Las Vegas has a HUGE real estate bubble... its amazing houses have gone up like 200% in the last 2 years...
Triumph
Lifer
- Oct 9, 1999
- 15,031
- 14
- 81
here's why i'm not buying in this area. if i were to buy, i'd like to keep it and rent it out if i choose to move out of the area. unfortunately, i couldn't rent for anywhere near what my mortgage payment would be. on a $325k, interest only loan with 10% down, my monthly mortgage would be ~1800. you couldn't rent a 2 bedroom townhome for that much around here. more like 1200-1500 depending on location. bump up to a 30 year fixed and my mortgage would be $2200. it doesn't make economic sense unless you plan on being here for a long time. otherwise, if you move you won't be able to buy elsewhere because you will have a huge debt to income ratio.
mugs
Lifer
- Apr 29, 2003
- 48,920
- 46
- 91
This really pisses me off, I'm getting screwed at both ends. When I graduate from college the job market sucks, and now I'm looking at buying a house in August, and I'm bound to get screwed by a bubble burst. I've been watching for a while hoping something would happen before we buy a house, but it isn't happening. Houses do seem to be on the market a lot longer aroung here now... some as long as 6 months. So either I rent and piss my money away (and with my luck the bubble will never burst and houses will become less and less affordable), or I could buy a house and watch my equity go down the drain. Sucks.
apoppin
Lifer
remember it is a cycle . . . . it took me many years to get into the SoCali housing market but was ultimately worth it and very satisfying . . . i bought a very affordable house in an excellent growing location that i really like.
Above-all-else, SAVE your money and be READY for that "hot deal".. . . 'flexibility' can't hurt either (you may not get that perfect 1st house but make sure you can AFFORD what you get)
When the bubble bursts in some areas, there will be big loosers . . . and those with the savy and cash to pick up the 'pieces' very cheap.
Originally posted by: apoppin
remember it is a cycle . . . . it took me many years to get into the SoCali housing market but was ultimately worth it and very satisfying . . . i bought a very affordable house in an excellent growing location that i really like.
Above-all-else, SAVE your money and be READY for that "hot deal".. . . 'flexibility' can't hurt either (you may not get that perfect 1st house but make sure you can AFFORD what you get)
When the bubble bursts in some areas, there will be big loosers . . . and those with the savy and cash to pick up the 'pieces' very cheap.
True. Don't be like the idiots that buy stocks at their peak, then sell as soon as they start to drop.
Those that are hurt the most will be morons like the woman on the plane to Las Vegas who was bragging to her friend that she had just leveraged herself into a house that she could barely afford, and would be paying off for thirty years.
I'll be shocked if the bubble didn't burst.
Seriously, the average housing price in California has increased probably 20% annually for the past few years.
Now, in the Bay Area, they are calling $800k and below houses LOW PRICES, and it's hard to find $500k houses, WTF!!!
My salary hasn't even grown 10%.
It's simply lots of rich people playing the real estate market like stock market.
As rates go up, buying power goes down.
Players will begin lowering their prices, buyers know they can cut offer prices, thus pricing will come down.
How much it will come down is unknown though.
I hope it come down end of this year or beginning of next year so I can buy one finally.
Seriously, the average housing price in California has increased probably 20% annually for the past few years.
Now, in the Bay Area, they are calling $800k and below houses LOW PRICES, and it's hard to find $500k houses, WTF!!!
My salary hasn't even grown 10%.
It's simply lots of rich people playing the real estate market like stock market.
As rates go up, buying power goes down.
Players will begin lowering their prices, buyers know they can cut offer prices, thus pricing will come down.
How much it will come down is unknown though.
I hope it come down end of this year or beginning of next year so I can buy one finally.
This real estate bubble you speak of, can you tell me when some more land was created such that the supply/demand curve changed?
apoppin
Lifer
Sure, (for e.g.) they are "creating" land in the Coachella Valley by reclaiming the Desert and/or agricultural lands . . . .
. . . . and the supply/demand curve changes when it became "desirable" to live full time there (i.e. Indian Gaming has been a HUGE draw and the population of the valley is expected to more than double within 6 years).
It's too expensive to rent now. I'm in Northern Virginia, near DC and over half my monthly paycheque goes to rent. I'm actually saving less money now that I'm working full time than when I was working part time as a student in the South.
radioouman
Diamond Member
- Nov 4, 2002
- 8,632
- 0
- 0
I won't be screwed. I locked in a low interest rate last year in an area that isn't in a bubble. I feel confident that my monthly payment will only get easier to make as my salary increases, and I bought a house that is large enough that it will be comfortable with 2 kids.
Originally posted by: apoppin
(i.e. Indian Gaming has been a HUGE draw and the population of the valley is expected to more than double within 6 years).
OOOOOOOOOOO you mean it's legal to hunt indians again???
SaigonK
Diamond Member
Here is what I know...
My parents built their 3 bedroom 2 bathroom cape 10 years ago fro $89,000
They just got ir refinanced to pay off all debt and it was appraised at $169,000
The house next door that has been vacent for 3+ years was attempted to be auctioned...they only got an offer of $70,000 two and a half years ago.
The just auctioned it off again last November and someone bought it for $116,000.
That person (or persons) is now trying to sell that same home for $159,000 (as listed by the realtor)
I have seen the home, it isnt worth anywhere near that much!
My parents built their 3 bedroom 2 bathroom cape 10 years ago fro $89,000
They just got ir refinanced to pay off all debt and it was appraised at $169,000
The house next door that has been vacent for 3+ years was attempted to be auctioned...they only got an offer of $70,000 two and a half years ago.
The just auctioned it off again last November and someone bought it for $116,000.
That person (or persons) is now trying to sell that same home for $159,000 (as listed by the realtor)
I have seen the home, it isnt worth anywhere near that much!
Squisher
Lifer
- Aug 17, 2000
- 21,204
- 66
- 91
If I can sell my house shortly before the bubble bursts, I'll be ok. I've always been a fan of fixed rates.
But, if I'm a big dummy and buy a house before I sell my old one and the old one doesn't sell. I'll be screwed.
Nothing like $3,000 of monthly housing costs.
But, if I'm a big dummy and buy a house before I sell my old one and the old one doesn't sell. I'll be screwed.
Nothing like $3,000 of monthly housing costs.
apoppin
Lifer
Originally posted by: DocHolliday
Originally posted by: apoppin
(i.e. Indian Gaming has been a HUGE draw and the population of the valley is expected to more than double within 6 years).
OOOOOOOOOOO you mean it's legal to hunt indians again???
you have it backwards . . .
. . . it's now legal for them to hunt us.
:roll:
Originally posted by: apoppin
Sure, (for e.g.) they are "creating" land in the Coachella Valley by reclaiming the Desert and/or agricultural lands . . . .
. . . . and the supply/demand curve changes when it became "desirable" to live full time there (i.e. Indian Gaming has been a HUGE draw and the population of the valley is expected to more than double within 6 years).
They aren't creating more land, they are altering the characteristics of existing undesierable land to make it more desireable. This is economically viable because currently desireable land has excessive demand and has increased the value of the property.
My post was in regard to people who think there is some sort of bubble that is going to pop and suddenly real estate is going to drop 50% in value. It isn't going to happen, there is simply too much demand for real estate for that to occur. It might be possible if the US eliminated immigration and had a declining population but we don't and as long as we are growing the demand for real estate will continue to increase. What that means is the most desireable areas will increase in price the less desireable areas will increase in price because the people priced out of the desireable areas will move to the less desireable locations. But either way the price isn't going to decline substantiably in the desireable areas.
If the economy of this country goes south in a major way there would be a small year or year decline in price becuase demand would decrease because people didn't have money to purchase but short of that there is no bubble so stop talking about it like it's a bloody given. Although I do encourage those of you that think there is a bubble to keep waiting, those of us that purchase need someone to rent to.
apoppin
Lifer
Originally posted by: rahvin
Originally posted by: apoppin
Sure, (for e.g.) they are "creating" land in the Coachella Valley by reclaiming the Desert and/or agricultural lands . . . .
. . . . and the supply/demand curve changes when it became "desirable" to live full time there (i.e. Indian Gaming has been a HUGE draw and the population of the valley is expected to more than double within 6 years).
They aren't creating more land, they are altering the characteristics of existing undesierable land to make it more desireable. This is economically viable because currently desireable land has excessive demand and has increased the value of the property.
My post was in regard to people who think there is some sort of bubble that is going to pop and suddenly real estate is going to drop 50% in value. It isn't going to happen, there is simply too much demand for real estate for that to occur. It might be possible if the US eliminated immigration and had a declining population but we don't and as long as we are growing the demand for real estate will continue to increase. What that means is the most desireable areas will increase in price the less desireable areas will increase in price because the people priced out of the desireable areas will move to the less desireable locations. But either way the price isn't going to decline substantiably in the desireable areas.
If the economy of this country goes south in a major way there would be a small year or year decline in price becuase demand would decrease because people didn't have money to purchase but short of that there is no bubble so stop talking about it like it's a bloody given. Although I do encourage those of you that think there is a bubble to keep waiting, those of us that purchase need someone to rent to.
reclaiming unusuable land IS "creating" (formerly UNavailable) land for real estate
There is literally hundreds of square miles of "empty" space in the USA . . . most of it is NOT "desirable" from a real estate POV - yet.
Originally posted by: apoppin
reclaiming unusuable land IS "creating" (formerly UNavailable) land for real estate
There is literally hundreds of square miles of "empty" space in the USA . . . most of it is NOT "desirable" from a real estate POV - yet.
Wow you have weird definitions of creation then. Creating land is like what they did for the last airport in japan where they dumped millions of tons of dirt into the ocean and created an island. That is creating land. People moving to and improving existing land is not creating land, it's just improvment of existing land that is a result of all the highest desireable land being currently occupied.
Real estate prices in cali and new york and all the highest price real estate markets will drop when there is a disaster that makes people not want to live there anymore. So if you are hopping for this "bubble" to pop maybe you should be writting letters to North Korea encouraging them to nuke San francisco as that would probably cause real estate prices to drop substantially.
apoppin
Lifer
not really . . . it is still land "created" for sale - formerly UNavailable [whether covered by water or sand]Originally posted by: rahvin
Originally posted by: apoppin
reclaiming unusuable land IS "creating" (formerly UNavailable) land for real estate
There is literally hundreds of square miles of "empty" space in the USA . . . most of it is NOT "desirable" from a real estate POV - yet.
Wow you have weird definitions of creation then. Creating land is like what they did for the last airport in japan where they dumped millions of tons of dirt into the ocean and created an island. . . .
Real estate prices in cali and new york and all the highest price real estate markets will drop when there is a disaster that makes people not want to live there anymore. . . .
. . . that's why created is in quotes - look at the alternate definitions of create in the dictionary . . . mine's not so weird
. . . and forget the nuke . . . SF is long overdue for its 9.0
___________
My electric bill is close to that.
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