Here's my take: both kinect are move and going to be ridiculous failures.
Kinect is WAY ahead of it's time. Its way overpromising on what it can do, and it's going to have massive drawbacks that not enough people are talking about. Lag isn't going to be the problem, the problem is going to be issues like people sitting down, people moving around, etc. The thing with the wii is that you could play it how you wanted, it never had to ask too much of you. The fact that it was limited was a good thing - simpler means less to go wrong. I expect kinect to be looked back on as a fuckup on the same level as the virtual boy - a one trick pony gimmick that required too many sacrifices in order for you to enjoy half assed games. The only thing kinect has going for it is the potential killer app in dance central, but unless real gamers have a reason to want to buy it and show it off, it's DOA.
Move OTOH has far more potential as an actual gaming device, and is basically what you'd expect from the 2nd gen of wii style motion controls. The problem is that Sony seems to have about as much dedication and marketing behind it as a light gun peripheral, and I wouldnt expect it to be received any better. It won't be a fuckup like kinect, people will just be completely oblivious to it in a years time.