Question...is it pretty much certain that Obama will win?

ManBearPig

Diamond Member
Sep 5, 2000
9,173
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Just curious...is it statistically pretty much over? All i keep seeing in the news (about the election) is that hes up in all the polls. Do these polls even mean much?
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Yes "pretty much", although not completely locked. And yes the polls mean something.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
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Yes.

Obama looked at Kerry's math problem (mainly OH and FL) and early on decided to redraw the map.

He built a firewall with a number of formerly red states: IA, NM, CO, NV, and VA. He's put a lot of other red states into the toss-up column: IN, NC, MO, OH, FL, AZ, and MT.

His path to 270 is a lot different than what Kerry tried four years ago. That's why all the pollsters and pundits are predicting such a lopsided victory.
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
9,717
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The polls seem to go inverse to the market. If the markets rally between now and election day...like hardcore...and McCain finally gives Republicans a reason to vote for him (which he won't)...he could pull it out. But it's definitely Obama's to lose. I'd say 20:1 Obama
 

TallBill

Lifer
Apr 29, 2001
46,017
62
91
Yes, it's so certain that it's not even worth your time to go out and vote.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
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After 2000 and especially 2004, I would never say that the GOP is out of it. Too close (still) to call at this point (my opinion).
 

First

Lifer
Jun 3, 2002
10,518
271
136
Yes, especially since early ballots sent in all heavily favor Obama. That's the margin of error right there, so barring a video of Obama sexual harassing a white women in a Muslim mosque, this thing is over.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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To echo Vic, it's not over 'til it's over, and it's not over yet. No counting of the chickens before they're hatched, please.
 

ThunderDawg

Member
Jan 7, 2003
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Let's not forget the dirty tricks the GOP uses to steal elections. They don't want us to count the votes.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
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Aug 23, 2003
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If Obama doesn't win, thank Diebold.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,515
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Most political discussions are influenced by the political views of the folks involved. So one good way I've found to remove that factor is to put some money on the table...that tends to trump ideology pretty quick. Thankfully, the folks at Intrade have a market for all sorts of things like this, you can buy "shares" of Obama or McCain winning that will pay out at a value of 100 ($10) if the candidate wins. McCain winning is trading at 11.7 right now, which means that if you bought $117 worth of McCain shares, you'd get $1000 if he won. Obama, on the other hand, is trading at 89.3, which means a buy of $893 would net you $1000 if he wins.

This should tell you more than any partisan analysis ever could. If McCain had a good chance of winning, his shares would be selling like crazy, which would drive the price up. You can get almost 10 times your money in return if he wins, yet his share price has been steadily dropping. This tells me that the folks with some skin in the game aren't too confident in his chances, and while they might be wrong, they at least have some incentive not to be.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
McCain has a 11.7% chance of winning...I've seen too many bad beat poker hands to say that I've seen worse odds happen.
 

Pepsei

Lifer
Dec 14, 2001
12,895
1
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i'm not going to believe until the election day...

if anything, the money spent on the election by both parties are pretty good economic stimulus....
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
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Originally posted by: JS80
McCain has a 11.7% chance of winning
According to whom?

Bonus: Nate Silver made a post about the Cellphone Effect tonight.

Avg. Obama Lead With Polls That Are Land-line Only: +5.1

Avg. Obama Lead With Polls That Include Cellphone Sampling: +9.4
 

BeauJangles

Lifer
Aug 26, 2001
13,941
1
0
Originally posted by: Butterbean
Originally posted by: Tab
Originally posted by: Vic
Nothing is certain.

Statistically speaking Obama has already won.

That's what ACORN would like to think - talk about redrawing the map

Intrade has the odds of an Obama win at basically 10 - 1 right now... I guess the liberals have gotten to bookies too!