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Question...is it pretty much certain that Obama will win?

M

ManBearPig

Diamond Member
Just curious...is it statistically pretty much over? All i keep seeing in the news (about the election) is that hes up in all the polls. Do these polls even mean much?
 
Yes.

Obama looked at Kerry's math problem (mainly OH and FL) and early on decided to redraw the map.

He built a firewall with a number of formerly red states: IA, NM, CO, NV, and VA. He's put a lot of other red states into the toss-up column: IN, NC, MO, OH, FL, AZ, and MT.

His path to 270 is a lot different than what Kerry tried four years ago. That's why all the pollsters and pundits are predicting such a lopsided victory.
 
The polls seem to go inverse to the market. If the markets rally between now and election day...like hardcore...and McCain finally gives Republicans a reason to vote for him (which he won't)...he could pull it out. But it's definitely Obama's to lose. I'd say 20:1 Obama
 
After 2000 and especially 2004, I would never say that the GOP is out of it. Too close (still) to call at this point (my opinion).
 
Yes, especially since early ballots sent in all heavily favor Obama. That's the margin of error right there, so barring a video of Obama sexual harassing a white women in a Muslim mosque, this thing is over.
 
To echo Vic, it's not over 'til it's over, and it's not over yet. No counting of the chickens before they're hatched, please.
 
Most political discussions are influenced by the political views of the folks involved. So one good way I've found to remove that factor is to put some money on the table...that tends to trump ideology pretty quick. Thankfully, the folks at Intrade have a market for all sorts of things like this, you can buy "shares" of Obama or McCain winning that will pay out at a value of 100 ($10) if the candidate wins. McCain winning is trading at 11.7 right now, which means that if you bought $117 worth of McCain shares, you'd get $1000 if he won. Obama, on the other hand, is trading at 89.3, which means a buy of $893 would net you $1000 if he wins.

This should tell you more than any partisan analysis ever could. If McCain had a good chance of winning, his shares would be selling like crazy, which would drive the price up. You can get almost 10 times your money in return if he wins, yet his share price has been steadily dropping. This tells me that the folks with some skin in the game aren't too confident in his chances, and while they might be wrong, they at least have some incentive not to be.
 
McCain has a 11.7% chance of winning...I've seen too many bad beat poker hands to say that I've seen worse odds happen.
 
i'm not going to believe until the election day...

if anything, the money spent on the election by both parties are pretty good economic stimulus....
 
Originally posted by: JS80
McCain has a 11.7% chance of winning
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According to whom?

Bonus: Nate Silver made a post about the Cellphone Effect tonight.

Avg. Obama Lead With Polls That Are Land-line Only: +5.1

Avg. Obama Lead With Polls That Include Cellphone Sampling: +9.4
 
Originally posted by: Butterbean
Originally posted by: Tab
Originally posted by: Vic
Nothing is certain.
Click to expand...

Statistically speaking Obama has already won.
Click to expand...

That's what ACORN would like to think - talk about redrawing the map
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Intrade has the odds of an Obama win at basically 10 - 1 right now... I guess the liberals have gotten to bookies too!
 
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