280 or 26.32% implied probability.
http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures
Trump has had a meteoric rise like we've never seen before, to count him out now would be a fool's errand. This country loves an underdog especially going against the evil that is hilary.
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- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
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Once again assuming that I am saying turnout = success. A.s.s.u.m.e Tell your liberal friend dullard who is touting more votes for Clinton with 2 candidates like it means anything, which it does not. Thanks for smacking down your liberal friend for me.
1prophet
Diamond Member
- Aug 17, 2005
- 5,313
- 534
- 126
Perhaps if they have done that when they were first legally eligible and actually got involved in this country and its politics someone like Trump might not even be the runner up if running at all.
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,928
- 143
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Man up with what? You shouldn't be jealous because I'm sound with my money while you make impetuous decisions with yours.
And apparently Trump is trailing Hillary in almost all of them.
He doesn't even get a home state advantage against her.
sportage
Lifer
- Feb 1, 2008
- 11,492
- 3,163
- 136
If any poll coming out now shows Hillary beating Trump, that is fantastic news for Trump.
Because regardless of this or that, or that women hate Trump, or that Blacks and Hispanics would never vote for Trump, despite all of that the polls will flip in Trump's favor come mid Summer.
And especially after Trump wins the nomination at the convention.
Right up until election night 2016 all the media will try to convince people, and more so themselves, that Donald does not have a chance in winning the general.
As Donald walks out on election night waving to the crowd, flanked by his family after wining, the media will still be in total denial.
They will say, this can't happen. This could never happen. How did this happen?
Then they will say, Trump will certainly be a one term president.
And they will say, Dumb America... just wait. You really blew it America. You'll see.
By the end of election night 2016, most republicans would have already accepted the inevitable. Come to terms with Donald Trump actually winning.
The party in full disarray will no longer be the republican party, it will become the democrat party.
Democrats won't know what hit them, or how this could have ever happen.
And there will be a lot of heavy drinking on election night and for many days following.
Republicans will hit the sauce wondering what have they done? What have we created?
What might be in store for our party under Donald Trump, and will we come to regret it?
Democrats will hit the sauce then blame Hillary, and absolutely despise Bernie Sanders for screwing their party. Screwing up their chances.
It will become quite ugly. On both sides.
Because regardless of this or that, or that women hate Trump, or that Blacks and Hispanics would never vote for Trump, despite all of that the polls will flip in Trump's favor come mid Summer.
And especially after Trump wins the nomination at the convention.
Right up until election night 2016 all the media will try to convince people, and more so themselves, that Donald does not have a chance in winning the general.
As Donald walks out on election night waving to the crowd, flanked by his family after wining, the media will still be in total denial.
They will say, this can't happen. This could never happen. How did this happen?
Then they will say, Trump will certainly be a one term president.
And they will say, Dumb America... just wait. You really blew it America. You'll see.
By the end of election night 2016, most republicans would have already accepted the inevitable. Come to terms with Donald Trump actually winning.
The party in full disarray will no longer be the republican party, it will become the democrat party.
Democrats won't know what hit them, or how this could have ever happen.
And there will be a lot of heavy drinking on election night and for many days following.
Republicans will hit the sauce wondering what have they done? What have we created?
What might be in store for our party under Donald Trump, and will we come to regret it?
Democrats will hit the sauce then blame Hillary, and absolutely despise Bernie Sanders for screwing their party. Screwing up their chances.
It will become quite ugly. On both sides.
sportage
Lifer
- Feb 1, 2008
- 11,492
- 3,163
- 136
Cabinet choice or casket choice?
Personally, I'd recommend something with a nice cherry mahogany finish.
Something fitting a Lucifer.
It's funny to me that you're saying 'thanks for smacking down the person that tried to engage with my dumb argument'.
Low IQ post there, haha.
Sheik Yerbouti
Lifer
- Feb 16, 2005
- 14,080
- 5,453
- 136
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