Rand study: Legalizing marijuana in CA will not significantly impact drug cartels

[nageov3t]

what if CA legalizing pot leads to other states legalizing pot too?

 

[nonlnear]

Which is why I've said all along that proponents of legalization need to do it under the banner of rights, and harm reduction, not under the false pretense that it is going to stop cartel violence. As far as I remember Cali is pretty self sufficient at marijuana production, from all the medical growers to the outdoor farmers, and indoor hydro farms, I'd be really surprised if even 5% of cartel weed goes there for sale, distribution maybe.

Agreed that liberty and harm reduction are definitely stronger premises, but politics is total war. I don't mind the pro-legalization crowd borrowing some of the DEA's rhetorical tools even if they aren't fully justified in their strongest form. After all, the "help fight crime" argument doesn't hold absolutely true for either side, but it is more legitimate to hold it up as a pro-legalization argument than as a pro-prohibition one.

 

[LunarRay]

I think we are forgetting the real reason marijuana aught to be legalized. It has nothing to do with killing off drug cartels, nothing to do with "fixing" the economy, and everything to do with us living in a free society, one in which individuals have a right to their own life and their body.

We've devolved to the extent where "Everyone Knows" that we can't think for ourselves.... We need our Central Government to do that for us! Rogue States like Calyfornia have no business creating an example of such outrageous independent thinking... It just ain't prudent.

 

[Scotteq]

what if CA legalizing pot leads to other states legalizing pot too?

..then as Fine Supporters of the Capitalist Cause (not to mention disbelievers in the Government's ability to keep Social Security solvent..), we should buy stock in Hostess and Little Debbie snack cakes? :awe:

 

[airdata]

California is already flooded with dispensaries and people who want one, have a medical card already.

The stuff coming from mexico is much much lower quality than what is being produced locally in california.

Legalization will definitely hurt the cartels. They are only in business because of the war on drugs and prohibition. My favorite example is Meth. They went as far as to put over the counter medicine behind the counter everywhere in the states and limit what people could have access to in order to cut back on meth production...

Good, right?

Well... that also gave the cartels a huge boost and another billion dollar product to export to the states. And then you have the added hassle of everyday people needing to show their drivers license in order to buy some sudafed.

 

[rudder]

I think we are forgetting the real reason marijuana aught to be legalized. It has nothing to do with killing off drug cartels, nothing to do with "fixing" the economy, and everything to do with us living in a free society, one in which individuals have a right to their own life and their body.

If we are all paying for obamacare... hell if I am going to make it easier for you to get lung cancer or diabetes from getting too many munchies.

But seriously... there are a lot of factors to consider. I think the OP's point is that people expect the cartels in Mexico to fold up shop and go home should MJ become legal in California and beyond.

 

[Patranus]

Do people really think that drug cartels are just going to roll over and let go of their golden goos?

 

[sandorski]

Do people really think that drug cartels are just going to roll over and let go of their golden goos?

No. I suspect they'll push to have the WoD be continued.

 

[Scotteq]

No. I suspect they'll push to have the WoD be continued.

Delicious Irony, indeed...

 

[actuarial]

If we are all paying for obamacare... hell if I am going to make it easier for you to get lung cancer or diabetes from getting too many munchies.

IMO that argument is actually on the pro-legalization side.

Which is a better economic benefit to society (assuming socialized medicine):
Person A: Pays taxes until 40, gets lung cancer, dies at 42 after medical battle
Person B: Pays taxes until 65, receives SS, dies at 82 after medical battle

I doubt that Person A's acute medical costs are much greater than the last 2 years of old man river's life, but that would be interesting to study (and I believe someone here posted a study showing they are actually less).

Assuming they both start working at age 20:
Person A: Pays in for 20 years, gets regular medical for 40, increased costs for two years
Person B: Pays in for 45 years, gets regular medical for 80 years (at a much higher per-year rater), SS for 15 years, increased costs for a few years

I'm not so sure you're 'paying' for Person A...

 

[SP33Demon]

Who gives a dam about cartels? The bottom line is that MJ = big money for a state that is bankrupt.

 

[Fern]

Meh, I don't think much of that study.

All they are really saying is that CA doesn't generate much money for the drug cartels so losing the CA business won't hurt them.

CA is one our largest states, I can't believe that it won't hurt the cartels.

But I don't recall anyone claiming that removing CA from play will destroy the drug cartels or stop them from importing to other states. The article also doesn't mention the possibility of cartels moving production to CA etc.

Whatever the overall impact on cartels, the CA 'experiment' is worthwhile pursuing. Is the reduction/elimination of Mexican drug cartel profits and violence from CA an inconsequentual acheivement? I don't think so, not at all. (Not to mention the likely financial benefits to the CA budget. Jeebus, that state needs the help it can get. Let's see CA reaping what would otherwise be the cartels pot profits, then try and tell me that's a nothing.)

Fern

 

[xj0hnx]

There are a lot of domestic marijuana suppliers. It is the number 1 cash crop in Tennessee. And heroine and coke can be compacted down and made easier to smuggle. Think about the space required for $100,000 of marijuana versus $100,000 for heroine. Poppies and coca plants are not grown in the U.S.

I think their analysis sounds reasonable.

There are actually huge poppy fields in the US and Canada, the difference is they supply crafting markets instead of heroin producers.

 

[sandorski]

There are actually huge poppy fields in the US and Canada, the difference is they supply crafting markets instead of heroin producers.

Yup, Poppies will grow here no problem. I suspect that Coca would grow in many places too. There's a wide variety of Terrain/Climates available, some of them would be suitable.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

Who gives a dam about cartels? The bottom line is that MJ = big money for a state that is bankrupt.

How will it equate to big money if people will be growing their own pot? It's not hard to grow pot in your backyard if you really wanted since after all it is a weed that grows ravenously almost anywhere it is planted in CA. This after all the basic argument produced on page 1, "Mexican cartels will lose out because people will be able to grow their own weed, etc.".

 

[xj0hnx]

How will it equate to big money if people will be growing their own pot? It's not hard to grow pot in your backyard if you really wanted since after all it is a weed that grows ravenously almost anywhere it is planted in CA.

Brewing beer isn't too hard either, yet we have a thriving beer market. Not even close to everyone that smokes is going to turn in Johnny Appleseed just because weed is legal, and growing the really good stuff is an art that takes time to master.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

Brewing beer isn't too hard either, yet we have a thriving beer market. Not even close to everyone that smokes is going to turn in Johnny Appleseed just because weed is legal, and growing the really good stuff is an art that takes time to master.

Growing pot is infinitely easier then brewing beer. Again it is a weed that grows anywhere and doesn't require a lot of know how to grow. How many people have vegetable or flower gardens in their backyards?

Answer: LOTS

Why would anyone pay for a taxed product when they can grow it for free and not have to put in any major effort into the act because of the nature of the growth cycle of pot?

 

[Fern]

Growing pot is infinitely easier then brewing beer. Again it is a weed that grows anywhere and doesn't require a lot of know how to grow. How many people have vegetable or flower gardens in their backyards?

Answer: LOTS

Why would anyone pay for a taxed product when they can grow it for free and not have to put in any major effort into the act because of the nature of the growth cycle of pot?

Tomato and many other vegitable plants are just weeds too. Yet grocery stores still seem to sell most of them.

Sure, some people will grow, but many won't. Just as many would rather pop on over to the grocery store instead growing their tomatoes, potatoes, or peppers etc.

Also, growing even decent pot is not all that easy. You do have to work a bit at it.

Fern

 

[BigDH01]

Tomato and many other vegitable plants are just weeds too. Yet grocery stores still seem to sell most of them.

Sure, some people will grow, but many won't. Just as many would rather pop on over to the grocery store instead growing their tomatoes, potatoes, or peppers etc.

Also, growing even decent pot is not all that easy. You do have to work a bit at it.

Fern

This. Although I've never grown it, it's my understanding that making good pot is an art.

Also, I can quite easily make beer, it'll just taste like shit. Same thing here. I can quite easily grow pot in my backyard, doesn't mean it'll be any good.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

Tomato and many other vegitable plants are just weeds too. Yet grocery stores still seem to sell most of them.

Sure, some people will grow, but many won't. Just as many would rather pop on over to the grocery store instead growing their tomatoes, potatoes, or peppers etc.

Also, growing even decent pot is not all that easy. You do have to work a bit at it.

Fern

Decent pot is not that hard to grow sorry it isn't unless you are going for higher quality stuff. Of course the higher quality pot is complete over kill considering how the brain functions and the nature/quantity of thc receptors and the effects of prolonged use of pot. Being a infrequent user would give a better high then someone who smokes the best stuff money can buy but who also smokes every day and several times a day.

Oh and food vs pot is not in the same realm of comparison. People need food to live thus there is still a large market for it but people don't need pot to live and I doubt their will be a large recreational market for retail pot sales.

 

[JD50]

I think we are forgetting the real reason marijuana aught to be legalized. It has nothing to do with killing off drug cartels, nothing to do with "fixing" the economy, and everything to do with us living in a free society, one in which individuals have a right to their own life and their body.

:thumbsup:

 

[shira]

http://www.rand.org/news/press/2010/10/12/index.html

So basically, the only way this proposition would make any sort of impact on drug smuggling would be if California replaced Mexico in supplying the rest of the US with higher-quality pot. I highly doubt the US government is going to stand by while that happens.

Otherwise, the argument that passing this proposition would cut down on cartel violence is basically shot. If anything, violence would probably increase as the cartels fight to gain control of a (slightly) smaller market, similar to the end of prohibition with Chicago organized crime.

The vote of any individual will almost certainly have no effect on the outcome of an election. Therefore, no one should vote.

 

[MotF Bane]

I think we are forgetting the real reason marijuana aught to be legalized. It has nothing to do with killing off drug cartels, nothing to do with "fixing" the economy, and everything to do with us living in a free society, one in which individuals have a right to their own life and their body.

This.

 

[bfdd]

The article is fucking stupid because everyone knows that's exactly what is going to happen or tourism will kick up here again and people will be coming to smoke weed. Not to mention other states aren't that far behind California in this movement. Colorado isn't to far behind and I heard Nevada is lightening up to it too.

 

[bfdd]

Decent pot is not that hard to grow sorry it isn't unless you are going for higher quality stuff. Of course the higher quality pot is complete over kill considering how the brain functions and the nature/quantity of thc receptors and the effects of prolonged use of pot. Being a infrequent user would give a better high then someone who smokes the best stuff money can buy but who also smokes every day and several times a day.

Oh and food vs pot is not in the same realm of comparison. People need food to live thus there is still a large market for it but people don't need pot to live and I doubt their will be a large recreational market for retail pot sales.

It's not even that hard to grow good quality pot lol.