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Orange stain second term results thread

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cytg111 said:
Beyond that it's also the natural cyclic progression of new tech right, it gets faster and smaller, draws less power while even outputting more and better.

In a few months we will be able to run these insane models in our own homes on 2k$ nvidia hardware.

You have to wonder what kind of innovation 500B dollars can put on top of that. Crazy fucking times. Terminator and Idiocracy both being documentaries in the same timeframe is fucking mental.
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You aren't going to be able to raise that kind of money for AI capex if the Chinese just came along and duplicated your model's performance for a tiny fraction of the current spending. There was already increasing nervousness about the huge spending on something that isn't making money (LLMs) and nobody can tell you how it ever will.
 
Looks like we are going to have the first Trump stock market crash today. What sucks is I was planning on moving some money out of US stocks today 🙁
 
Zorba said:
Looks like we are going to have the first Trump stock market crash today. What sucks is I was planning on moving some money out of US stocks today 🙁
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Much as I hate him can't put this on his shoulders. DeepSeek is driving down some pretty widely held companies. Going to be a fun day of margin sellouts sadly.
 
MomentsofSanity said:
Much as I hate him can't put this on his shoulders. DeepSeek is driving down some pretty widely held companies. Going to be a fun day of margin sellouts sadly.
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If he follows through with tariffs on Canada/Mexico on Feb 1 he's going end up politically owning the entire decline.
 
cytg111 said:
Beyond that it's also the natural cyclic progression of new tech right, it gets faster and smaller, draws less power while even outputting more and better.
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Except that wasn't the progression of the murrican companies at all? Their value was based more of how much "investment" has being put, not on results or efficient.

Thanks China!
 
K1052 said:
You aren't going to be able to raise that kind of money for AI capex if the Chinese just came along and duplicated your model's performance for a tiny fraction of the current spending. There was already increasing nervousness about the huge spending on something that isn't making money (LLMs) and nobody can tell you how it ever will.
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Ah.

For one it's still a race and you cant just flip around and use China's instead .. That is a national security issue on the information warfare frontier. If TikTok was a problem then a superior Chinese model is 1000x worse.

This is not a race you can afford to lose.

And how it will make money? I mean I am building fully fledged applications right now and all it takes is a couple of A4's worth of prompting. It *IS* gonna revolutionize software development.
 
K1052 said:
You aren't going to be able to raise that kind of money for AI capex if the Chinese just came along and duplicated your model's performance for a tiny fraction of the current spending. There was already increasing nervousness about the huge spending on something that isn't making money (LLMs) and nobody can tell you how it ever will.
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I think the major AI is the same as China. "Outsource your labor to us" 20 years later "Thanks for handling over all your data, we'll take over from here."

Corporations love the idea of replacing high cost engineers with AI, but once OpenAI knows how to do your business, what's stopping them from cutting you out. Also once you've fired all your staff and entrusted OpenAI to do all your labor they can then charge whatever they want.
 
cytg111 said:
Ah.

For one it's still a race and you cant just flip around and use China's instead .. That is a national security issue on the information warfare frontier. If TikTok was a problem then a superior Chinese model is 1000x worse.

This is not a race you can afford to lose.

And how it will make money? I mean I am building fully fledged applications right now and all it takes is a couple of A4's worth of prompting. It *IS* gonna revolutionize software development.
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I didn't say use the Chinese products. What I attempted to convey is that the few big players in the US who dominate could be headed down the wrong very expensive path, especially OpenAI which is gobbling up all the attention.

As for the making money end I don't deny that they have some applications however they are all treating it as a product the general public is going to be breaking down their door to hand them big stacks of cash to get at and....so far not really. Most regular people I talk to seem to be mostly annoyed its being foisted upon them.
 
Per CNN Colombia is sending two planes to pick up the deportees who were supposed to be on the military flights.

Not really what the WH was broadcasting as a total win for them. Especially since Trump demands the spectacle. Doubting what the Trump WH says should not be a new skill that needs to be honed but the press has clearly decided to forget once again.

Screenshot 2025-01-27 at 9.02.54 AM.png
 
Jaskalas said:
Two countries. Who have already demonstrated that they will not help each other, via Ukraine.
The world's tyrants believe they can devour the rest.

And MAGA paves the way....

Donald Trump Pulling US Troops From Europe in Blow to NATO​

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I'm guessing a few more could get nukes pretty rapidly.

Regardless, NATO could nuke DC over Greenland, so they aren't as defenseless as people believe. The UK and France would probably also fuck with our Navy quite a bit with their subs.
 
Indus said:
Yeah it's going to be crazy for the stocks too.

I just put $2100 into Nvidia on Friday.. already expecting down 10%.. but I'll just hold it because I know it's a good company.

Trump is going to create a lot of dips for everything so stuff will be really volatile this year.
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Yep, investment by what the fat orange man babbles out. Get ready.
 
K1052 said:
The new phenomenon is that other leaders for their own domestic political reasons are now making hay out of Trump's combative approach. Foretells a potentially really rocky period of international relations for no real gain.
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Yup. Petro laid out a very nice blueprint for how to handle that dumbfuck. As I said before - no appeasement or he will never learn, just as we've learned throughout history about egotistical dictator strong man wanna bes.
 
Zorba said:
Looks like we are going to have the first Trump stock market crash today. What sucks is I was planning on moving some money out of US stocks today 🙁
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And a week ago after seeing lack luster performance in my growth investment portfolio, I told my adviser to go 100% equities. (I still have 2/3 of my portfolio in a couple of conservative annuities).
 
Zorba said:
The EU has nukes too.
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Yeah, but it's not clear (to me, anyway) to what extent that the UK's nuclear deterrent is independent of the US, i.e. do we need US co-operation to use them? I've seen that point be raised and be debated repeatedly over many years, and never been very clear what the verdict was. It was always entirely theoretical anyway, but all-of-a-sudden it now seems more of a significant issue than it used to be. I mean, it would be very inconvenient, to say the least, if it required US co-operation for us to threaten the US with them. France doesn't have that problem, at least.
 
cytg111 said:
I think China just broke Nvidia a little bit... 🙁
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The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

K1052 said:
Flop sweats breaking out over at OpenAI and Meta today for sure.

That $500B AI investment Trump was crowing about might have a couple issues.
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I don't understand it.. if they used NVIDIA chips.. shouldn't that be GOOD for NVIDIA?

But apparently it's all bad for them but good for other AI companies who do the software stuff (Meta/ Tesla/ Open AI/ MSFT)?
 
Indus said:
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.



I don't understand it.. if they used NVIDIA chips.. shouldn't that be GOOD for NVIDIA?

But apparently it's all bad for them but good for other AI companies who do the software stuff (Meta/ Tesla/ Open AI/ MSFT)?
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Even if they did use nvidia, it's still potentially bad because they would have used a minuscule # of GPUs vs the millions of units the other "leading" AI companies have set up.

If AI can work this well on a small # of devices, a LOT of their sales could disappear.
 
You know I'm not generally rooting for China in most things. But if they can totally undercut the absolutely horrific fascist evil tech broligarchy in this huge wayway, That would be so fun.
 
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