::Poll:: How fvcked are you going to be when the real estate bubble bursts?

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CTrain

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2001
4,940
0
0
Originally posted by: HappyPuppy
Originally posted by: SampSon
Originally posted by: HappyPuppy
Originally posted by: SampSon
Originally posted by: Triumph
It's happened before, and it'll happen again. I've talked to coworkers who bought in the late 80's/early 90's when the market was doing this same thing. Crazy growth with no end in site. After it burst, alot of them were upside down on their townhouses/condos. Being upside down on a mortgage is not a good position to be in! It wasn't until the last couple of years that they recovered. And these guys are in the northern Virginia/DC metro and northern New Jersey/NY metro areas. Not exactly what you'd call economically depressed areas.

Right now it will go on, at least in this area, because there are jobs and there is a demand for housing. But it will reach a point where starting salaries will have to be way higher than what they are now to attract people to the area. As it is, young professionals making good money are stretching their budgets to the absolute maximum (50% of gross income spent on the house), just to get into the smallest houses available. Unless salaries increase by 20% a year, something has got to give.
The savings and loan scandals and price fixing practices of lenders/appraisers made that happen.
It won't be that bad again.



Another kiddie who hasn't studied the history of real estate.
Nope, never studied the history of real estate when I was in school for my state appraiser and realtors license.

Sure the bubble will pop in the same areas it has in the past. The same thing will happen with thoes areas in the future too. Thoes areas represent a small minority of the country. Focusing on them has no point.

But, feel free to endow me with all your illustrious real estate experience. I'm sure you're an oasis in a desert of ignorance.



You having a realtor's license speaks volumes.

Dude, no offense but you keep kiddie this and kiddie that but you have yet to say anything that remotely support your insiteful knowledge of the real estate world.

If you know so much about the subject, state what you know and make people feel stupid or else you look even dumber than they are.
 

Budmantom

Lifer
Aug 17, 2002
13,103
1
81
I can see this market slowing down but I doubt we will see prices going down.

Our house has appreciated just under $100k (60%) since we bought it in September (04) and we will always need a roof over our head so appreciation or depreciation is no big thing, our rental property is just about paid off so we are good to go.



Tom
 

GasX

Lifer
Feb 8, 2001
29,033
6
81
Originally posted by: CTrain
Dude, no offense but you keep kiddie this and kiddie that but you have yet to say anything that remotely support your insiteful knowledge of the real estate world.

If you know so much about the subject, state what you know and make people feel stupid or else you look even dumber than they are.
It's much easier to be smarmy than it is to be someone who actually makes statements and backs them up.

 

PingSpike

Lifer
Feb 25, 2004
21,765
614
126
Originally posted by: kranky
Supply does increase - they keep building homes farther away from the cities, where there used to be farms. I think a big factor is going to be gas prices. When they get to $3+/gallon, these homes that are far from the cities aren't going to be as attractive.

Originally posted by: aphex
The townhouse i bought for $140k in September is now worth approx $235k, i sure as hell hope not in the next 2 years :)

You are Bubble Boy! (in real estate terms) ;)

Honestly...I don't see gas prices affecting it that much. Unless everyone drove chevy tahoes with a leaky gas tank they'll probably save way more money living further out than they would lose, even on more expensive fuel. A prime location house, just from my limited knowledge, costs signifigantly more than one further out.

Those homes probably aren't attractive because of the amount of time it takes to get to work from them, more than the cost of fuel. At least, thats why they aren't attractive to me. I can't stand driving anymore.

Just my uninformed thoughts on the matter.
 

rufruf44

Platinum Member
May 8, 2001
2,002
0
0
House paid off. Not planning to move. Couldn't care less if bubble drops (if it even exist). Maybe I should, and get some savings from property taxes :evil:
 

Doggiedog

Lifer
Aug 17, 2000
12,780
5
81
I'll be ok. My house has gone up about 80% in 2 years. Even if the bubble chops the value in half, I'm still pretty close to right where I was when I bought it. Plus, I plan on living here a while so it makes no difference to me.

The one thing I'm concerned about is the effect on the US economy. When the bubble bursts on the RE market here, I can see the same stuff happening to us as it did to Japan in the 90s. Now that was a huge RE bubble there. The grounds of the emperial castle in Tokyo was once worth as much as the entire state of California.
 

squirrel dog

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
5,564
48
91
Wont hurt too much in the New South . My house was paid for out right when I built it in 94 for $166k , worth maybe 280 now , so says my wife the agent . The second home is also paid for , its on the water worth maybe 220k . Thats where I am headed now , to put a new water pump in my boat . Work hard , play hard . Later ..........SD.........
 

FoBoT

No Lifer
Apr 30, 2001
63,084
15
81
fobot.com
Not planning to move. Couldn't care less if bubble drops (if it even exist here).

we plan on living in this house that we bought 1 year ago until about 2017-2020

they are building a new house across the street from us and it has been listed at about 33% more than what we paid for a 2.5 year old house
 

JulesMaximus

No Lifer
Jul 3, 2003
74,590
986
126
I bought my house 6 years ago. No worries here.

I paid $220k for this house, it would sell for over $560k today.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
I'll be fine. We have some equity in our house already, and the market here hasnt gone nuts-high. Also our income to house cost ratio is higher than most, so we'll be ok. If it happens...
 

Kenazo

Lifer
Sep 15, 2000
10,429
1
81
Just looking for a house... We hope to spend around $100k@4.5%, so we should be fine. (property values are much lower in Manitoba)
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,825
6,374
126
Originally posted by: Kenazo
Just looking for a house... We hope to spend around $100k@4.5%, so we should be fine. (property values are much lower in Manitoba)

It's Manitoba, that's expected. ;) :D
 

Originally posted by: PingSpike
Originally posted by: kranky
Supply does increase - they keep building homes farther away from the cities, where there used to be farms. I think a big factor is going to be gas prices. When they get to $3+/gallon, these homes that are far from the cities aren't going to be as attractive.

Originally posted by: aphex
The townhouse i bought for $140k in September is now worth approx $235k, i sure as hell hope not in the next 2 years :)

You are Bubble Boy! (in real estate terms) ;)

Honestly...I don't see gas prices affecting it that much. Unless everyone drove chevy tahoes with a leaky gas tank they'll probably save way more money living further out than they would lose, even on more expensive fuel. A prime location house, just from my limited knowledge, costs signifigantly more than one further out.

Those homes probably aren't attractive because of the amount of time it takes to get to work from them, more than the cost of fuel. At least, thats why they aren't attractive to me. I can't stand driving anymore.

Just my uninformed thoughts on the matter.
Gas prices and increasing costs of maintaining a further stretching infastructure will cause some of these more rural properties to lose desierability. Though there will -always- be people with money who have no problem spending a little more to live away from more populated areas.

Generally the suburban sprawl is causing municipal maintenece costs to soar. It is because the average joe american wants his huge suburban castle with lots of land. This sprawl definatly has ramifications that many experts in many different fields have been warning about for a while. Though, that is more of a socio-economic trend than a real estate trend.

You shouldn't be worrying about interest rates, or appreciation/depreciation, you should be worrying about the trouble fannie mae is in. They are now under investigation for improper accounting practices, to the tune of 9 billion dollars. This situation could easily spiral out of control. The banks could lose their biggest creditor for the secondary market and the govt. will once again be put in the position to bail out its mortgage credit entity. Just like Freddie Mac.

Dude, no offense but you keep kiddie this and kiddie that but you have yet to say anything that remotely support your insiteful knowledge of the real estate world.

If you know so much about the subject, state what you know and make people feel stupid or else you look even dumber than they are.
That's because he has nothing to add. It's easy to justify you superiority based solely on age, but that's all he's got. Sad, you would think your head would become dislodged from your ass as you get older, this isn't the case with happybitch.
 

JulesMaximus

No Lifer
Jul 3, 2003
74,590
986
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
I'll be fine. We have some equity in our house already, and the market here hasnt gone nuts-high. Also our income to house cost ratio is higher than most, so we'll be ok. If it happens...

So is ours. We are very comfortable with our mortgage. Our monthly income is almost 4 times our mortgage payment (not including income from my wife's real estate sales). In fact, we thought about getting a house near us last year. One with a view and on a large lot but property taxes would have been double what we pay now so we decided not to do it. The asking price was $599,000 on that house so it would have been a little more than what we could sell our house for. Property taxes would have been almost $500/month.
 

purbeast0

No Lifer
Sep 13, 2001
53,699
6,573
126
i'm probably going to be in the house market in 2006 at some point. i might look at a condo, still not sure.

anyways, is this going to be a bad time to buy? i'm going to be a first time buyer, and i'm in the MD/DC metro area (although I work a little northern kind of close to baltimore).
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,326
68
91
Originally posted by: purbeast0
i'm probably going to be in the house market in 2006 at some point. i might look at a condo, still not sure.
anyways, is this going to be a bad time to buy?

Me too!
Good luck!
 

apoppin

Lifer
Mar 9, 2000
34,890
1
0
alienbabeltech.com
Well, i moved to what i thought was a "remote" place in the SoCali Hi-Desert . . . . 20 miles from downtown Palm Springs . . . . 120 miles from LA and 120 miles from San Diego (and less than 1 hour to work in major population areas - San Bernardino/Riverside; 1/2 hour to work in the Coachella Valley)

it's 2-1/2 acres of "horse property" and i bought it for $25K in '83 . . . . finished building the cabin, expanded it into a decent house with a coverd and screened patio, built a garage, 2 more concrete patios and planted fruit trees, etc.

Now this area is among the FASTEST growing in the USA . . . . my property has 10Xed in value and my mortgage payments are $135 a month (i had to REfinance; still owe less than 20K).

Whaddaya think? . . . . although i prefer the beach, my inland valley is a very desirable place to live (did i mention it is "view property"? . . . an AWEsome view of the mountains and reletively moderate Summers - compared with PS . . . we are at 3K' elevation) . . . .

:)
 

jlee

Lifer
Sep 12, 2001
48,518
223
106
Originally posted by: djheater
There's been a lot of talk lately about the 'real estate bubble' comparing in to the dot com nineties. So if it were to 'burst' would you be screwed? Nobody is going to buy your house at a profit for you if they have to pay 14% interest on MORE than what you payed.

Haha..I'd be happy, since we could actually afford a house. :p