Polish President assassinated?

[HybridSquirrel]

http://gazbom.blogspot.com/2010/04/guy-who-filmed-shots-fired-at-polish.html


Skeptical, but interesting.

 

[shabby]

Gunshots at a crash site? Strange indeed...

 

[PJABBER]

Mystery now surrounds the recent death of Adrij Mendierej, the Polish news anchorman that was at the scene of the plane crash in Russia that killed the President of Poland and a large number of Polish VIPs. He was the first to film the scene. The videos he took have been posted on YouTube and seen around the world.

"Author (Adrij Mendierej) of the video seen by everyone by now has been stabbed near Kijow on 4.15 and transported in critical condition to the hospital in Kijow. On 4.16 three unidentified individuals unplugged him from life support system and stabbed him 3 more times. Andrij was pronounced dead that afternoon. Russian government claims it was a coincidence."

 

[HybridSquirrel]

The video is really really shitty quality, and the stuff they highlight in the video is kinda like...videos of big foot. but those gunshots are pretty scary. was there an official report on his death?

 

[Aegeon]

As I noted right after this crash occurred, Russia being behind the crash really doesn't make sense. To quote what I wrote then...

The thing is even if you want to assume the worst of Russia here, the cost benefit analysis of Russia shooting down the plane and trying to make it look like an accident don't make sense.

Basically there will be some political shapeup, but things won't change that much, and the party which isn't particularly friendly to Russia will certainly stay in power. (Since Poland has a strong parliament, many key political figures were not killed in this crash regardless.)

From a military perspective, yes the very top leadership is lost, but realistically the long term harm to the military will be relative with other generals and military officers taking their places and roles fairly quickly. The key detail is that Poland is a member of NATO, and if Russia were to now invade Poland anytime in the very immediate future, its safe to say every member of NATO would fully commit to defending Poland with their militaries and Russia would get decisively defeated conventionally under such a circumstance. (In such a situation everyone would simply assume Russia shot down the plane in a ruthless assassination and is now following that up with an invasion regardless of the actual truth.) For that matter since such a conflict would involve NATO in general, the conceivable harm to Poland's military from losing the military leadership would not be great enough to really significantly benefit Russia. (And incidentally to maximize any potential benefit from the loss of Poland's military leadership such an invasion would need to start literally the day of the crash.)

Basically the benefits for Russia simply are not significant, while the potential severe international diplomatic consequences if Russia eventually was shown to have shot down the plane vastly outweigh such limited benefits.

We're now incidentally talking about a date where even if Russia did suddenly launch an invasion, it would already be too late to obtain most of the military benefit from taking out the top military leadership since adjustments have been made since then.

 

[PJABBER]

No official report yet. Like you said, the video that he took is open to interpretation and the sound could be of trees cracking from fire. However, it doesn't look like that area was burned much at all, certainly not to the extent that you would have trees popping off from heat. The translation of the audio on that one particular video is disturbing enough but, from the little Russian I know, doesn't seem to be a direct translation. Perhaps someone with a better fluency could make a direct translation. The murder of Mendierej as described, if confirmed, would be off the scale suspicious but of what?

 

[Lemon law]

That is the wonderful thing about a conspiracy theory, no matter how implausible, its can't be disproved. Every one is dead, how convenient, excepting those clever perps that got away.

 

[PieIsAwesome]

Yes, Stalin planted the trees to kill him.

 

[CanOWorms]

Most likely EU agents rather than Russian. It's smart to do it in Russia, too.

How many more people will die for European energy security?

 

[Perknose]

Most likely EU agents rather than Russian.

Yes, yes, no doubt, a crack cadre of menacing middle level EU bureaucrats with their lethally sharpened pencils and their deadly triplicate forms.

SIGN HERE!

And here,

Aaaaaaand here,

And here and here,

Aaaaaaaan right over here,

And here,

And here,

Aaaaaand here, here and here,

Aaaaaand . . . :awe:

 

[CanOWorms]

Yes, yes, no doubt, a crack cadre of menacing middle level EU bureaucrats with their lethally sharpened pencils and their deadly triplicate forms.

SIGN HERE!

And here,

Aaaaaaand here,

And here and here,

Aaaaaaaan right over here,

And here,

And here,

Aaaaaand here, here and here,

Aaaaaand . . . :awe:

Don't underestimate them. These are probably the same bureaucrats that installed the cannibalistic dictator in Africa. They can be quite ruthless!

 

[GodlessAstronomer]

Most likely EU agents rather than Russian. It's smart to do it in Russia, too.

How many more people will die for European energy security?

Get your head checked.

 

[Locut0s]

Get your head checked.

What head?

 

[al981]

haha. dumb americans can't even accept a jfk assassination conspiracy, yet they start a poland / russian / euro conspiracy.

nutjobs.

 

[Lemon law]

This was basically an act of God, and as we know, God always gets away with it.

 

[Elias824]

As I noted right after this crash occurred, Russia being behind the crash really doesn't make sense. To quote what I wrote then...

The thing is even if you want to assume the worst of Russia here, the cost benefit analysis of Russia shooting down the plane and trying to make it look like an accident don't make sense.

Basically there will be some political shapeup, but things won't change that much, and the party which isn't particularly friendly to Russia will certainly stay in power. (Since Poland has a strong parliament, many key political figures were not killed in this crash regardless.)

From a military perspective, yes the very top leadership is lost, but realistically the long term harm to the military will be relative with other generals and military officers taking their places and roles fairly quickly. The key detail is that Poland is a member of NATO, and if Russia were to now invade Poland anytime in the very immediate future, its safe to say every member of NATO would fully commit to defending Poland with their militaries and Russia would get decisively defeated conventionally under such a circumstance. (In such a situation everyone would simply assume Russia shot down the plane in a ruthless assassination and is now following that up with an invasion regardless of the actual truth.) For that matter since such a conflict would involve NATO in general, the conceivable harm to Poland's military from losing the military leadership would not be great enough to really significantly benefit Russia. (And incidentally to maximize any potential benefit from the loss of Poland's military leadership such an invasion would need to start literally the day of the crash.)

Basically the benefits for Russia simply are not significant, while the potential severe international diplomatic consequences if Russia eventually was shown to have shot down the plane vastly outweigh such limited benefits.

We're now incidentally talking about a date where even if Russia did suddenly launch an invasion, it would already be too late to obtain most of the military benefit from taking out the top military leadership since adjustments have been made since then.

As much as I distrust Russia, and there is some evidence against them I have to agree that it just seems rather pointless. The only real reason I could think of for such an attack would be perhaps a personal grudge, or something very out of the obvious.

 

[theeedude]

Russians killed him by telling his pilots to not land in thick fog. They obviously had to know that Poles would do the exact opposite of what Russians told them.

 

[PJABBER]

As much as I distrust Russia, and there is some evidence against them I have to agree that it just seems rather pointless. The only real reason I could think of for such an attack would be perhaps a personal grudge, or something very out of the obvious.

The obvious reason would be the intimidation of Eastern European, formerly Soviet, governments once under Russia's boot heel and still wary of a resurgence of Russian imperialism.

A blatant mass political killing, if this is what it was, might seem over the top to people in the West but not so much to those who have lived the history of the region.

 

[werepossum]

Get your head checked.

Perhaps someone can recommend a good proctologist . . .

 

[woolfe9999]

The obvious reason would be the intimidation of Eastern European, formerly Soviet, governments once under Russia's boot heel and still wary of a resurgence of Russian imperialism.

A blatant mass political killing, if this is what it was, might seem over the top to people in the West but not so much to those who have lived the history of the region.

If you're going to assassinate world leaders as a show of intimidation and force, you don't make it look like an accident and deny any wrongdoing. That kind of defeats the purpose.

So far the motive here is a 404 not found.

- wolf

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Russians killed him by telling his pilots to not land in thick fog. They obviously had to know that Poles would do the exact opposite of what Russians told them.

i lold


I dont claim there is any reason behind this, nor that this is entirely true Its just something to think about. It does seem plausable...especially since the guy who filmed it was stabbed to death for posting it on the interwebs.

 

[spidey07]

Too soon?

 

[PJABBER]

If you're going to assassinate world leaders as a show of intimidation and force, you don't make it look like an accident and deny any wrongdoing. That kind of defeats the purpose.

So far the motive here is a 404 not found.

- wolf

The lesson, should that be what it is, may escape you, while it resonates elsewhere.

Katyn Forest Massacre

Litene

Soviet War Crimes

Murder, Russian-Style: Political Assassination

Killings of Russia's Human-Rights Activists Continue

The last two stories reference Chechnya, for which I have little sympathy, but are a few more recent examples of exactly how Russia deals with people that are annoying them.

Poland, the Baltics, the list of what were buffer states to Mother Russia and are now actively cooperating with the West, remain targets for Russia. They know it, even if you don't.

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Too soon?

haha dude im trying so hard to not lol to hard in class.....omfg

 

[Juddog]

Too soon?

AHHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHHA ok you win this thread!