Potomac Tuesday: What's your prediction?

[mflacy]

Pollster's numbers averaged from last week's surveys:

Virginia

Dems: Clinton 37% / Obama 55%
Reps: Huckabee 28% / McCain 52% / Paul 8%

Maryland

Dems: Clinton 34% / Obama 54%
Reps: Huckabee 23% / McCain 53% / Paul 10%

D.C.: Not Listed

What is everyone's prediction for today? Obviously McCain and Obama look like predetermined winners, but by how much?

Based on the amount of money spent in the area, I think Obama will pull better numbers than expected but not an extremely decisive blow. 60% to 65% in Virginia & Maryland and somewhat higher in DC.

I think Huck might pull better numbers than expected as well, but still lose by at least 10% to 15% to McCain in that area.

 

[nageov3t]

McCain and Obama both have their respective nominations won in all but name.

 

[jonks]

Those numbers are probably about right. The important question is the delegate split. MSNBC was guessing VA, which has a concentrated block of Obama voters, might not be much of a net for BO. He won by about 20 points in Alabama but the delegates split equally. It seems likely he'll get enough to pull ahead in total delegates for the first time though, which is a big landmark.

 

[fskimospy]

I PREDICT THE RON PAUL REVOLUTION.

 

[Fern]

Another Obama sweep.

Followed closely by another Clinton claim of victimhood to draw attention away from her loss.

Fern

 

[Moonbeam]

I predict that I will know the approximate results later today.

 

[clamum]

Originally posted by: loki8481
McCain and Obama both have their respective nominations won in all but name.

Yep I agree.

 

[techs]

Obama will sweep and pull into the delegate lead.
However, on March 4 when Clinton wins Texas and Ohio and regains the lead, Obama's momentum will be over and in April Clinton will win Pennsyvania guaranteeing her more delegates than Obama.
This actually will make people think Clinton fought back and won and do wonders for her chances against old man McCain.

 

[shiner]

Originally posted by: techs
Obama will sweep and pull into the delegate lead.
However, on March 4 when Clinton wins Texas and Ohio and regains the lead, Obama's momentum will be over and in April Clinton will win Pennsyvania guaranteeing her more delegates than Obama.
This actually will make people think Clinton fought back and won and do wonders for her chances against old man McCain.

The worst thing the Democratic Party could do to themselves is to nominate Clinton.

The best thing for the Republican Party is for the Democrats to nominate Clinton.

See how that works?

 

[nageov3t]

the democrats elected their candidate in 2004 based on electability and it didn't work out so well.

I wish people on all sides could just vote for who they think would do the best job and leave all this personal attack crap at the door.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: techs
Obama will sweep and pull into the delegate lead.
However, on March 4 when Clinton wins Texas and Ohio and regains the lead, Obama's momentum will be over and in April Clinton will win Pennsyvania guaranteeing her more delegates than Obama.
This actually will make people think Clinton fought back and won and do wonders for her chances against old man McCain.

is this the bargaining stage?

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: techs
Obama will sweep and pull into the delegate lead.
However, on March 4 when Clinton wins Texas and Ohio and regains the lead, Obama's momentum will be over and in April Clinton will win Pennsyvania guaranteeing her more delegates than Obama.
As has been noted elsewhere, Texas has weird rules. Basically the Black districts have more delegates to award than the Latino districts. Doesn't bode well for HRC. She could garner the majority of votes yet come ouut a loser in the delegate count.

She's strong in Ohio, but if Edwards endorses Obama it could be over for HRC.

This actually will make people think Clinton fought back and won and do wonders for her chances against old man McCain.
She's already played the "comeback kid" card. Having to rely on that twice in one election sounds like a loser to me. Same with her "firewall" strategy at this late date. Smells like defeat.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: techs
Obama will sweep and pull into the delegate lead.
However, on March 4 when Clinton wins Texas and Ohio and regains the lead, Obama's momentum will be over and in April Clinton will win Pennsyvania guaranteeing her more delegates than Obama.
This actually will make people think Clinton fought back and won and do wonders for her chances against old man McCain.

is this the bargaining stage?

Text :laugh:

 

[mflacy]

The first poll closes in about an hour and a half.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: techs
Obama will sweep and pull into the delegate lead.
However, on March 4 when Clinton wins Texas and Ohio and regains the lead, Obama's momentum will be over and in April Clinton will win Pennsyvania guaranteeing her more delegates than Obama.
This actually will make people think Clinton fought back and won and do wonders for her chances against old man McCain.

You're as delusional as the Paulbots, techs :laugh:

Her strategy now seems to be modeled after Rudolph Giuliani. Ignore a whole bunch of smaller states, and focus on 1 or 2 larger ones. It didn't work for him, and it'll fail miserably for her too.

 

[Pabster]

Early Exit Poll Data From Potomac Tuesday

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: techs
Obama will sweep and pull into the delegate lead.
However, on March 4 when Clinton wins Texas and Ohio and regains the lead, Obama's momentum will be over and in April Clinton will win Pennsyvania guaranteeing her more delegates than Obama.
This actually will make people think Clinton fought back and won and do wonders for her chances against old man McCain.

Texas and Ohio will split nearly 50/50 no matter who wins. In Texas Clinton could run up the popular vote, but lose the delegate count. Texas dems have choosen a unequal proportionment for delegates, and this favors Obama. Districts hes strong in have more delegates.

 

[jman19]

I'm shocked to say it, because I wasn't sure it would get to this point, but I think at the end of today we'll see that Hillary is back on her heels and playing catch-up to a candidate who has all the momentum.

 

[Pabster]

Drudge, Breaking:

Exit Polls Show 2:1 Obama Over Clinton MD,VA; 3:1 Obama Over Clinton D.C.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: Pabster
Drudge, Breaking:

Exit Polls Show 2:1 Obama Over Clinton MD,VA; 3:1 Obama Over Clinton D.C.

When the talking heads discuss DC tonight, will they all be racists for noting the reason behind the drubbing?

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: sirjonk

Originally posted by: Pabster
Drudge, Breaking:

Exit Polls Show 2:1 Obama Over Clinton MD,VA; 3:1 Obama Over Clinton D.C.

When the talking heads discuss DC tonight, will they all be racists for noting the reason behind the drubbing?

What that DC is made up of blacks, young people, and politicians. Where the politicians don't vote in DC.

The majority just happen to be black.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: sirjonk
When the talking heads discuss DC tonight, will they all be racists for noting the reason behind the drubbing?

No, I expect they'll be talking about how well Obama did amongst white voters.

CNN's exit poll data showed his voters 49/43 WHITE in VA, and just a few points more black than white in MD. Very even split.

 

[Pabster]

Virginia called for Obama.

 

[Pabster]

Numbers in Virginia show Obama won women 58/42. He also captured 48% of the white vote (versus 51% for Hillary).

Clearly the coalition is building.

 

[nullzero]

Wow I am impressed by the amount Obama is winning.... I think we may hear a hillary conceding speech soon.