Poll: Clinton leads Trump by double digits

[buckshot24]

Bill won 2 general elections without getting 50% of the popular vote. He only got 43% of the vote in 1992 but won with 370 electoral votes.

So what? I was responding to an observation somebody made that turned out to be not so accurate.

 

[dullard]

So what? I was responding to an observation somebody made that turned out to be not so accurate.

It was completely accurate. I said that Clinton has shown that she can get above 50% and Trump hasn't. The fact that Clinton wasn't over 50% in the last few polls doesn't affect the truth of my statement at all.

You don't need 50%, but few candidates win without reaching that point regularly in the polls. Note: regularly doesn't mean it has to be recent.

For example, suppose a runner has shown that he can break a world record in the 100 m dash and I have shown nothing. Who would you think is more likely to win a 100 m dash race? Probably the world record holder, even if he hasn't had a world record time since the beginning of May 2016.

 

[buckshot24]

Pretty much. Trump's has imploded in the past few weeks. He's demonstrated that he won't run to the middle (but instead amplified his rhetoric), won't follow the GOP leadership, and (worst of all) failed his first public leadership test in spectacular fashion.
My speculation is that the GOP is going to to cut Trump off from the party machine and force him to run independent. They'll split the ticket and nominate Cruz at the convention, accept that they won't win the White House, and try to save their seats down ballot (Trump voters will still likely vote R). Their only alternative is that they run Trump and lose everything in a catastrophic landslide.
After the election, the GOP will clean house. The base will be forgiven and brought back into the fold, but those prominent members of the GOP who backed Trump (ie Christie) will find their careers over.

How likely do you think this is? I give it a 0% chance of occurring.

 

[dullard]

How likely do you think this is? I give it a 0% chance of occurring.

There are two possible predictions in that post. Do you predict both have a 0% chance? I'd personally give ~5% chance to the first prediction (changing the rules and nominating Cruz) and ~95% chance to the second prediction (the GOP does very poorly in the election and finally cleans house).

 

[Exophase]

It looks like Trump's comments are finally hurting him. I guess it helps that Republican leaders are calling him a racist.

Meanwhile polls are generally showing that the support is transferring to third candidates (mostly Gary Johnson) and not Hillary. Would be really interesting to see Johnson start polling reliably at 15% and be invited to one of the debates. Getting the visibility would probably suck out even more Trump support. But I don't expect him to win over very many on the left with his taxation plans.

 

[buckshot24]

There are two possible predictions in that post. Do you predict both have a 0% chance? I'd personally give ~5% chance to the first prediction (changing the rules and nominating Cruz) and ~95% chance to the second prediction (the GOP does very poorly in the election and finally cleans house).

I should have been clear. The first one. If that one comes to pass it will be a massive landslide loss.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Trump is alone in the wilderness. He has, at best, limited support from his party, on which he is also relying for. he's relying on basic campaign funding because he's too cheap or arrogant to run himself. Much of the right-wing media and blogosphere is against him. His own campaign is in disarray and cannot respond effectively to attacks. He apparently writes his own speeches, which hurts him inasmuch as he knows nothing about most issues and is incapable of presenting a coherent argument. Frothing anger and unchecked id do apparently have their limits, happily for the republic.

he cannot rely on events like terrorist attacks to improve them; he doesn't know how to project the kind of strength middle-of-the-road voters would find persuasive. Eventually the numbers will get bad enough that Trump cannot bluster his way around them and his fellow Republicans or going to start panicking, very loud and in public. I can't see either the Republican establishment or Trump himself being content to ride this runaway train off the cliff.

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that Trump will withdraw. Whether the party pressures him into it or Trump decides his ego can't withstand the humiliation, an excuse will be made for him exiting the race. Today I'd put the odds at one in six. As for what would happen after that, I really do have no idea.

One thing I have become convinced of: the Trump we see in these speeches and rallies is not a persona. It's who he really is. His supporters love him because, while he's completely full of shit in terms of what he intends to do as president, he's nevertheless not being fake. In fact, Trump provides an interesting paradoxical lesson in how to lie about nearly everything while still remaining authentic to who you are as a person.

 

[Vic]

How likely do you think this is? I give it a 0% chance of occurring.

It's just speculation at this point, so I'd say less than 50% but certainly greater than 0%.
With the right spin campaign, ie Trump was a Clinton plant from the get go, the GOP should be able to whip a large number of votes back from Trump, while still ensuring a high turnout for their side.
Like I said, the other alternative (at this point) is that Hillary beats Trump in a landslide and the Dems get control of the Senate and possibly even the House.

 

[First]

Did I miss the election or something?

Yeah you did, badly.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Yeah you did, badly.

:awe: thanks for the flashback!

 

[DrPizza]

I should have been clear. The first one. If that one comes to pass it will be a massive landslide loss.

Massive landslide loss for Republicans down ticket? Or massive landslide loss for the POTUS election? The latter is almost guaranteed a given at this point. The former may be prevented with something like a Bush or a Kasich nomination. Though, aren't the Republicans' hands tied?

 

[dullard]

Though, aren't the Republicans' hands tied?

The GOP is a private entity with very few laws regulating it. They can change the nomination rules as they see fit, even after the public votes are in. So, technically, no their hands are not tied. That said, I doubt that they will go against the voters.

 

[Subyman]

What's been funny is seeing Reince saying everything is fine and Trump is a great nominee while GOPers are jumping overboard. I guess he has no option other than to go down with the ship.

 

[lopri]

He drags everyone around him down when he fails or does not get what he wants. If you know one of those people in real life, the similarity should be readily apparent even if the magnitude is not the same.

It may be what the GOP needed, but the country cannot afford another president with an emotional appeal and an empty brain.

 

[BurnItDwn]

Al Gore seemed to be destined to be president over George Bush.

Gore was boring, but at least he wasnt retarded.
Bush became president thanks to fraud.

Whats to stop Trump from winning because some Judge and a friend of his screw up the counts in a few states and turn things to his favor?

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Al Gore seemed to be destined to be president over George Bush.

Gore was boring, but at least he wasnt retarded.
Bush became president thanks to fraud.

Whats to stop Trump from winning because some Judge and a friend of his screw up the counts in a few states and turn things to his favor?

I really don't think it's going to be anywhere near as close as bush/gore although I think someone will have the appearance of being gored.

 

[soundforbjt]

Trump's unfavorability is now 70%. He's gaining in one part of the race at least...

 

[BurnItDwn]

I really don't think it's going to be anywhere near as close as bush/gore although I think someone will have the appearance of being gored.

Trump is a lot smarter than Bush.
He might play an idiot on TV, but the guy has brains.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Trump is a lot smarter than Bush.
He might play an idiot on TV, but the guy has brains.

then he may want to let them out and breathe every once in a while. con artist, sure, manipulator, sure, smart, not so sure.

 

[Subyman]

Trump is a lot smarter than Bush.
He might play an idiot on TV, but the guy has brains.

Bush let extremely smart people run his campaign. Trump doesn't and he keeps messing up. You could say Bush was smart enough to know he couldn't do it himself, or he had just an ounce of humility. I said several weeks ago that I doubted Trump could survive his own hubris and its playing out sooner than I'd thought. We haven't even gotten to the nomination and he's melting down.

 

[buckshot24]

Massive landslide loss for Republicans down ticket? Or massive landslide loss for the POTUS election? The latter is almost guaranteed a given at this point. The former may be prevented with something like a Bush or a Kasich nomination. Though, aren't the Republicans' hands tied?

Both, if they do that switch. Do you really think Trump supporters will vote Bush or Kasich if they steal the nomination from Trump?

 

[buckshot24]

Yeah you did, badly.

What does that have to do with anything?

 

[gorobei]

so how many bad poll results will it take for the senate judiciary committee to suddenly decide to give judge garland a hearing?

 

[Meghan54]

so how many bad poll results will it take for the senate judiciary committee to suddenly decide to give judge garland a hearing?

Sorta makes one wonder, doesn't it?

Couple that with desertion of Trump by the GOP elite, like Armitage below, and I'd be willing to bet Garland gets an invitation to Senate hearings.

Armitage to back Clinton over Trump

Richard Armitage, the deputy secretary of state under George W. Bush, says he will vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, in one of the most dramatic signs yet that Republican national security elites are rejecting their party’s presumptive nominee.

Armitage, a retired Navy officer who also served as an assistant secretary of defense under Ronald Reagan, is thought by Clinton aides to be the highest-ranking former GOP national security official to openly support Clinton over Trump.

“If Donald Trump is the nominee, I would vote for Hillary Clinton,” Armitage told POLITICO in a brief interview. “He doesn't appear to be a Republican, he doesn't appear to want to learn about issues. So, I’m going to vote for Mrs. Clinton.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/richard-armitage-endorses-clinton-224431

 

[BxgJ]

Bush let extremely smart people run his campaign. Trump doesn't and he keeps messing up. You could say Bush was smart enough to know he couldn't do it himself, or he had just an ounce of humility. I said several weeks ago that I doubted Trump could survive his own hubris and its playing out sooner than I'd thought. We haven't even gotten to the nomination and he's melting down.

First part definitely. Real, actually intelligent people that are also effective in life know that they don't know everything. They can't, it's not possible to be an expert in everything. So you need to know what you are not good at, and how to tell who is.

I've never seen that from Trump. It's almost always 'I'm the best at X', and so on. As far as him being able to 'hire the best people', well I'm not seeing it now. In fact I doubt it has ever been the case