Pakistan is in danger of collapse within months

[Sacrilege]

Originally posted by: Craig234

Originally posted by: tvarad
Here's an article that reinforces what I have said in my last post. The current president Zardari is one such wealthy landlords himself. I think the world had better start preparing for a Taliban/Al-Qaeda nexus with nukes, because the Pakistani military establishment is going to get the feet cut from underneath it:

The New York Times (April 16, 2009)

Taliban Exploit Class Rifts to Gain Ground in Pakistan

PESHAWAR, Pakistan ? The Taliban have advanced deeper into Pakistan by engineering a class revolt that exploits profound fissures between a small group of wealthy landlords and their landless tenants, according to government officials and analysts here.

The right seems to fail to understand one of the side benefits of economic justice, reducing the ability for conflict, the recruiting of the poor in an unjust system.

It was long observed that communism appealed to people who wanted to eat and had little ability to do so because of abusive concentrations of wealth and power.

Competition often brings out good things, and the cold war inspired the US from putting a man on the moon to shifting to stronger support for third-world nations' rights.

Even today, the communist Chinese government has in effect told the people they will be able to receive economic gains in exchange for not demanding political rights.

John Kennedy's words may well apply directly to the situation in Pakistan:

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor,
it cannot save the few who are rich.
John F. Kennedy 1-20-1963

He faced the same sort of thing in Vietnam, where he was unable to get the ruling class to reform and reduce its abuses of the masses, and it fell.

Sadly, the other side had the stronger moral case in an important way - their rejection of foreign occupation and control.

Those who make peaceful revolutions impossible
will make violent revolutions inevitable.
John Kennedy

It's harder and harder for oppressed people to have revolutions, with the advances in military technology. Some day, it'll likely be completely impossible, allowing tyranny.

In the meantime, injustice opens the door for the monsters of the Taliban to have willing followers.

The basic need for social and economic justice hasn't changed. Unfortunately, the tendency for socieites to have ruling elites hasn't changed, either.

If we'd choose policies that support economic and social justice, not only would be be doing the right thing, we'd reduce the risk of revolution.

But... I don't understand. You say the poor revolt for justice, but here in America, the imminent revolution is the rich Republicans revolting. You know.... all those teabaggers whose taxes are going up because they make over 250k /year.

According to them, America's entrenched establishment is welfare queens and homeless drug addicts.

 

[Craig234]

Originally posted by: Sacrilege
But... I don't understand. You say the poor revolt for justice, but here in America, the imminent revolution is the rich Republicans revolting. You know.... all those teabaggers whose taxes are going up because they make over 250k /year.

According to them, America's entrenched establishment is welfare queens and homeless drug addicts.

America is nowhere near 'revolution' no matter how much Fox stirs it up - even while the Governor of Texas apparently wants to secede (I'd let him).

JFK had plenty to say that's very relevant today, though, for the US economy, too.

Take the fact of Reagan to now, thatthe nation's growth has all gone to the top after inflation - top 0.01% up hundreds of percent, bottom 80% around zero.

Economic growth without social progress lets the great majority of the people remain in
poverty, while a privleged few reap the benefits of rising abundance.
- John Kennedy

Or, we've often discussed the legacy effects of a century of racism and poverty that make things unequal, while the Republicans want to abolish the Estate Tax:

There is inherited wealth in this country and also
inherited poverty.
John F. Kennedy, 10-26-1963

 

[Kadarin]

Bumping this thread thanks to two new stories on cnn.com:

Clinton warns Pakistan facing 'existential' threat

Taliban claims victory near Islamabad

From the first link:

"Not only do the Pakistani government officials, but the Pakistani people and the Pakistani diaspora -- many of whom are extremely successful Americans here, in academia, businesses, the professions and so much else -- need to speak our forcefully against a policy that is ceding more and more territory to the insurgents, to the Taliban, to al Qaeda, to the allies that are in this terrorist syndicate," she said.

 

[tvarad]

Originally posted by: Kadarin
Bumping this thread thanks to two new stories on cnn.com:

Clinton warns Pakistan facing 'existential' threat

Taliban claims victory near Islamabad

From the first link:

"Not only do the Pakistani government officials, but the Pakistani people and the Pakistani diaspora -- many of whom are extremely successful Americans here, in academia, businesses, the professions and so much else -- need to speak our forcefully against a policy that is ceding more and more territory to the insurgents, to the Taliban, to al Qaeda, to the allies that are in this terrorist syndicate," she said.

Except for those who flee to the Middle East to get menial construction jobs and who have never had any say in how Pakistan is governed, the rest of the diaspora is part of the problem, not the solution. They are mostly from the upper middle class and higher, and benefited immensely from the feudal setup that governs Pakistan. The reason why Pakistan is in this situation is that this class has been loath to make the changes necessary to bring in the rest of Pakistan into the political process. The resulting vacuum has been taken up by the extremists who are knocking on Islamabad's gates.

This is going to blindside the West, much like 9/11 did. I am surprised that no one is yet talking of a contingency plan for Pakistan's nukes.

 

[Lemon law]

My position is and remains, the larger and more modern areas of Pakistan are in no danger of collapse, but the Taliban type ideas in the primitive areas of Pakistan are doing better and better as time goes by. The harder the USA shoves, the more easily the Taliban rallies the population against any US or Nato incursions into the primitive and highly conservative local populations of the tribal areas of Pakistan. Having a net effect of making the US and Nato into the bad guys and the Taliban into the good guys.

If we want to grow a brain, we would realize we should stay the hell out of Pakistan and let the Taliban become the bad guys, an assessment they richly deserve simply because of their brutal tactics. And all we are doing is to somehow manage to become more morally bankrupt than the Taliban as we make their homes into shooting galleries, resulting in advantage Taliban.

Given their choice in an abscience of conflict, people world wide will choose the benefits of modern technology, a force the Taliban can't win against because they are the antithesis of that force, a force that always drives human progress. And also why the more modern areas of Pakistan are a barren field for Taliban ideas.

 

[Dari]

I think we need to help Pakistan by setting up bases within the country.

 

[fornax]

Originally posted by: tvarad
At the end of the day, the Pakistanis are rank cowards. From the days of Alexander, every two-bit invader that set sights on India used them as doormats. Nothing has changed in the last few decades when they've either retreated or surrendered outright in every fight that, btw, was started by them.

It took one phone call from Colin Powell for them to do a 180 degree turn and throw the Taliban under the bus. If the West took the war on terror seriously and placed the Pakistani military's nuclear options on the table in the worst-case scenario, they will do the same to their nukes.

Holly cow, your lack of knowledge of history is astounding. And your bigotry is astounding, too.

 

[Kadarin]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
My position is and remains, the larger and more modern areas of Pakistan are in no danger of collapse, but the Taliban type ideas in the primitive areas of Pakistan are doing better and better as time goes by.

From one of the CNN links, here, is the following:

Control of the Buner district brings the Taliban closer to the capital, Islamabad, than they have been since they started their insurgency. Islamabad is 96 kilometers (60 miles) from the district.

60 miles! How fucking close to the capital do you have to be before you are no longer "in the primitive areas"?

 

[Lemon law]

Kararin asks a somewhat ignortant question by asking, "60 miles! How fucking close to the capital do you have to be before you are no longer "in the primitive areas"?"

When there are only a few million people in the swat valley, and almost all of Pakistan 165 or so million in population are concentrated in the modern areas of Pakistan, its not a matter of distance, its a matter that the much smaller tail of the dog does not and never can rule the much larger body of the dog.

The vast majority of Pakistan will not accept Taliban type ideas, but are perfectly content to let the Taliban rule the tribal areas they never gave a damn about in the first place. The Taliban knows their limits also, their main message to the more Modern areas of Pakistan is to let and let live, let us rule in our small turf, and we will stay on our side of the line. Failing that, we will commit all manners of mischief to force you to back off. And when the US and Nato queer that deal with their own aggressions, it becomes a Mexican standoff, the Taliban tells the much larger Pakistani government to make Nato to stay out and Nato tells the Pakistani government to let Nato in. The Nato problem in this Mexican standoff is that Nato only has 10% of the troops needed to be even minimally effective, in short, just enough to Nato troops and air power to stir up a hornets nest, but all that does is to get Pakistan stung.

 

[sciwizam]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Kararin asks a somewhat ignortant question by asking, "60 miles! How fucking close to the capital do you have to be before you are no longer "in the primitive areas"?"

When there are only a few million people in the swat valley, and almost all of Pakistan 165 or so million in population are concentrated in the modern areas of Pakistan, its not a matter of distance, its a matter that the much smaller tail of the dog does not and never can rule the much larger body of the dog.

The vast majority of Pakistan will not accept Taliban type ideas, but are perfectly content to let the Taliban rule the tribal areas they never gave a damn about in the first place. The Taliban knows their limits also, their main message to the more Modern areas of Pakistan is to let and let live, let us rule in our small turf, and we will stay on our side of the line. Failing that, we will commit all manners of mischief to force you to back off. And when the US and Nato queer that deal with their own aggressions, it becomes a Mexican standoff, the Taliban tells the much larger Pakistani government to make Nato to stay out and Nato tells the Pakistani government to let Nato in. The Nato problem in this Mexican standoff is that Nato only has 10% of the troops needed to be even minimally effective, in short, just enough to Nato troops and air power to stir up a hornets nest, but all that does is to get Pakistan stung.

I guess the Sri Lankan Cricket team was out in the wilderness of downtown Lahore.

 

[5150Joker]

As much of a biased prick that tvarad is, he does have a point that Pakistan has been run by a handful of corrupt land owners and they are directly responsible for the plight of that country and the extremism that it faces today. The only way things will change in Pakistan is if the same corrupt people (Zardari and friends) aren't in charge and the land is redistributed. The Punjabi ruling elite in Pakistan would rather let the country crumble than have the people in that nation thrive in a fair system. I think they will eventually have to make a decision: Face all out civil war in the near future or start making real concessions. Right now the Taliban are content to stay in NW Pakistan but there could be a time in the future where the not-so-privileged in Punjab send them an invitation.

 

[Kadarin]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Kararin asks a somewhat ignortant question by asking, "60 miles! How fucking close to the capital do you have to be before you are no longer "in the primitive areas"?"

You are right in that I don't have an intimate knowledge of the infrastructure and geography of Pakistan. However, even you have to admit that 60 miles is pretty damned close.

The Taliban knows their limits also, their main message to the more Modern areas of Pakistan is to let and let live, let us rule in our small turf, and we will stay on our side of the line.

I can only laugh at that statement. Sure, the Taliban have always been pushing the ideal of "live and let live", LOL.

Just... LOL. And unicorns dance in the light of rainbows, too.

 

[The Green Bean]

Something needs to be be done about this nuisance. I see it nothing more than a minor threat which has to be dealt with some how. 60 miles is a long way when you consider the terrain. And there is breaking news on news channels that the army has dispatched 8 platoons of troops to Buner. Any idea how many that is? I don't know why the army is letting the taliban take over without a fight. Islamabad is a pipe dream but why let them control even inch of our land?

 

[cubby1223]

Originally posted by: Craig234
The right seems to fail to understand one of the side benefits of economic justice, reducing the ability for conflict, the recruiting of the poor in an unjust system.

You really do believe "the right" is a platform for amassing wealth into the hands of a few while oppressing the many :laugh:

It really is difficult to take anything you say seriously :laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

 

[5150Joker]

Originally posted by: The Green Bean
Something needs to be be done about this nuisance. I see it nothing more than a minor threat which has to be dealt with some how. 60 miles is a long way when you consider the terrain. And there is breaking news on news channels that the army has dispatched 8 platoons of troops to Buner. Any idea how many that is? I don't know why the army is letting the taliban take over without a fight. Islamabad is a pipe dream but why let them control even inch of our land?

Because the toughest fighetrs in the Pak army have links to NW Pakistan so they'd be hard pressed to kill out there while others might have problems attacking other Muslims and finally the last 1/3rd are rank and file cowards.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: tvarad
I am surprised that no one is yet talking of a contingency plan for Pakistan's nukes.

You think they aren't? I bet both the US and India have plans in the works in case Islamabad falls, they just aren't going to have a public debate about it.

 

[sandorski]

Pakistan is indeed on the verge. The Majority may not like the Taliban, but like in Afghanistan, the Taliban knows how to exert Power far beyond their numbers. As mentioned by others, the Social Injustice amongst the Pakistani People will only serve to drive more support to the Taliban and continue to undermine the whole country.

 

[tvarad]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: tvarad
I am surprised that no one is yet talking of a contingency plan for Pakistan's nukes.

You think they aren't? I bet both the US and India have plans in the works in case Islamabad falls, they just aren't going to have a public debate about it.

Forget about India. The current defense minister does not know the front end of a AK-47 from the back-end, so I'm hard-pressed to think that he is sophisticated enough to understand the dangers in the neighborhood.

I am hoping that the CIA has thought this through.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: tvarad

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: tvarad
I am surprised that no one is yet talking of a contingency plan for Pakistan's nukes.

You think they aren't? I bet both the US and India have plans in the works in case Islamabad falls, they just aren't going to have a public debate about it.

Forget about India. The current defense minister does not know the front end of a AK-47 from the back-end, so I'm hard-pressed to think that he is sophisticated enough to understand the dangers in the neighborhood.

I am hoping that the CIA has thought this through.

It's those that work for the Defense Minister that need to know the difference.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Kararin asks a somewhat ignortant question by asking, "60 miles! How fucking close to the capital do you have to be before you are no longer "in the primitive areas"?"

When there are only a few million people in the swat valley, and almost all of Pakistan 165 or so million in population are concentrated in the modern areas of Pakistan, its not a matter of distance, its a matter that the much smaller tail of the dog does not and never can rule the much larger body of the dog.

The vast majority of Pakistan will not accept Taliban type ideas, but are perfectly content to let the Taliban rule the tribal areas they never gave a damn about in the first place. The Taliban knows their limits also, their main message to the more Modern areas of Pakistan is to let and let live, let us rule in our small turf, and we will stay on our side of the line. Failing that, we will commit all manners of mischief to force you to back off. And when the US and Nato queer that deal with their own aggressions, it becomes a Mexican standoff, the Taliban tells the much larger Pakistani government to make Nato to stay out and Nato tells the Pakistani government to let Nato in. The Nato problem in this Mexican standoff is that Nato only has 10% of the troops needed to be even minimally effective, in short, just enough to Nato troops and air power to stir up a hornets nest, but all that does is to get Pakistan stung.

Where is there any evidence that the Taliban know their limits.

They have been expanding control over Pakistan - Pakistan has the military mucsle, yet the government have ceded territory to the Talioban and are not trying much in contesting the next plate of food.

The Taliban will continue nibbling around the edges until they control most of the land; allowing the government a token area.

Then the Taliban can sit back and accept a two state system or gear up to take full control as they did in Afghanistan.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Common Courtesy

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Kararin asks a somewhat ignortant question by asking, "60 miles! How fucking close to the capital do you have to be before you are no longer "in the primitive areas"?"

When there are only a few million people in the swat valley, and almost all of Pakistan 165 or so million in population are concentrated in the modern areas of Pakistan, its not a matter of distance, its a matter that the much smaller tail of the dog does not and never can rule the much larger body of the dog.

The vast majority of Pakistan will not accept Taliban type ideas, but are perfectly content to let the Taliban rule the tribal areas they never gave a damn about in the first place. The Taliban knows their limits also, their main message to the more Modern areas of Pakistan is to let and let live, let us rule in our small turf, and we will stay on our side of the line. Failing that, we will commit all manners of mischief to force you to back off. And when the US and Nato queer that deal with their own aggressions, it becomes a Mexican standoff, the Taliban tells the much larger Pakistani government to make Nato to stay out and Nato tells the Pakistani government to let Nato in. The Nato problem in this Mexican standoff is that Nato only has 10% of the troops needed to be even minimally effective, in short, just enough to Nato troops and air power to stir up a hornets nest, but all that does is to get Pakistan stung.

Where is there any evidence that the Taliban know their limits.

They have been expanding control over Pakistan - Pakistan has the military mucsle, yet the government have ceded territory to the Talioban and are not trying much in contesting the next plate of food.

The Taliban will continue nibbling around the edges until they control most of the land; allowing the government a token area.

Then the Taliban can sit back and accept a two state system or gear up to take full control as they did in Afghanistan.

Not onlly that, but at least certain agencies within the Government have been quite supportive of the Taliban for a long time now. I suspect that Pakistan is merely another military Coup away from full Government control.

 

[BassBomb]

Sucks that most of my cousins families and what not stay there and did not immigrate to Canada like we did (3-4 families immigrated here, 12+ remain)

 

[dphantom]

The news continues to worsen.

Link

"The Taliban have reestablished checkpoints in Swat and have started to conduct patrols. Yesterday, the Taliban kidnapped six soldiers and a driver in Swat. Today four civilians were kidnapped while four of the captured soldiers were placed in front of the hastily established sharia courts.

In the neighboring district of Buner, a region the Taliban overran in just eight short days with minimal resistance, the Taliban are sending in more troops. The Taliban are patrolling and manning checkpoints in Buner, while their followers are preaching in mosques and openly recruiting young men to fight. Local courts have closed and judges have gone 'on leave,' while a local TNSM official said his group fully backs the Taliban.

In Shangla, more than 70 Taliban fighters occupied a hospital while others fanned out and took over control of government buildings. In Swat, Buner, and Shangla, the local administration and the police did not protest the Taliban moves.

The Taliban are also signaling their intent to moving into the districts of Swabi, Malakand, and Mardan. Last week, the Taliban conducted a victory road march through the three districts after conquering Buner. The Taliban have now begun to establish armed checkpoints in Swat and Buner along the roads that border Swabi, Malakand, and Mardan."

Below is a map of the western part pf Pakistan indicating areas of Taliban control or influence.

Map

In the meantime, Frontier Corps troops and Pakistani Regular Army stand by and watch. There appears to be no willingness to combat the spread of Sharia law and rule by Taliban. Peshawar is rapidly becoming isolated and could be overrun if these advances continue.

 

[K1052]

If the Taliban moves on Islamabad the US and possibly India is going to to be forced into undertaking drastic military action.

Under absolutely no circumstances can the Pakistani nuclear arsenal be allowed even the slightest possibility of falling into Taliban control, it must be secured at any and all costs.

 

[Modelworks]

They are long way from the nuclear arsenal. I was curious so I looked it up using google maps and the info from the last government reports of where they store the nuclear materials and weapons. It is over 145 miles from the capital and about 170 miles from where the Taliban is now. Still the Taliban are going to use every person they can to try to pull this off.

Image showing where nuclear materials are compared to where they are near the capital.
http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/530/pakh.jpg