Rasmussen poll 5/2: Trump 41%, Clinton 39%

[SP33Demon]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39

Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup.

Like I said last week liberals, don't be surprised when your precious Clinton starts losing in the polls. It's only a matter of time, and quite frankly even I didn't think it'd start this early. Keep crying about averages my liberal friends, the latest polls like this one and the GWU poll (statistical dead heat) are evidence that Clinton has cracks in the foundation. It has begun.

 

[werepossum]

Considering Scott Rasmussen's recent accuracy, I'd say this is pretty good news for Hillary.

That said, certainly Trump can beat Hillary. I just doubt it happens.

 

[fskimospy]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39



Like I said last week liberals, don't be surprised when your precious Clinton starts losing in the polls. It's only a matter of time, and quite frankly even I didn't think it'd start this early. Keep crying about averages my liberal friends, the latest polls like this one and the GWU poll (statistical dead heat) are evidence that Clinton has cracks in the foundation. It has begun.

You don't like polling averages? No need then! Here's 3 polls as recent as yours or more recent.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/morning-consult-24408

Clinton +7

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ibd-tipp-24414

Clinton +7

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-24395

Clinton +7

You can smell the desperation when they have to pick one single, slightly favorable poll from a poorly rated pollster with a heavy Republican bias. Hell, when you remove the 'house effect' Clinton is even winning in that one, haha.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/

I wonder how long it's going to be until you start complaining that the polls are all biased against Trump because he's losing? Maybe two more months.

 

[alien42]

"But Trump edges slightly ahead if the stay-at-home option is removed."

nice little caveat you intentionally left out.

i also think you are the only person to ever call Clinton "precious" which also displays your fear and desperation.

 

[fskimospy]

What's also interesting is that it seems that Clinton's lead is increasing as time goes by, the exact opposite of what Speedy said:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

 

[zinfamous]

Sp33dy: poll averages are the only accurate measure for polling except for when they disagree with me; and then the 1 out of 10 polls that agrees with me is the only accurate poll!

Typical Sp33dy math.

 

[fskimospy]

Sp33dy: poll averages are the only accurate measure for polling except for when they disagree with me; and then the 1 out of 10 polls that agrees with me is the only accurate poll!

Typical Sp33dy math.

Speedy being a hypocrite aside, I expect polls to become closer after the Republican nomination is sewn up. Partisanship in the US is very, very strong, so even a ludicrous candidate like Trump is going to get most of his party's voters. Hillary is a considerably weaker candidate than incumbent Obama but Trump is a much weaker candidate than Romney, so my gut says that averages out somewhat. My best guess would be a modest lead for Hillary that kind of moves up and down like Obama's did over Romney but overall is pretty stable.

 

[Fern]

Too early to pay too much attention to polls IMO; they haven't really begun to campaign against other yet for one thing.

Plus, the FBI might be releasing its own 'poll'.

Fern

 

[DrPizza]

OP, if you're so certain, and wealthy, put your money where your mouth is. I believe someone offered a 1k wager.

 

[fskimospy]

Too earlier to pay too much attention to polls IMO; they haven't really begun to campaign against other yet for one thing.

Plus, the FBI might be releasing its own 'poll'.

Fern

Polls now account for a bit over half the variance in the final vote result, and the person winning in the April general election polls have won about 2/3rds of the time.

1/3rd of the time certainly isn't nothing, but it's not too early to pay attention to the general election polls. When you combine his poll deficit and how he is the most widely disliked general election candidate in US history that indicates Trump has a steep hill to climb.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Last poll I saw from Rasmussen a few days ago showed a demographic break down of 33% Republican, 35% democrat and 32% other and that showed a tie between the two.

No where near the actual party affiliation demographics and tilted towards Republicans vs. normal affiliation numbers.

But carry on.

 

[dullard]

Like alien said, Trump had the statistically insignificant lead in this poll only in the case that the voter was forced to vote rather than stay at home. Meaning the republicans who dislike Trump weren't allowed to say that they'd sit this election out.

And no one pointed out that national polls don't matter. It is battleground polls that matter. So far, they lean strongly towards Clinton.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guyben...th-shows-trump-would-lose-to-hillary-n2138055

And finally, this election isn't going to be 41%/39%. That missing 20% goes where? So far Trump has shown no strong momentum in turning the undecided towards him. Unless someone major runs as a 3rd party, this is looking more and more like a 52% Clinton / 46% Trump / 2% other election.

 

[alien42]

I'm surprised that no one mentioned that Trump had the statistically insignificant lead in this poll only in the case that the voter was forced to vote rather than stay at home.

i did - http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=38199591&postcount=4

 

[SP33Demon]

OP, if you're so certain, and wealthy, put your money where your mouth is. I believe someone offered a 1k wager.

Only cucks bet 1K online on a coin flip. How about if I win or lose, I get to teabag you liberals? Nah, probably would enjoy that too much.

 

[dullard]

i did

Edited, I am blind.

 

[SP33Demon]

Like alien said, Trump had the statistically insignificant lead in this poll only in the case that the voter was forced to vote rather than stay at home. Meaning the republicans who dislike Trump weren't allowed to say that they'd sit this election out.

And no one pointed out that national polls don't matter. It is battleground polls that matter. So far, they lean strongly towards Clinton.
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guyben...th-shows-trump-would-lose-to-hillary-n2138055

And finally, this election isn't going to be 41%/39%. That missing 20% goes where? So far Trump has shown no strong momentum in turning the undecided towards him.

That doesn't mean anything. All polls are hypothetical, duh. Also, you are reiterating what I said in the OP (polling averages omg!). The cracks in the foundation are about to crumble your little dream as we get closer and closer to the election. Nobody likes Clinton except the people who hate The Donald. Trump is bringing in double the democrats that hillary is bringing in Repubs. That "missing 20%" favors us, not you.

 

[dullard]

Nobody likes Clinton except the people who hate The Donald. Trump is bringing in double the democrats that hillary is bringing in Repubs. That "missing 20%" favors us, not you.

Clinton primary votes 12.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Trump primary votes 10.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html

Nobody apparently likes Clinton other than 12 million people.

And I hope you realize that virtually all democrats want to run against Trump and they are going to the primaries in droves to get Trump on the ballot. Then they'll switch back in the actual election. Kasich (before any negative press) is destroying Clinton in the polls. Clinton is destroying Trump. Democrats are therefore voting for Trump strategically for the primary only.

Finally, in the "you" part of your post, you must be referring to the wrong person. I'm no democrat. I'd rather vote democrat than republican by far. But I'm certainly no democrat.

 

[zinfamous]

Only cucks bet 1K online on a coin flip. How about if I win or lose, I get to teabag you liberals? Nah, probably would enjoy that too much.

so basically you really are poor and lack confidence in all of your meaningless assertions.

 

[zinfamous]

That doesn't mean anything. All polls are hypothetical, duh. Also, you are reiterating what I said in the OP (polling averages omg!). The cracks in the foundation are about to crumble your little dream as we get closer and closer to the election. Nobody likes Clinton except the people who hate The Donald. Trump is bringing in double the democrats that hillary is bringing in Repubs. That "missing 20%" favors us, not you.

"double"

weird math again.

Oh, I get it: you're just regurgitating the stream of conscious ramblings from all the Donald appearances. You probably also believe that the latinos love him, and the women love him!

lol.

 

[soundforbjt]

70% of woman hate Trump, 75+% of Hispanics, I'll guess over 80+% of Blacks, how does he win again?

 

[Moonbeam]

Trump hasn't even won the Republican nomination for Christ's sake. Can we at least wait and see if there is a campaign before we decide he'll lose it. Nobody has the slightest fucking idea what will happen.

 

[fskimospy]

Clinton primary votes 12.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Trump primary votes 10.1 million:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html

Nobody apparently likes Clinton other than 12 million people.

And I hope you realize that virtually all democrats want to run against Trump and they are going to the primaries in droves to get Trump on the ballot. Then they'll switch back in the actual election. Kasich (before any negative press) is destroying Clinton in the polls. Clinton is destroying Trump. Democrats are therefore voting for Trump strategically for the primary only.

Finally, in the "you" part of your post, you must be referring to the wrong person. I'm no democrat. I'd rather vote democrat than republican by far. But I'm certainly no democrat.

This is already starting to have echoes of the 2012 and to a lesser degree 2008 elections. People can root for whoever they want, but this is just what the math says: Trump's victory is not impossible but it is improbable.

When people find their view threatened they start to cherry pick polls that they like or complain that the polls are being unfair to them like the 'Skewed Polls' idiot from 2012. These things are always possible but without an actual methodological or statistical critique it's basically just emotionally invested people crossing their fingers and making wishes.

 

[SP33Demon]

so basically you really are poor and lack confidence in all of your meaningless assertions.

No, I'm not dumb enough to bet 1k on a coin flip. Why don't you do it just for fun and show us all how smart you are? lol

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

It's 6 months until the November election and our resident "experts" already have the outcome all figured out. lol

 

[SP33Demon]

70% of woman hate Trump, 75+% of Hispanics, I'll guess over 80+% of Blacks, how does he win again?

Guise, hao due poalz werk?