When discussing about theoretical things, its good to keep even the numbers theoretical. There's no point of agonizing about little details because it'll easily made up by whatever it might be.
That said, 30% is quite common on server workloads. Client is different, but they get less with 2x cores.
As you know there are also applications which run slower if SMT is enabled, means that SMT can also have a negative gain.
Like 2% in low thread apps, in about 1 in a 1000 applications. SMP systems like the Core 2 Quad 9775 showed degradation compared to non SMP systems too.
Comparing SMT vs 50% more cores(only going to count applications that show clear gain from multi-threading to weed out Turbo and clocks/cache. Also going to minus few 3-5% for 2500 vs 2600 comparison):
http://www.anandtech.com/bench/Product/288?vs=287
http://www.anandtech.com/bench/Product/102?vs=203
X264 HD Encode Test 2nd pass:
SMT: 28%
1.5x: 47.5%
3DSMax R9 CPU Test:
SMT: 10%
1.5x: 20.8%
Cinebench MT bench:
SMT: 10%
1.5x: 34%
POV-Ray 3.7 Beta 23 SMP Benchmark:
SMT: 40%
1.5x: 43.9%
Par2 Multithreaded par2cmdline 0.4:
SMT: 10%
1.5x: 37.5%
Blender 2.48a Character Render
SMT: 12%
1.5x: 30.4%
Microsoft Excel 2007 SP1 - Monte Carlo Simulation
SMT: 35%
1.5x: 46.3%
Sorenson Squeeze 5 - Flash Video Creation
SMT: 21%
1.5x: 23.2%
WinRAR 3.8 Compression 300MB Archive
SMT: 15%
1.5x: 19.1%
x264 HD Benchmark - 2nd Pass
SMT: 21%
1.5x: 41.9%
7-zip Benchmark:
SMT: 32%
1.5x: 44.3%
Microsoft Excel SP1
SMT: 25%
1.5x: 43.8%
SMT average gain normalized for clock: 21%
1.5x cores gain: 36.1%
Out of 12 benchmarks:
-2 applications show SMT showing nearly high a gain as having 50% more cores
-6 additional applications show SMT showing greater than 50% gain of 1.5x more cores
-The rest 4 benchmarks show 0.25-0.35x the gain compared to having 1.5x the cores.
-Overall, Hyperthreading gives gains that are 60% of what's possible with having 1.5x the cores, or equal to having 1/3 more physical cores
In servers, the same websites that used to recommend turning Hyperthreading off now advises the reverse. Still, lot of the server users do the dumb assumption and disable it.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/2774/10
In some of the server comparisons, the sole factor of having Hyperthreading disabled would have put it even below the Opteron, where if it had enabled it, it could have been significantly ahead.