Prediction: What will bring down Trump

[CPA]

I find it INCREDIBLY amusing that people think Trump can win.

Who is not voting for Trump:
Black people
Hispanics
Muslims
anyone with non-white skin
Women
50% of white people
all other democrats

Who is voting for Trump:
Angry already republican white men and perhaps a few really dumb women.

I think it will be the most lopsided loss against a GOP candidate ever.

I could probably beat Trump in a general election.

Please explain the virtual tie with Hillary then in the latest polls. Are pollsters purposely leaving out the groups you mentioned above.

 

[LegendKiller]

Please explain the virtual tie with Hillary then in the latest polls. Are pollsters purposely leaving out the groups you mentioned above.

The Hispanics at the post debate cnn group who all said they liked trump or Cruz even with their stance on illegals must have been either lying or plants.

 

[dullard]

Please explain the virtual tie with Hillary then in the latest polls. Are pollsters purposely leaving out the groups you mentioned above.

I've called him out on that post in other threads. It is an exaggeration. But don't make the mistake of going too far the other way either. In no point in this race has Trump even once made a blip above Clinton in an average of polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

And that is from one of the most right-winged poll websites out there.

Clinton is not in a large lead, and things can and will change over time. But, you can't just cherry pick one poll here or there and realistically think that it is a virtual tie either.

 

[LegendKiller]

I've called him out on that post in other threads. It is an exaggeration. But don't make the mistake of going too far the other way either. In no point in this race has Trump even once made a blip above Clinton in an average of polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

And that is from one of the most right-winged poll websites out there.

Clinton is not in a large lead, and things can and will change over time. But, you can't just cherry pick one poll here or there and realistically think that it is a virtual tie either.

Big difference there is thst he has been mostly fighting his own party and they haven't backed him nor do independents that might lean r, who don't like bush, Rubio or cruz, haven't gone over. I think it will expand.

 

[echo4747]

I do have to say that I'm am impressed by the results of Trumps campaign so far. He is winning and if you look at dollars spent per vote he is destroying the rest of the candidates. Very efficient and effective so far.

 

[fskimospy]

The Hispanics at the post debate cnn group who all said they liked trump or Cruz even with their stance on illegals must have been either lying or plants.

Yeah, Hispanics LOVE Trump. lol

 

[LegendKiller]

Yeah, Hispanics LOVE Trump. lol

Sample size, methodology (phone vs online/anon), geo distribution?

No republican is going to win much hispanic vote. But those who are republican may get there with trump more than you think.

 

[zinfamous]

Sample size, methodology (phone vs online/anon), geo distribution?

No republican is going to win much hispanic vote. But those who are republican may get there with trump more than you think.

He called an entire group of people--this group--rapists. And he "means it"

What kind of mental gymnastics do you warm up for every day to ignore the reality of the situation?

 

[Exophase]

Trump is just entertainment? What planet are you living on? Trump is within 3 points of hillary in general polls and gaining by the minute as hillary continues to self destruct with email scandal bombshells.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

You have the exact mindset of the GOP who didn't take him seriously.

Those polls are so weird.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich all beat Clinton. In almost all polls. Kasich by the highest margin! Kasich is quite possible the most electable candidate running, or at least was, but few are voting for him in the primaries. Sanders also beats all of them, except Rubio who he is basically tied with.

The only one still running who is an obvious loser at every level is Carson.

Trump is almost definitely going to win the primaries unless two in the running drop out and fast. Probably more likely three in the running. He's riding the luck of the rest of the GOP being so divided and too stubborn and short sighted to unite against him. And then he's most likely going to lose the general election.

Imagine how different all of this would be if America had a voting system like STV. I wonder what it would take to actually see a credible push for this.

 

[dullard]

Trump is within 3 points of hillary in general polls and gaining by the minute
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Regarding the "gaining by the minute" remark, did you even look at your own link. I'll post Trump's best moments from your link.

Sept 14, 2015: Trump 44%, Clinton 45%.
Oct 17, 2015: Trump 44%, Clinton 45%.
Dec 4, 2015: Trump 44%, Clinton 44%.
Jan 16, 2016: Trump 43%, Clinton 44%.
Feb 18, 2016: Trump 43%, Clinton 45%.

These are the times that Trump got as close as Clinton as he has ever been. Now, what does the trend look like? Um, I see virtually no trend there. Today he is about in the same place as he was 5 months ago.

How is that gaining by the minute?

Yes, there is statistical noise. There are times when Clinton is far ahead based on how the noise worked out in any individual poll. But, the trend has been flat. Clinton is in the 44% to 49% range for 5 months. Trump is in the 41% to 44% range for 5 months.

 

[fskimospy]

Sample size, methodology (phone vs online/anon), geo distribution?

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/pa...news-national-survey-of-hispanic-voters/1970/

Sample size of 1,200, phone poll comprising both cell phones and landlines, national random digit dialing. Basically everything you want from a poll.

No republican is going to win much hispanic vote. But those who are republican may get there with trump more than you think.

I agree with you that Republicans generally fare poorly with the Hispanic vote. It just so happens however that Trump fares much, much, MUCH worse than any other Republican candidate when it comes to Hispanics. They completely loathe him. 81% of hispanics have a negative opinion of him with a full 72% having a 'very unfavorable' opinion of him, giving him a net negative 62% favorability rating. In contrast, the next least liked person was Ted Cruz with negative 6%.

I guess it is likely that they will 'be there with Trump more than I think' as it is nearly impossible for them to be 'there with Trump' less, lol. But yeah, keep telling us how much Hispanics love that racist shitbag.

 

[fskimospy]

Those polls are so weird.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich all beat Clinton. In almost all polls. Kasich by the highest margin! Kasich is quite possible the most electable candidate running, or at least was, but few are voting for him in the primaries. Sanders also beats all of them, except Rubio who he is basically tied with.

The only one still running who is an obvious loser at every level is Carson.

Trump is almost definitely going to win the primaries unless two in the running drop out and fast. Probably more likely three in the running. He's riding the luck of the rest of the GOP being so divided and too stubborn and short sighted to unite against him. And then he's most likely going to lose the general election.

Imagine how different all of this would be if America had a voting system like STV. I wonder what it would take to actually see a credible push for this.

The general election polls are weird mostly because they have almost zero predictive power at this point. As I mentioned before there were polls showing Rick Fucking Santorum beating Obama around this time before the 2012 election. Do you really believe Rick Santorum ever had a chance?

In all honesty you are better off reading tea leaves than reading general election polls right now in order to determine who would be a better candidate.

 

[Exophase]

The general election polls are weird mostly because they have almost zero predictive power at this point. As I mentioned before there were polls showing Rick Fucking Santorum beating Obama around this time before the 2012 election. Do you really believe Rick Santorum ever had a chance?

In all honesty you are better off reading tea leaves than reading general election polls right now in order to determine who would be a better candidate.

In February 2012 Rick Santorum was not anywhere close to beating Obama in the polls as a broad average. See for yourself.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html

You can find two Feb 2012 where Santorum narrowly beats Obama, vs many others where he loses. We're not looking at single polls here, we're looking at averages of several over big periods of time.

You keep bringing up Rick Santorum and Ron Paul as counter examples but so far the polls have been pretty inline with the primaries. I think you're being way too dismissive of them.

 

[fskimospy]

In February 2012 Rick Santorum was not anywhere close to beating Obama in the polls as a broad average. See for yourself.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html

You can find two Feb 2012 where Santorum narrowly beats Obama, vs many others where he loses. We're not looking at single polls here, we're looking at averages of several over big periods of time.

Even those averages over long periods of time are nearly worthless. For example, fivethirtyeight lists the AVERAGE absolute error of general election polling averages a year out to be 10.6 points. That's huge. Now it's only 9 months out instead of a year, but it's not that much different. Polls don't mean much until the conventions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-year-out-ignore-general-election-polls/

So again, the reason the polls are confusing is because they are shit.

You keep bringing up Rick Santorum and Ron Paul as counter examples but so far the polls have been pretty inline with the primaries. I think you're being way too dismissive of them.

The polls have been inline with the primaries? I don't understand what this means. If you're talking about accuracy of primary polling for the primaries that have happened so far that's an entirely different thing than general election polling accuracy right now.

 

[flexy]

Maybe not during the primary but surely in the general

The Stern tapes

I've listened to Howard Stern since 97. Trump has been a frequent guest and has talked a lot of shit especially about women. For the average joe, fine but a lot of people will be put off by these conversations of a now GOP leader for President. I've wondered about this for a while and I heard parts of a clip on CNN today.

I don't know why this stuff didn't come out in other GOP candidates oppo. There's a treasure trove of recordings. The other campaigns are guilty of mal-practice.

If foul language, open insults and general primitive-ity and stupidity would deter his supporters HE WOULDN'T EVEN BE THERE WHERE HE IS NOW.

You could dig out some old tapes with the must disgusting language, slurs, whatever.....I guarantee you that none of those "smart" Trump voters would change their opinion. They vote him BECAUSE of those things.

When he said that he could go onto 5th Avenue and shoot someone and it wouldn't hurt him a bit - there is MUCH more truth to this figure of speech than you might think.

** As for the support `by the GOP: The GOP/Reps are pushed into a corner. They KNOW that they can only win with Trump. For them, Trump might still be the better alternative as compared to a guaranteed Dem win. With Trump there is still the slight(est) chance they could win the elections.

 

[Fern]

I think Trump is still an unknown. He's never run for office before, he's completely unvetted. God only knows what Clinton and the Dems will dig up on him or try to criticize him for.

Fern

 

[SP33Demon]

If foul language, open insults and general primitive-ity and stupidity would deter his supporters HE WOULDN'T EVEN BE THERE WHERE HE IS NOW.

You could dig out some old tapes with the must disgusting language, slurs, whatever.....I guarantee you that none of those "smart" Trump voters would change their opinion. They vote him BECAUSE of those things.

When he said that he could go onto 5th Avenue and shoot someone and it wouldn't hurt him a bit - there is MUCH more truth to this figure of speech than you might think.

** As for the support `by the GOP: The GOP/Reps are pushed into a corner. They KNOW that they can only win with Trump. For them, Trump might still be the better alternative as compared to a guaranteed Dem win. With Trump there is still the slight(est) chance they could win the elections.

Your last paragraph is completely wrong. Rubio (especially) and Cruz are beating Hillary in head to head:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

However, I think once Rubio and Cruz endorse Trump you're going to see a nice boost over Hillary (even after she gets Bern's supporters) since the vote is split between more candidates on the GOP side. Also, with Christie's endorsement today we should see a slight boost for Trump vs Hillary.

 

[zinfamous]

funny to see some of you guys falling in step behind a liberal SJW like Trump.

The bitter tears of your disappointment will taste sweet.

 

[zinfamous]

I think Trump is still an unknown. He's never run for office before, he's completely unvetted. God only knows what Clinton and the Dems will dig up on him or try to criticize him for.

Fern

Pretty easy.

Hillary: "Yeah, so like Trump is one of our best friends. He's donated many, many millions of dollars to my various campaigns and the Clinton foundation [hands over the books]. Chelsea and Ivanka are besties--we all summer together every year."


/Trump supporters commit mass suicide.