President is going to be on TV any min to address N. Korea.

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Queasy
Defense Tech - Priceless picture inside.

3.58-3.7 gives you a couple hundred tons (not kilotons), which is pretty close in this business unless you're really math positive. The same equation, given the US estimate of 4.2, yields (pun intended) around a kiloton.

A plutonium device should produce a yield in the range of the 20 kilotons, like the one we dropped on Nagasaki. No one has ever dudded their first test of a simple fission device. North Korean nuclear scientists are now officially the worst ever.

According to a US Official, the blast only produced the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT.

it should say "Cwap" not "Crap"

 

[latino666]

I don't know why but since 9/11 the world reminds me of StarWars Episodes I-III. One big bad guy is pulling all the strings in order to make war and gain more power.

I know, I know I should put the pipe down but I don't want to.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: Chaotic42

Originally posted by: moshquerade

Originally posted by: InlineFive
Why must we have P&N carnage overflowing into OT?

we shouldn't.

this thread should be moved.

I don't know, this is a fairly important issue and P&N is a very dark hole. The occassional major issue in OT doesn't hurt. Besides, no one is forcing anyone to read it. If you didn't want to read it, you shouldn't have clicked on the thread.

:thumbsup:

 

[ElFenix]

Originally posted by: Queasy
Confederate Yankee Blog compares seismic data of Indian Nuclear test and N. Korea nuclear test. The N. Korean 'test' doesn't match the profile of a nuclear blast.

Of course, who knows what a "Dud" nuclear test looks like...they may have well tried and failed.

the nk activity is 10 minutes long

that indian graph might be 10 minutes long for the whole thing. if even that.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: Queasy
Confederate Yankee Blog compares seismic data of Indian Nuclear test and N. Korea nuclear test. The N. Korean 'test' doesn't match the profile of a nuclear blast.

Of course, who knows what a "Dud" nuclear test looks like...they may have well tried and failed.

the nk activity is 10 minutes long

that indian graph might be 10 minutes long for the whole thing. if even that.

I might be inclined to believe it was an earthquake, but supposedly they gave China 20 minutes notice... can we predict earthquakes 20 minutes in advance? I'm thinking no.

 

[Todd33]

I wonder how much conventional explosives it would take to pull off a fake test?

 

[Queasy]

For those wondering why the US has gone the diplomatic route with North Korea...this is probably why - Link

Stratfor has issued an important new analysis examining U.S. military options against North Korea. It concludes that "an overt military strike -- even one limited to cruise missiles -- is not in the cards. The consequences of even the most restrained attack could be devastating."

Stratfor points out that North Korea acquired a nuclear capability out of desire for regime preservation. This fact makes any military option perilous because "it is quite conceivable that Kim Jong-Il and his advisors -- or other factions -- might construe even the most limited military strikes against targets directly related to missile development or a nuclear program as an act threatening the regime, and therefore one that necessitates a fierce response." North Korea could retaliate using the 10,000 fortified artillery pieces currently trained on the South Korean capital of Seoul; it also has over 100 No-Dong missiles capable of hitting deep into South Korean territory or else targeting Japan. The artillery alone could be devastating for South Korea. As William C. Triplett II noted in his 2004 book Rogue State, North Korea is capable of firing "between 300,000 and 500,000 artillery shells per hour on the Seoul metropolitan area."

The options for countering this artillery fire, Stratfor notes, are not good. An air campaign aimed at dismantling the artillery would take a long time, and Seoul and the South Korean economy could be severely damaged in the interim. Moving troops into North Korea would be enormously costly: "Fifty years of concerted military fortification would make Hezbollah's preparations in southern Lebanon look like child's play. Moving U.S. and South Korean armor into this defensive belt could break it, but only with substantial casualties and without the certainty of success."

In war game scenarios, the defeat of North Korea requires its army to move into South Korea, where it "would be vulnerable to U.S. and South Korean airstrikes and superior ground maneuver and fire capabilities." But even in that best-case scenario, there are still substantial barriers. The war-gaming has assumed 30 days for the activation and mobilization of U.S. forces for a counterattack, with U.S. and South Korean forces maintaining an elastic defense in the interim. Stratfor notes three problems with this approach:

The first is that the elastic strategy would inevitably lead to the fall of Seoul and, if the 1950 model were a guide, a much deeper withdrawal along the Korean Peninsula. Second, the ability of the U.S. Army to deploy substantial forces to Korea within a 30-day window is highly dubious. Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom both required much longer periods of time. Finally, the U.S. Army is already fighting two major ground wars and is stretched to the breaking point. The rotation schedule is now so tight that units are already spending more time in Iraq than they are home between rotations. The idea that the U.S. Army has a multidivisional force available for deployment in South Korea would require a national mobilization not seen since the last Korean War.

The bottom line is that, in Stratfor's words, there doesn't appear to be "a satisfactory military solution."

 

[killface]

I posted this in the P&N thread. I feel like a such a whore for Stratfor.

Special Report: New North Korean Preparations Likely Just for Show
Summary

No sooner had the dust cleared from North Korea's first nuclear test Oct. 9 than speculation emerged about a second test. Although the North Koreans probably are capable of carrying out another test, Pyongyang can get almost as much political mileage by merely faking preparations for a second test.

Analysis

Within hours of North Korea's nuclear test Oct. 9, the head of Seoul's National Intelligence Service, Kim Seung Gyu, told South Korea's parliament that Pyongyang might be preparing a follow-on nuclear test at its Ponggye site in the country's northeast. Kim said increased activity, vehicles and personnel have been observed at the site, which was originally believed to be where the first North Korean nuclear test would take place.

The North's Oct. 9 test, now believed to have taken place in the Hwadae area, was about a 4.2 on the Richter scale, which would be consistent with more than 1,000 tons of high explosives, or one kiloton. Other estimates have put the blast at around 550 tons of high explosives. In either case, the blast was very small compared to past and current nuclear weapons.


A second nuclear test certainly is within North Korea's capabilities. It is widely believed that Pyongyang possesses six to eight nuclear devices and material enough to produce a few more.

The relatively small explosive yield of the test suggests that the North Korean device failed to function properly, though it could also mean that the North Koreans wanted to test their design on a smaller scale before conducting a full-scale test. If that is the case, Pyongyang, now confident in the effectiveness of its device, could be preparing a full-effect test.

The preparations at Ponggye cited by Kim, however, could be just for show. North Korea might be seeking to capitalize politically on the first test by making the world think a second test is imminent. This would be useful for keeping those countries that are most concerned with its nuclear capabilities -- the United States, Japan, South Korea and China -- off balance. With elections set for 2007 in South Korea and U.S. midterm elections only weeks away, the political magnitude of the North's test might exceed what was actually measured on the Richter scale.

This behavior is consistent with Pyongyang's strategy in dealing with the United States, Japan, South Korea and China, part of which is delaying a solution to the nuclear crisis for as long as possible. Keeping these countries off balance and jittery over the possibility of another test prevents them from acting decisively. The indecision keeps them from being unified in their response, and the resulting lack of unity gives North Korea time and leverage.

North Korea's intent with its first nuclear test was to shock the world and demonstrate that it has the will and capability to carry out its threats. That was accomplished. From Pyongyang's perspective, there is little need for a second test. Just about the only reason the North Koreans would have for conducting a second test is that they have constructed two types of nuclear devices -- plutonium and uranium -- and want to test them both. Given their meager resources, the North Koreans are not likely to waste material to carry out two explosions of the same type.

In this sense, the preparations at Ponggye are similar to the activity at North Korea's missile test sites in the days and weeks following the July 4 test launch of the Taepodong-2 missile. After the test launch, a second Taepodong-2 was set up in plain view of U.S. reconnaissance satellites. The speculation about follow-on launches that followed caused the same kind of political tension that Pyongyang is hoping to foster now. About a month later, the North Koreans took the missile down.

 

[marvdmartian]

Yeah, consider that this test is in the 500 ton range, and the bombs dropped on Japan at the end of WW2 were in the 15000 ton range, this thing either went pop-fizzle, or they purposely made it the size of a "backpack" nuke. Either way, the radionuclide data collected (or lack thereof) will tell us more in the coming days.

I just wish I'd never seen that movie, "Team America". Every time I think of Kim Jung Il, all I can do is think of the Kim puppet saying, "Herrrrrooooo!!!"

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: marvdmartian
Yeah, consider that this test is in the 500 ton range, and the bombs dropped on Japan at the end of WW2 were in the 15000 ton range, this thing either went pop-fizzle, or they purposely made it the size of a "backpack" nuke. Either way, the radionuclide data collected (or lack thereof) will tell us more in the coming days.

I just wish I'd never seen that movie, "Team America". Every time I think of Kim Jung Il, all I can do is think of the Kim puppet saying, "Herrrrrooooo!!!"

Yes. 13.ooo tons.

Quote:

At 08:15 (Hiroshima time), the Enola Gay dropped the nuclear bomb called "Little Boy" over the center of Hiroshima. It exploded about 600 meters (2,000 ft) above the city with a blast equivalent to about 13 kilotons of TNT (the U-235 weapon was considered very inefficient, with only 1.38% of its material fissioning),[10] instantly killing an estimated 70,000?80,000 people. Of this number, there were approximately 2,000 Japanese Americans who died from the blast and another 800-1,000 who lived on as hibakusha. As U.S. citizens, many of these Japanese Americans were attending school before the war and had been unable to leave Japan.[11] At least 11 U.S. POWs also died.[12] The radius of total destruction was about 1.6 km (1 mile), with resulting fires across 11.4 square km (4.4 square miles).[13] Infrastructure damage was estimated at 90% of Hiroshima's buildings being either damaged or completely destroyed.