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Probability - Tell me I'm not crazy

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hypeMarked

Senior member
Apr 15, 2002
708
0
71
Phew!!! I was WTF!!! the whole time last night trying to sleep and just can't believe it. And damn thepd7, that's a lot of money we're talking haha. Not only this, these are the same friends that BELIEVE controllers for FPS are way better than the traditional keyboard and mouse. Hmm, should I bet on that too? mwahahaha.....oh wait, I'm not that evil. You guys have turned me into a sadistic member of the ATOT >:)
 

djheater

Lifer
Mar 19, 2001
14,637
2
0
I've been in situations like this several times, it makes me feel like I'm an alien on some other world.

Once a group of 20 year old guys didn't beleive me that birds are not mammals...
Then a different group of guys weren't sure if fish were vertebrates or not...

ay yi yi...
 

hypeMarked

Senior member
Apr 15, 2002
708
0
71
djheater, that's EXACTLY how I felt several times when talking with these guys. If only I have the guts to tear them apart, it seems so inhumane.
 

So

Lifer
Jul 2, 2001
25,914
3
81
FYI, I've played games of settlers (each player rolls a pair of dice each turn) where >100 rolls have happened and one number has never come up.
 

torpid

Lifer
Sep 14, 2003
11,631
11
76
That makes no sense at all. Think of it this way... for your friends to be right, each number on the 6 sided die must come up once if you roll 6 times. Otherwise you could have 6 people each picking a different number, and at least one of them would lose.
 
Oct 20, 2005
10,978
44
91
They must have been just joking with you OR you must have misunderstood what they said, because any normal person can see that just b/c you roll a die 6 times, you won't necessarily hit every # once.

I'm pretty sure they can imagine rolling a "1" 6x and thus not hitting 2-6 any time.
 

Casawi

Platinum Member
Oct 31, 2004
2,366
1
0
Some people just don't get it, as long as you buddies aren't engineers wanabes.
 

RadiclDreamer

Diamond Member
Aug 8, 2004
8,620
38
91
Originally posted by: hypeMarked
I'm saying that there's a chance that even after 6 rolls you won't get the number that you want. They say it's not true and are standing firm. I know this is a rant, but damn, how can people be like this?
Because they are completely retarded and braindead
 

hypeMarked

Senior member
Apr 15, 2002
708
0
71
Oh, I'm sure I made it clear what they mean and what I meant. They even use crit% from WoW to try and prove me wrong. One of them said that if you have 25% crit rating, it means that you're guaranteed a crit within 4 hits. The other chimes in and said if you crit one after another, it means you have an even higher crit chance (I know, WTF right?). And I explicitly told them that if I crit one after another, it means I'm lucky, and that the percentage doesn't change.

And in reply to Casawi, they TOLD me their jobs are "engineering" type job, which is VERY scary.
 

flxnimprtmscl

Diamond Member
Jan 30, 2003
7,962
1
0
Your friends are idiots. A sample size of 6 is so statistically insignificant it's laughable. Next time, just have them try it and flame them unmercifully when the results back you up.
 

tfinch2

Lifer
Feb 3, 2004
22,114
1
0
Your friends are wrong. With the law of large numbers, the probabilities will eventually approach 1/6. Your sample size has to be huge.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
51,486
4,036
126
Originally posted by: hypeMarked
Oh, I'm sure I made it clear what they mean and what I meant. They even use crit% from WoW to try and prove me wrong. One of them said that if you have 25% crit rating, it means that you're guaranteed a crit within 4 hits. The other chimes in and said if you crit one after another, it means you have an even higher crit chance (I know, WTF right?). And I explicitly told them that if I crit one after another, it means I'm lucky, and that the percentage doesn't change.

And in reply to Casawi, they TOLD me their jobs are "engineering" type job, which is VERY scary.
They sound more like management.
 

BurnItDwn

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
25,680
1,200
126
Your "friends" are obviously pulling your leg. Nobody could really be that stupid. They are joking like the 6000 year earth people. If they were dumb enough to really believe and assume that 1 in 6 chance means that in exactly 6 rolls you are guaranteed to get all the numbers then they would probably be in an institution.
 

torpid

Lifer
Sep 14, 2003
11,631
11
76
Originally posted by: BurnItDwn
Your "friends" are obviously pulling your leg. Nobody could really be that stupid. They are joking like the 6000 year earth people. If they were dumb enough to really believe and assume that 1 in 6 chance means that in exactly 6 rolls you are guaranteed to get all the numbers then they would probably be in an institution.
No, they'd be given free tickets to vegas and a free hotel room.
 

DLeRium

Lifer
Feb 19, 2001
20,158
20
81
Originally posted by: nakedfrog
Originally posted by: hypeMarked
Oh, I'm sure I made it clear what they mean and what I meant. They even use crit% from WoW to try and prove me wrong. One of them said that if you have 25% crit rating, it means that you're guaranteed a crit within 4 hits. The other chimes in and said if you crit one after another, it means you have an even higher crit chance (I know, WTF right?). And I explicitly told them that if I crit one after another, it means I'm lucky, and that the percentage doesn't change.

And in reply to Casawi, they TOLD me their jobs are "engineering" type job, which is VERY scary.
They sound more like management.
When you logically explain to someone that events are independent i.e. if you get 5 heads in a row, you're NOT more likely to get another head with the next roll, people will understand. Yet, it's this impulsive illogical part of us that ignores that. Like when Kobe goes 1/12 for the night, no one lets him shoot the 2nd half. So? Ok, there's the whole you're on fire deal with sports especialyl when it's not completely random, and then slot machines. What about poker when people draw for cards? It's completely random, but there's always this gut feeling. People play Jack 8 offsuit because it's their favorite cards. Does it mean you should fear them more because they'll flop a full house because they did this one time? No, but it just happens. People say idiotic things, but it doesn't mean they're stupid.

If you sit down and explain it to them and they still can't grasp that then yes they are retarded. Most logical mathy sciencey engineers will realize their mistake and correct themselves.
 

Eeezee

Diamond Member
Jul 23, 2005
9,923
0
0
You are correct. If you roll a die 6 times you have no guarantee of any particular face coming up at all.

Let's say you want a five. Each time you roll the dice, you get a 1/6 chance of seeing the five. Therefore the chance of not seeing the five is 5/6. Rolling six times, you have a 1/36 chance of not seeing the five, or a 35/36 chance of seeing the five. Clearly, rolling an infinite number of times will result in at least one five (in fact, rolling an infinite number of times will result in 1/6 of all dice rolls being a five).

Statistics fail in low samples. They work great with a large distrubtion; if you rolled 60,000 dice, you'd probably get about 10,000 of each face (with some small deviation)
 

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