Rand study: Legalizing marijuana in CA will not significantly impact drug cartels

[PeshakJang]

http://www.rand.org/news/press/2010/10/12/index.html

Legalizing marijuana in California will not dramatically reduce the drug revenues collected by Mexican drug trafficking organizations from sales to the United States, according to a new RAND Corporation study.


The only scenario where legalization in California could substantially reduce the revenue of the drug trafficking organizations is if high-potency, California-produced marijuana is smuggled to other U.S. states at prices that are lower than those of current Mexican supplies, according to the study from the RAND Drug Policy Research Center. RAND is a nonprofit research organization.


The study calculates that Mexican drug trafficking organizations generate only $1 billion to $2 billion annually from exporting marijuana to the United States and selling it to wholesalers, far below existing estimates by the government and other groups.


The RAND study also finds that the often-cited claim that marijuana accounts for 60 percent of gross drug export revenues of Mexican drug trafficking organizations is not credible. RAND's exploratory analysis on this point suggests that 15 percent to 26 percent is a more credible range. Given that California accounts for about 14 percent of the nation's marijuana use, this suggests that if marijuana legalization in California only influences the California market, it would have a small effect on drug trafficking organizations — cutting total drug export revenues by perhaps 2 to 4 percent.


However, the impact of legalization on Mexican drug trafficking organizations' bottom line could be magnified if marijuana cultivated in California is smuggled into other states, according to the study. After legalization, if low-cost, high-quality marijuana produced in California dominates the U.S. marijuana market, then the Mexican drug trafficking organizations' revenue from exporting marijuana could decline by more than 65 percent and probably closer to 85 percent. In this scenario, results from the RAND study suggest the drug trafficking organizations would lose roughly 20 percent of their total drug export revenues.

So basically, the only way this proposition would make any sort of impact on drug smuggling would be if California replaced Mexico in supplying the rest of the US with higher-quality pot. I highly doubt the US government is going to stand by while that happens.

Otherwise, the argument that passing this proposition would cut down on cartel violence is basically shot. If anything, violence would probably increase as the cartels fight to gain control of a (slightly) smaller market, similar to the end of prohibition with Chicago organized crime.

 

[ayabe]

More propaganda...15 to 26%? lol

It's going to happen and no amount of paid for fear mongering is going to stop it.

 

[Vette73]

Thats like me saying that me not buying dominos pizza will not put them out of business so I should just keep buying their pizza.

 

[PeshakJang]

More propaganda...15 to 26%? lol

As opposed to the 60% figure that had no basis in reality?

So what is it then? Give us your insight.

 

[PeshakJang]

Thats like me saying that me not buying dominos pizza will not put them out of business so I should just keep buying their pizza.

Half the argument is based on exactly that though. "Vote for this bill and we'll put Domino's out of business!", when in reality, they'll just sell to the rest of the neighborhood, and probably firebomb Pizza Hut.

 

[nonlnear]

Holy straw man Batman!

The entire premise of the "study" is flawed: that anyone believed that California was the only place that Mexican cartels sold drugs to. Also there is an obvious and deliberate omission:

The only scenario where legalization in California could substantially reduce the revenue of the drug trafficking organizations is if high-potency, California-produced marijuana is smuggled to other U.S. states at prices that are lower than those of current Mexican supplies, according to the study from the RAND Drug Policy Research Center. RAND is a nonprofit research organization.

You mean to tell me that an entire think tank full of supposedly intelligent people didn't imagine another possibility: the rest of the states legalizing marijuana too, thereby killing demand for imports. Yes they worded the premise carefully, supposedly freeing them of the need to hypothesize about other scenarios, but that is not exactly good policy research now. Either the Rand Institute is full of lobotomized idiots or it's awash with pro-DEA money (or some proxy thereof)...

 

[Thump553]

Do any kind of study of prohibition causing the explosive growth of organized crime (and general lawlessness) in the US and decide for yourself whether this study's conclusions are valid.

BTW, an excellent new book on Prohibition is Last Call: The rise and fall of Prohibition by Daniel Okrent. A truely fascinating read, it lays out how an astute and active minority can control our political processes.

 

[sandorski]

Restricting the Sale of certain Weapons in California wouldn't keep those Weapons off of California's streets either. Certain things need National Implementation to truly achieve their Goals.

Surprise surprise!

 

[umbrella39]

More propaganda...15 to 26%? lol

It's going to happen and no amount of paid for fear mongering is going to stop it.

This.

 

[Scotteq]

Half the argument is based on exactly that though. "Vote for this bill and we'll put Domino's out of business!", when in reality, they'll just sell to the rest of the neighborhood, and probably firebomb Pizza Hut.

Speaking as one who gew up and still lives in the greater New York area, I wholeheartedly support the government's fine, fine efforts against mass market Pizza. It's time to put a stop to the abomination corrupting the morals of the country, as well as the waistlines of our children. ^_^



Yes - I do remember eating REAL pizza at the original Joe's in Greenwich Village. It was a sad, sad day when it closed. Thanks to the grace of our good lord, Lombardi's continues to survive.

 

[PeshakJang]

Holy straw man Batman!

The entire premise of the "study" is flawed: that anyone believed that California was the only place that Mexican cartels sold drugs to. Also there is an obvious and deliberate omission:You mean to tell me that an entire think tank full of supposedly intelligent people didn't imagine another possibility: the rest of the states legalizing marijuana too, thereby killing demand for imports. Yes they worded the premise carefully, supposedly freeing them of the need to hypothesize about other scenarios, but that is not exactly good policy research now. Either the Rand Institute is full of lobotomized idiots or it's awash with pro-DEA money (or some proxy thereof)...

This is a study on the specific impact of the California proposition, not a nation-wide legalization, which isn't even close to being considered.

Many pro-legalization groups use the argument that legalizing in California would significantly cut the funding to Mexican drug cartels. This study studies that argument specifically. If you can't understand that, you didn't read anything written.

The argument from one of many pro-legalization groups:

HELP FIGHT THE DRUG CARTELS


Marijuana prohibition has created vicious drug cartels across our border. In 2008 alone, cartels murdered 6,290 civilians in Mexico—more than all U.S. troops killed in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
60 percent of drug cartel revenue comes from the illegal U.S. marijuana market.
By controlling marijuana, Proposition 19 will help cut off funding to the cartels.

 

[hellotyler]

It may only be a small part of their income, but that 'small part' is still hundreds of millions of dollars. There is definite fear mongering going on.

 

[PeshakJang]

Do any kind of study of prohibition causing the explosive growth of organized crime (and general lawlessness) in the US and decide for yourself whether this study's conclusions are valid.

Or you could read the study itself and decide if the conclusions are valid. It's simply a matter of numbers in this case. Figure out how much money cartels make off of California for pot alone, and then think about what will happen once it is legal.

 

[PeshakJang]

It may only be a small part of their income, but that 'small part' is still hundreds of millions of dollars. There is definite fear mongering going on.

Fear mongering like saying, "If we don't make it legal, the cartels will keep killing people."?

The point of this study is simple... determine an approximate financial impact that legalization in CA would have on the Mexican cartels. It refutes the figures used by the pro-legalization crowd as an argument, or at least significantly decreases them.

 

[PeshakJang]

Speaking as one who gew up and still lives in the greater New York area, I wholeheartedly support the government's fine, fine efforts against mass market Pizza. It's time to put a stop to the abomination corrupting the morals of the country, as well as the waistlines of our children. ^_^



Yes - I do remember eating REAL pizza at the original Joe's in Greenwich Village. It was a sad, sad day when it closed. Thanks to the grace of our good lord, Lombardi's continues to survive.

You need some Pizzaria Uno (the real one, not the chain)... otherwise you are just eating cheap skunk pizza.

 

[sandorski]

Fear mongering like saying, "If we don't make it legal, the cartels will keep killing people."?

The point of this study is simple... determine an approximate financial impact that legalization in CA would have on the Mexican cartels. It refutes the figures used by the pro-legalization crowd as an argument, or at least significantly decreases them.

It still makes sense for California to follow through, whether they'll put Cartels out of business or not. If for no other reason than to get the ball rolling. The premise is sound, even if their individual action doesn't accomplish the end.

 

[xj0hnx]

Fear mongering like saying, "If we don't make it legal, the cartels will keep killing people."?

The point of this study is simple... determine an approximate financial impact that legalization in CA would have on the Mexican cartels. It refutes the figures used by the pro-legalization crowd as an argument, or at least significantly decreases them.

Which is why I've said all along that proponents of legalization need to do it under the banner of rights, and harm reduction, not under the false pretense that it is going to stop cartel violence. As far as I remember Cali is pretty self sufficient at marijuana production, from all the medical growers to the outdoor farmers, and indoor hydro farms, I'd be really surprised if even 5% of cartel weed goes there for sale, distribution maybe.

 

[Scotteq]

You need some Pizzaria Uno (the real one, not the chain)... otherwise you are just eating cheap skunk pizza.

CHICAGO PIZZA!?!??!?


BLASPHEMY!!!!!



(**though I could be talked into a bipartisan conference to analyze and negoitiate a truce and central understanding... Over generous samples and a suitable selection of local microbrews, of course. After all, I'm a reasonable man, and not one of those heathens who defile the Holyness of our beloved Pizza with... < *spit* > pineapple...)

 

[rudder]

More propaganda...15 to 26%? lol

It's going to happen and no amount of paid for fear mongering is going to stop it.

There are a lot of domestic marijuana suppliers. It is the number 1 cash crop in Tennessee. And heroine and coke can be compacted down and made easier to smuggle. Think about the space required for $100,000 of marijuana versus $100,000 for heroine. Poppies and coca plants are not grown in the U.S.

I think their analysis sounds reasonable.

 

[PeshakJang]

It still makes sense for California to follow through, whether they'll put Cartels out of business or not. If for no other reason than to get the ball rolling. The premise is sound, even if their individual action doesn't accomplish the end.

I don't disagree with that... but I think that there are more problems that may come out of this that haven't really been explored... like the possible increase in marijuana exports from California to other states in the US. It would be near-impossible to control, and it will be interesting to see how the Federal government acts in response.

 

[sandorski]

I don't disagree with that... but I think that there are more problems that may come out of this that haven't really been explored... like the possible increase in marijuana exports from California to other states in the US. It would be near-impossible to control, and it will be interesting to see how the Federal government acts in response.

I doubt "Exports" would increase. If they did, that would likely have more impact on Illegal Cartels.

 

[BoberFett]

This seems like kind of a "No duh" moment. Legalizing in CA will only affect the market by the amount spent on MJ in CA. So whatever portion of the US drug market CA has is what the effect on the market as a whole will be. It's not really that difficult.

 

[LunarRay]

I would think it wise for the Mexican Drug folks to invest in the infrastructure to manufacture HPS and MH and maybe even Fluorescent lighting systems which under NAFTA can legally be exported to California.

Why would the many who consume 'Pot' continue to buy sub-standard 'Pot' when they can grow and harvest their own? Maybe even better quality with the pride of growing it going to the mindset of the grower/consumer... Maybe even have 'Pot' tasting contests... hehehehehe

One bit that I have floating about in my thinking is NAFTA... I wonder if an argument can be made by Mexico that to legalize it in California but yet criminalize the the exportation to California from Mexico of 'Pot' might not be a violation of NAFTA and an attempt to isolate (economically) the market to home grown "Buy American" thinking.

 

[bamacre]

I think we are forgetting the real reason marijuana aught to be legalized. It has nothing to do with killing off drug cartels, nothing to do with "fixing" the economy, and everything to do with us living in a free society, one in which individuals have a right to their own life and their body.

 

[nonlnear]

This is a study on the specific impact of the California proposition, not a nation-wide legalization, which isn't even close to being considered.

Many pro-legalization groups use the argument that legalizing in California would significantly cut the funding to Mexican drug cartels. This study studies that argument specifically. If you can't understand that, you didn't read anything written.

The argument from one of many pro-legalization groups:

HELP FIGHT THE DRUG CARTELS


Marijuana prohibition has created vicious drug cartels across our border. In 2008 alone, cartels murdered 6,290 civilians in Mexico—more than all U.S. troops killed in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
60 percent of drug cartel revenue comes from the illegal U.S. marijuana market.
By controlling marijuana, Proposition 19 will help cut off funding to the cartels.

Wait, I don't see anywhere in there where they say that legalization in California will end anything. All I see is "Help fight..." Seriously, what more can Californians do than do what Californians can do? Why is it that the "help fight the cartels" argument can [il]legitimately be stretched into a "legalization in California will wipe out the cartels' profits" straw man?

I guess understanding that a marginal impact is better than no impact at all qualifies as "not understanding" though...