[Q] ARM vs x86 in consumer space in 10 years

[511]

You are just wired to think in terms of Intel, aren't you?

Well that's how it's written up

 

[adroc_thurston]

Microsoft got Zen4 CPU with HBM.

Hey that was basically a freebie from MI300A.

Axion?

yea it's a Marvell part.

 

[Nothingness]

You say that as though the desktop market is healthy, and not in steady decline.

I just stated a fact: Arm-based desktops mostly don't exist. Does it matter now? I don't think so except for gamers and for some workstation workloads.

 

[adroc_thurston]

as though the desktop market is healthy, and not in steady decline.

It's alright?
DIY DT is doing very well for whoever wins and OEM DT is a reasonably healthy market for everyone involved?

 

[igor_kavinski]

I just stated a fact: Arm-based desktops mostly don't exist.

In the hands of consumers, no but they are already being tested. Won't be long. They will probably not be a rarity in 2026.

 

[adroc_thurston]

In the hands of consumers, no but they are already being tested. Won't be long. They will probably not be a rarity in 2026.

what's the market for an aa64 desktop?

 

[igor_kavinski]

what's the market for an aa64 desktop?

People who love trying new things out!

 

[adroc_thurston]

People who love trying new things out!

that's a weird way to spell "masochists too into involuntary torture".

 

[igor_kavinski]

that's a weird way to spell "masochists too into involuntary torture".

Is that your way of saying that you aren't into Linux? From the way you talk, I thought you are always putting your fingers inside hardware holes of different variety

 

[adroc_thurston]

Is that your way of saying that you aren't into Linux?

Modern client Linux is fine doe.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Modern client Linux is fine doe.

And working on Snapdragon so yes, they will sell at least 100,000 units worldwide.

 

[inquiss]

Well they don't, they also have to pay per-unit fees to ARM.

No, they also have to pay ARM's profit margin.
It's smaller than AMD's for now, but that's not forever.

Many seem to overlook this. ARM wants to be a merchant provider with merchant margins. They're gonna get there by, well, becoming a merchant and going to TSMC direct and jacking up license fees so as not to have companies undercut their own products. It's not now but it is when.

 

[johnsonwax]

what's the market for an aa64 desktop?

Well, the Mac Mini is doing fine, but that's really a question for Microsoft who are the ones driving the Windows on ARM bus, and who decided that the x86 OEM market was such a sh*tshow of race to the bottom garbage that they entered direct competition with them, now to the point of architecting new silicon. One of the more recent sticking points was the lack of on-die NPUs in the x86 space. If we continue down the road of asymmetric cores, Microsoft having agency in how silicon is designed may prove quite important. So most immediately the market is AI PCs that don't want to drop money on discrete GPUs. Personally I think that market is stupid, but Microsoft doesn't.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Well, the Mac Mini is doing fine,

lol

but that's really a question for Microsoft who are the ones driving the Windows on ARM bus

no they ain't, because it's not Windows on ARM, but Windows on Snapdragon.

One of the more recent sticking points was the lack of on-die NPUs in the x86 space. If we continue down the road of asymmetric cores, Microsoft having agency in how silicon is designed may prove quite important. So most immediately the market is AI PCs that don't want to drop money on discrete GPUs. Personally I think that market is stupid, but Microsoft doesn't.

oh man that's a lot of buzzwords. get real.

 

[Doug S]

no they ain't, because it's not Windows on ARM, but Windows on Snapdragon.

That's only because Microsoft made a deal with Qualcomm giving them an exclusive for Windows on ARM until end of last year.

The question is why did Microsoft agree to that exclusive. One possibility is that Qualcomm paid them. The other is that Qualcomm indicated they would otherwise be unwilling to invest in bringing Windows ARM PCs to the market. Either way Qualcomm wanting an exclusive probably means they were concerned about competing for OEM design wins against companies like Mediatek who operate on lower margins.

 

[adroc_thurston]

That's only because Microsoft made a deal with Qualcomm giving them an exclusive for Windows on ARM until end of last year.

No that's because Qualcomm was the only viable vendor for MS after Tegra3 misadventures in SurfaceRT.

The question is why did Microsoft agree to that exclusive

Who were the other options?

against companies like Mediatek who operate on lower margins.

MTK doesn't have any IP to compete in the PC market.

 

[Doug S]

Who were the other options?

What do you mean "other options"? You say that as if Microsoft HAD TO HAVE an exclusive with someone. The other option was "no one gets an exclusive", just like the situation with x86. The entrants there are restricted by x86 licenses, but they didn't have any deals with Intel or AMD that prevented Via and Transmeta from attempting to break into the x86 market.

 

[johnsonwax]

That's only because Microsoft made a deal with Qualcomm giving them an exclusive for Windows on ARM until end of last year.

The question is why did Microsoft agree to that exclusive. One possibility is that Qualcomm paid them. The other is that Qualcomm indicated they would otherwise be unwilling to invest in bringing Windows ARM PCs to the market. Either way Qualcomm wanting an exclusive probably means they were concerned about competing for OEM design wins against companies like Mediatek who operate on lower margins.

It's the latter. Same reason why AT&T demanded an exclusive on iPhone at launch - because nobody was willing to take a risk on the unproven market without the exclusive. Not uncommon. iPhone emerged having proven the market, not sure Windows on ARM has.

 

[adroc_thurston]

What do you mean "other options"?

beats me.

You say that as if Microsoft HAD TO HAVE an exclusive with someone.

QC was the only option for WoA.
Tegras suck fat schlong (and MS had an unfortunate experience with the things due to SurfaceRT). Who else?

 

[NTMBK]

But that has the exact same problem I just described- there are no games for it. If you want a device that does that, you are much better off with an x86 SoC which can run the Steam back catalogue, and has a built in h.264 decoder which can decode the video stream just fine.

Yay, I predicted the Steam Deck SoC 7 years early

 

[igor_kavinski]

Yay, I predicted the Steam Deck SoC 7 years early

Take proof of your post into your next job interview for Head of Future Research Direction position

 

[Eug]

I just stated a fact: Arm-based desktops mostly don't exist. Does it matter now? I don't think so except for gamers and for some workstation workloads.

Typing on an ARM desktop right now. I've been on ARM desktops for several years now.

 

[Nothingness]

Typing on an ARM desktop right now. I've been on ARM desktops for several years now.

Yeah, I forgot about the Mac Mini (funny as I have one...) and the Mac Studio. But I don't think they represent a significant market share.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Yeah, I forgot about the Mac Mini (funny as I have one...) and the Mac Studio. But I don't think they represent a significant market share.

Umm yeahhh but it's not REAL ARM. It's ARM contaminated with Apple's draconian security measures pretending to "protect" their users when all they are doing is protecting their own interests.

 

[Eug]

Yeah, I forgot about the Mac Mini (funny as I have one...) and the Mac Studio. But I don't think they represent a significant market share.

Heheh. I didn’t realize you even have a Mac mini. 🤣 Don’t forget about the iMac though, since that’s actually the best selling ARM desktop. There’s also the Mac Pro but those numbers are quite small.

Depending upon the source, Macs account for around 10% to 17% global PC shipments, so that’s a pretty big number.

However, if you are looking at strictly desktops, desktop Macs represent only around 15% of total Mac sales, meaning global Mac desktop sales are probably around 2% of global PC sales.