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Polls return to pre-convention levels with Obama having a 2 point lead overall

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Originally posted by: lupi
Originally posted by: retrospooty
Originally posted by: lupi
So we have a thread full of not another poll/pro-mccain thread, oh no another bias thread, can we be more partisan, can you suck up a little more etc...


Are most all yall truly idiots to that degree, have you missed the, what's a word for greater than predominant but less than absolute, amount of traffic generated for the bho campaign around here recently; a vast amount coming from posters or sites that one day would like to achieve a status of only being called biased and not full blown please pour me another koolaid glass while I bow before you my lord hacks.
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I have been regularly visiting this forum for the past 6 months and one thing I have definetely noticed... Lupi - you are not unbiased. You are one of the most biased to the right people in this forum.

If you just once in a while said some unbiased comments your post above would ahve some creedence.
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Then you haven't read enough threads. There have been times when I've gotten the label of all major political divisions in a single thread.
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I read this thread 3x, but only once each nice triple post... 😉

Anyhow, I have read enough to see you are extremely one sided... I think even the die hard republicans on this forum would agree with me there.
 
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
It's called a convention "bounce". It will be gone by next weeks polls and Obama will be back on top.
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I wouldn't be so sure about that...Obama lost momentum coming out of the grueling campaign season, and the anticipation of his VP pick flopped with the rather unexciting selection of Biden.

Then McCain comes out of nowhere with a surprising VP pick, is managing to motivate the Republican base, AND is also waging a rather compelling argument that he, and not Obama, is the agent of change.

The Democrats definitely have a problem...attempts to equate McCain to Bush are not working...both camps are claiming the change message...and ironically enough, McCain is running his campaign as a challenger and not a member of the incumbent party.

Honestly, I think it will remain close until the very end, and not surprising, the same battleground states will probably once again be in play.
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Someone who gets it.
 
I think underdog is a good thing when it comes to polls.
Mccain wanted to be just that. If Obama is now that, look out Mccain.
If I remember, Kerry was up too at the end. So much for that.

What one needs to remember are the mass of new democratic voters coming online.
You know, the ones that dont get the "polling calls".

I'd love to see Mccain ahead in the polls, for Obama's sake. 😉
 
Originally posted by: Stoneburner
The polls are all over the damn place and they are national. Let's see what the state polling says. I don't trust the CNN poll either really, they have been odd. In fact, almost every national polling firm has had a major outlier. I think Gallup may have overbitten, whereas CNN is underreporting McCain's surge.

This is a convention BOUNCE regardless.
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Polls are gonna disagree because of the methodologies the polling firms use to refine their results. "Likely Voter" type polls are considerd better indicators than regular polls, however when it's all over I think we'll see some problems by the polling firms in accurately gaging for those with only cell phones, and for the turn-out among the young and black voters (among everyone for that matter).

Bolded sentence above - Yes, exactly! While the national polls may be good for indicating trends, state-by-state polls are a much better indicator of who may win the election. State -by-state polls give a better indication of Electoral College results, and that's how the President is elected.

I saw Chuch Todd going through projected EC results earlier today (state-by-state), Obamal is ahead by a small margin (228 vs 200 IIRC). As usual, the swing states will determine the Presidential contest.

Fern
 
Chuck Todd previously wrote that the number to watch is not head to head, but how percentage of voters who think he will follow Bush's policies has changed.

Did he say anything about that?


edit: what I found on the website:
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

"The USA Today/Gallup poll, as we mentioned earlier, has some very good news for the McCain folks, as it shows the Republican nominee getting a sizable bounce.

But here's one fact from the poll that might give McCain some pause -- the Bush number is largely unchanged.

In this poll, 63% of voters expressed concern that that McCain would pursue policies that are too similar to what George W. Bush has pursued. In the previous survey, conducted from Aug. 30-31, 64% expressed that concern; in the Aug. 21-23 survey, 66% said so." Link
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Chuck Todd previously wrote that the number to watch is not head to head, but how percentage of voters who think he will follow Bush's policies has changed.
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Critical to McCain's campaign is his ability to distance himself from Bush, and central to Obama's campaign is ensuring that voters continue to associate McCain to Bush.

Will be interesting to see how that perception shifts now with the RNC behind us, and the debates about to begin.

Personally, I don't think the Dems should be running against Bush's record...they couldn't defeat Bush when he was the sitting President, and I don't think they can beat McCain by running the anti-Bush message.
 
Was listening to an interview with the Rasmussan guy again today, seems like the Palin pick and RNC convention has had a pretty wide effect on the race. He said that polling says the dems are running scared for a reason as there has been some reverse on the former hillary supporters that said they would support mccain falling back to BHO. Also mentioned that this was the first republican that had been ahead in the polls this late in the race since regan. Looks like it's gonna be full of fun ahead for the final 2 months.
 
We all know PRofjohn is mildly retarded, but why is everybody else so concerned wth McCain getting a convention bounce? I don't understand, bounces are the rules, not the exception.

And the only state result we've seen so far was fairly good for Obama.
 
Originally posted by: Stoneburner
We all know PRofjohn is mildly retarded, but why is everybody else so concerned wth McCain getting a convention bounce? I don't understand, bounces are the rules, not the exception.

And the only state result we've seen so far was fairly good for Obama.
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I think everyone was expecting Obama to get a bigger bounce than he did, and everyone was expecting the GOP convention to be some torpid affair after which McCain wouldn't get a significant bounce.
 
Originally posted by: loki8481
Originally posted by: Stoneburner
We all know PRofjohn is mildly retarded, but why is everybody else so concerned wth McCain getting a convention bounce? I don't understand, bounces are the rules, not the exception.

And the only state result we've seen so far was fairly good for Obama.
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I think everyone was expecting Obama to get a bigger bounce than he did, and everyone was expecting the GOP convention to be some torpid affair after which McCain wouldn't get a significant bounce.
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Take away Palin and it was a torpid affair. They needed a gimmick and Palin was a perfect one. Without her McCains Poll numbers probably would have suffered because he really doesn't inspire at all. Let's see what happens once the sheen is gone away from Pablum
 
?This election is not about issues. This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates,? McCain campaign manager, Rick Davis.

Image and Personality. That is what McCain's camp is running on.

And we all thought Obama wanted to be the "Rock Star"

:roll:
 
It was ironic seeing Fred Thompson condemn Obama for reading speeches off a teleprompter and for being a celebrity given that Thompson was a celebrity reading off a teleprompter.
 
Originally posted by: umbrella39
Still not taking any of that $$$ action eh PJ. Your posts are as hollow as the candidates you support.
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Probably because he got burned on the '06 congressional elections ....
 
Originally posted by: CPA
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
It's called a convention "bounce". It will be gone by next weeks polls and Obama will be back on top.
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I wouldn't be so sure about that...Obama lost momentum coming out of the grueling campaign season, and the anticipation of his VP pick flopped with the rather unexciting selection of Biden.

Then McCain comes out of nowhere with a surprising VP pick, is managing to motivate the Republican base, AND is also waging a rather compelling argument that he, and not Obama, is the agent of change.

The Democrats definitely have a problem...attempts to equate McCain to Bush are not working...both camps are claiming the change message...and ironically enough, McCain is running his campaign as a challenger and not a member of the incumbent party.

Honestly, I think it will remain close until the very end, and not surprising, the same battleground states will probably once again be in play.
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Someone who gets it.
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Pretty much. Although I think honestly the dems haven't tried very hard in the national media yet to equate McCain to bush. Well, they haven't been driving it home nearly as hard as they could be.

They need to try to drive that home, along with making McCain look like a flip flopper on issues.

I think Palin is still an unknown factor at this point as to whether she will help or hurt McCain, as well.
 
Originally posted by: Jack Flash
What? A rich old white guy is favored to win the presidential election? You don't say!!
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What? A BHO bot using "white" in a deragatory manner? You dont say!
 
Originally posted by: umbrella39
Still not taking any of that $$$ action eh PJ. Your posts are as hollow as the candidates you support.
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Doesn't matter.

That hollow candidate supports everything PJ and the Republican controlled America stands for:

Anti-Abortion
Anti-Gay
Anti-Science
Anti-Fiscal Responsibilty
Anti-Peace
Anti-America
 
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Originally posted by: Jack Flash
What? A rich old white guy is favored to win the presidential election? You don't say!!
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What? A BHO bot using "white" in a deragatory manner? You dont say!
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Evidence that Barack Obama referred to as "BHO" is meant to be derogatory. Thanks! 🙂
 
He was tied with Obama before the conventions. So basically his net gain = zero.

Complete turnaround? :laugh:
 
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