Originally posted by: thepd7
Originally posted by: hypeMarked
Ok so I just had an argument with 2 of my buddies about probability. We were rolling dice and this talk comes up. They say if a face of a dice has a probability of 1/6, then if you roll 6 times, you will get what you want. I say, that is not necessarily true and that it's not how probability works. Then they start to flame me about statistics and crap like that. I remain calm and try not to hurt them, but I can't believe what the hell they are smoking. We're like > 20 years old.
Not how it works.
How it works: They are Independent events and you have to work the converse.
The probability of NOT throwing a particular number in 6 throws = (5/6)^6 = .335, or 33.5%. The probability of throwing a particular number in 6 tries is 1-.335 = .665, or 66.5%.
If they think they are right ask them to bet and give you 4:1 odds or better. Then clean house. You will win 40% of the time and when you win you will make 4x what you bet, that would be nice.
edit: start the betting high: unless they are REALLY REALLY stupid they will quickly realize you are kicking their ass. So say, hey I have my $20 against your $80 that I WON'T roll a 1 in the next 6 dice rolls.
It would actually be better for you if you DO rolla 1 the first time or two so you could keep them on the hook longer. I forsee money in your future.