One year ago, anand said the ARM vs x86 war had begun, now?

[Ajay]

^^^ Indeed, Intel is quite late to the game. In terms of mobile they're trying very hard to play catch up.

The whole situation kind of reminds me of Microsoft and search or perhaps even Windows Phone.

Intel is not trying to play catch up - they are playing to win. They are focused and dedicated to dominating this segment. I felt the same as you up till this winter, but the more I've looked into what Intel is doing in this space, the more I've become convinced of their success. As Intel17 just pointed out - many have underestimated the advantage Intel has from being the only IDM in the game. He also points out how the limit of profits in this segment will ultimately tank the ROI for smaller players who just can't scale up like Intel can.

 

[Abwx]

Their process advantage basically gives them a massive head start, and Qualcomm shows what happens when you got the best SoCs.

That is contradicted by :

And Brian Krzanich is pretty sure about their 40M goal.

At 5$/chip it seems that not only it s not difficult to sell thoses quantities but that if prices as low are necessary to lure customers then it means that the technology is not as great as hyped if sold litteraly at waffer cost, it wont even pay the tests and packaging let alone the RD, i see a dangeourous trend here initiated by Intel s CEO who is a man of engeenering not of marketing, it will only help cut more in low end PC sales as X86 tablets buyers will join the cohort that is content with thoses small devices, at best it will postpone a part of PC acquisitions at worst reduce even more its traditional customer base.

 

[ShintaiDK]

But be careful not to take it as MPU shipments. Qualcomm for example only got 1/3rd its revenue from MPUs. And Samsung(+Apple) something like 1/6th. While Intel for example got around 80% from MPUs. And MPU revenue wise Intel sits on 65% of the entire world MPU revenue. And x86 sits on 71%.

Qualcomm and Samsung(+Apple) are each independently bigger than all other ARM manufactors combined in MPU revenue.

MediaTek that got alot of PR lately ships for less than 500M$ in revenue per year in MPUs.

Only Freesscale, Samsung(+Apple) and Qualcomm ships more revenue in MPUs than nVidia.

And its the revenues that will have to pay the R&D bills. Lower the revenue, lower the chance.

 

[witeken]

People are still extrapolating Intel's dominance in PC's where it controls the dominant x86 ISA and gets to choose its competition to dominance in other markets that Intel enters. You'd think that after Itanic, Larrabee, etc, they'd give up by now, but nope, it's still the same song and dance.
Intel is going to compete in mobile, good for them, no one is against it. They are going to be dominant in the part of mobile where their x86 copyright gives them an advantage with legacy apps, namely Windows tablets. Their best hope in mobile is for Windows to win against Android. Of course in that market, Microsoft will want a big piece of the profit pie, leaving less for Intel.
Other parts of mobile are driven by different market dynamics (price vs performance trade offs) that are less favorable to Intel. Performance in phones is getting into the good enough range for current applications, and new applications are likely to be less CPU bound and more optimized for other parts of the SOC where Intel does not excel.

I don't see why Intel wouldn't be able to get into the Android market. By the end of 2014, Intel will have SoCs for every segment.

As Intel17 just pointed out - many have underestimated the advantage Intel has from being the only IDM in the game.

What about Samsung?

 

[witeken]

That is contradicted by :

At 5$/chip it seems that not only it s not difficult to sell thoses quantities but that if prices as low are necessary to lure customers then it means that the technology is not as great as hyped if sold litteraly at waffer cost, it wont even pay the tests and packaging let alone the RD, i see a dangeourous trend here initiated by Intel s CEO who is a man of engeenering not of marketing, it will only help cut more in low end PC sales as X86 tablets buyers will join the cohort that is content with thoses small devices, at best it will postpone a part of PC acquisitions at worst reduce even more its traditional customer base.

Intel's CEO during Q4 conference call:

Sure. This isn't a price reduction as normal price reduction would be; it's not where you are just simply reducing. It's truly a BOM cost equalizer and remember a lot of our 40 million tablets in ’14 will be based on Bay Trail. Bay Trail was originally designed for Avoton-based PC segments and the upper end tablet. And so it’s what we are doing here is doing a BOM cost delta relative to the, what the mid and lower end tablets require.

Their Bill of Materials it's a parity and so it's really is very SKU by SKU dependent. It's not a fixed number out there. We work with each OEM and that’s how I’m comfortable that we’re going to work this out over the next year or so. We work with each OEM depending on what you know are they try getting a high end SKU or midrange SKU or low level SKU? What type of display and graphics and all of those things they want to put in that system. We have a delta involved that we’re working out and so we go and work with them on that and it's literally at that level, SKU by SKU.

 

[blackened23]

People are still extrapolating Intel's dominance in PC's where it controls the dominant x86 ISA and gets to choose its competition to dominance in other markets that Intel enters. You'd think that after Itanic, Larrabee, etc, they'd give up by now, but nope, it's still the same song and dance.
Intel is going to compete in mobile, good for them, no one is against it. They are going to be dominant in the part of mobile where their x86 copyright gives them an advantage with legacy apps, namely Windows tablets. Their best hope in mobile is for Windows to win against Android. Of course in that market, Microsoft will want a big piece of the profit pie, leaving less for Intel.
Other parts of mobile are driven by different market dynamics (price vs performance trade offs) that are less favorable to Intel. Performance in phones is getting into the good enough range for current applications, and new applications are likely to be less CPU bound and more optimized for other parts of the SOC where Intel does not excel.

Wait, so Intel is making SOCs for android but you're saying Microsoft will want a piece of intel's "android pie". How exactly is MS supposed to coax money from intel for making Android SOCs?

Intel is in the business of making computing chips. In decades past, the highest volume was microsoft and windows. That is no longer the case. This is why intel is in Mac devices. Windows? Nope. Computing device? Yes. So now there's android. That means that Intel's SOCs can run android as of just recently. If Microsoft wants a piece of of the android pie, well good luck with that.

It has nothing to do with OS. Intel makes chips for computing devices and always has; get this - believe it or not, intel has made significant volumes of chips that had NOTHING to do with windows. So now we have android being a significant player in the market place. And intel has adjusted accordingly with full android support, and Google has given intel their blessing by putting Haswell Celeron chips in premium Chromebooks such as the chromebook pixel, and numerous other premium designs from acer and asus. It goes without saying that those celeron chromebooks perform significantly faster than their ARM SOC counterparts. Additionally, google has given intel the thumbs up and now all intel SOCs will fully run android x64.

Doesn't sound like intel is tied to the hip to microsoft like you suggest; I still can't believe anyone would suggest this. As i've stated, intel is and always has been in the business of chips for computing devices since day one. Windows or not. All intel has to do is create a competitive product, and now that they recently finalized their android support, they have a significant additional market to sell chips to. Intel isn't invincible of course and they won't dominate this market, but IMO they will make significant inroads. And that's great for mobile consumers because right now, the situation is, qualcomm is nearly the sole player among high end devices.

Again, nobody is stating that intel is going to crush anyone and everyone. Intel is NOT going to win on name alone. They won't be handed anything on a platter. And I get the skepticism out there. But what trumps everything is having a good product that hits all of the marks required, and intel is pushing hard to get all of those pieces in place. In fact, those pieces are in place since android support was just recently finalized - this is huge for intel's SOCs. Everything has fallen into place: excellent SOC performance, excellent performance per watt, competitive pricing, and full android x64 support. If they make a viable product that hits all of the proper metrics, people will buy it. Bay Trail with windows devices sold incredibly well. I suspect the same will happen with BT and BT's successor among android devices. No, it won't dominate. But they will be a good competitor. IMO. We'll see, it'll be interesting to gauge the market 8 months from now.

 

[Arachnotronic]

What about Samsung?

Samsung's entire semiconductor spend on R&D is $3B. This includes DRAM, foundry, and chips.

They can't keep up with QCOM and INTC and frankly don't have to. Samsung is better off keeping a token Exynos effort and fabbing as much as Qualcomm's stuff as possible rather than trying to go head-to-head with QCOM's chip teams.

 

[Ajay]

What about Samsung?

D'oh my bad! Still, Exynos doesn't seem to be a priority for Samsung. They are shipping the latest Galaxy with a Qualcomm SoC. Their mobile devices come first, I assume because they generate much more revenue and/or profits. It seems like Samsung would rather go with another SoC than, in anyway, risk their mobile rollouts.

 

[Arachnotronic]

D'oh my bad! Still, Exynos doesn't seem to be a priority for Samsung. They are shipping the latest Galaxy with a Qualcomm SoC. Their mobile devices come first, I assume because they generate much more revenue and/or profits. It seems like Samsung would rather go with another SoC than, in anyway, risk their mobile rollouts.

Yep. Mobile apps processors are fly-turds compared to devices.

An apps processor is $20 while a Galaxy S5 is $650+.

 

[tential]

For those worrying about Intel's bottom line in this thread, Intel Earning Reports just hit the market like 10 minutes ago. They hit expectations in each bracket and the market is very happy.

I have complete confidence that Intel will be a huge player in the smartphone/tablet market VERY soon.
Don't count intel out as a player who is just trying to compete. Again, I like to quote Conroe, but you can also look at Haswell. When Intel feels that they might be losing market share, they REALLY push hard into the segment.
With Conroe we had a HUGE performance increase when intel's performance crown was threatened.
With Haswell we had a HUGE battery life increase when intel felt that tablet's were eating into their laptop sales due to longer batterylife.
With the next chips coming out 2014/2015, we're going to see SOCs that are EXTREMELY competitive in the market. Intel has all of the pieces to make it happen is in the best position of anyone to enter into the market hard, compete, and maybe dominate (hopefully not to the point where they destroy competition).

I'm not sure why there are so many people doubting intel's future in this market. Out of everyone I could bet against, I wouldn't choose intel.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'm not sure why there are so many people doubting intel's future in this market. Out of everyone I could bet against, I wouldn't choose intel.

They're confusing what they want to see happen (i.e. anybody but Intel win) with what anybody would rationally think will happen.

 

[Abwx]

Intel's CEO during Q4 conference call:

You should have put thoses quotes first and then my post but neverless i ll adress what the CEO is assuming and my first question is what BOM cost reduction is he talking about.??.

Because theses chips were supposed to sell for 25$ what other reduction in BOM cost is there besides thoses 20$ price slash.?..

You d think that they ll provide the plateforms basic designs.?But it wont bring any benefit since the ARM plateforms are aleady mature and cost about nothing to improve from generation to generation, the only result will be to get a dent into the traditional entry level PC/notebooks markets, that is to replace a 40-50$ part with a 5$ part, we ll see the outcome in one year...

 

[blackened23]

For those worrying about Intel's bottom line in this thread, Intel Earning Reports just hit the market like 10 minutes ago. They hit expectations in each bracket and the market is very happy.

I have complete confidence that Intel will be a huge player in the smartphone/tablet market VERY soon.
Don't count intel out as a player who is just trying to compete. Again, I like to quote Conroe, but you can also look at Haswell. When Intel feels that they might be losing market share, they REALLY push hard into the segment.
With Conroe we had a HUGE performance increase when intel's performance crown was threatened.
With Haswell we had a HUGE battery life increase when intel felt that tablet's were eating into their laptop sales due to longer batterylife.
With the next chips coming out 2014/2015, we're going to see SOCs that are EXTREMELY competitive in the market. Intel has all of the pieces to make it happen is in the best position of anyone to enter into the market hard, compete, and maybe dominate (hopefully not to the point where they destroy competition).

I'm not sure why there are so many people doubting intel's future in this market. Out of everyone I could bet against, I wouldn't choose intel.

The ones talking about how bay trail is selling at a loss.....It's always from the extreme fans of that other corporation too. Yeah - Talking about the bottom line. It just cracks me up. I would point out the obvious about the financials of the corporation they personify into some god-like deity, but....nah. Comedy, irony and such. I just get a snicker out of it. We can't have the comedy going away, so I hope keeps getting posted for humor value.

 

[Eug]

I have complete confidence that Intel will be a huge player in the smartphone/tablet market VERY soon.

I don't, if you mean within the next two years, and judging by the next part, it seems you do.

With the next chips coming out 2014/2015, we're going to see SOCs that are EXTREMELY competitive in the market. Intel has all of the pieces to make it happen is in the best position of anyone to enter into the market hard, compete, and maybe dominate (hopefully not to the point where they destroy competition).

I'm not sure why there are so many people doubting intel's future in this market. Out of everyone I could bet against, I wouldn't choose intel.

I predict Intel will get some wins, but will still be a comparatively small player in 2015.

I could see them expanding past that after that, but you OTOH are basically asking for a mobile chip revolution by Intel in two years. That's a pretty tall order, and probably overly optimistic.

 

[witeken]

You should have put thoses quotes first and then my post but neverless i ll adress what the CEO is assuming and my first question is what BOM cost reduction is he talking about.??.

Because theses chips were supposed to sell for 25$ what other reduction in BOM cost is there besides thoses 20$ price slash.?..

You d think that they ll provide the plateforms basic designs.?But it wont bring any benefit since the ARM plateforms are aleady mature and cost about nothing to improve from generation to generation, the only result will be to get a dent into the traditional entry level PC/notebooks markets, that is to replace a 40-50$ part with a 5$ part, we ll see the outcome in one year...

 

[tential]

They're confusing what they want to see happen (i.e. anybody but Intel win) with what anybody would rationally think will happen.

Reading this forum, I always expect more positions on here to be based on facts/reviews. Given it's technology you'd expect people interested in it to be more logical/math type based minds.

Instead, I see the same mentality I would see on a fashion forum in which it's based on feelings.

It's amazing that people on here, who are on the forefont of technology news can't see the telltale signs of intel clearly making moves to break into the mobile sector.
Broadwell for laptops will be a refinement of the already amazing Haswell platform.
BayTrail and it's successor will allow Intel to get into a mobile tablet market for Windows. That's THEIRS. They aren't sharing that with anyone else they don't even have serious competition there.
Then Android Tablets/smartphones they will be competing yes, and this will be the hardest segment for them to really break into. But given their company structure (And I'm much less of a tech knowledge person when it comes to the average person on these forums and I'm much more of a Finance/Business person), I think they're in the BEST position moving forward.

My own guesswork is, intel will be able to compete very will in the tablet market with CherryTrail. A design win for the new Nexus 7 would be a gamechanger and that's what I'm looking for from a business perspective to see whether Intel will be able to get a major foot in the door. A major design win in which we'll see TONS of reviews/consumers have to pick between a design with an intel SOC vs a qualcomm SOC will be the tipping point. That will be the point where everyone will now really have to question what SoC they will be using in their next flagship device.

I could write a couple more paragraphs/pages of opportunities/advantages/market position right now for intel that it's just so hard for me to understand this "Trendy to hate intel" thing that has seemed to happen on this CPU forum.

 

[R0H1T]

The ones talking about how bay trail is selling at a loss.....It's always from the extreme fans of that other corporation too. Some might say fandom of that level is nuts. Yeah - Talking about the bottom line. It just cracks me up. I would point out the obvious about the financials of the corporation they personify into some god-like deity, but....nah. Comedy and such.

And suddenly a design win or two, from Intel in the Android realm, makes them the future ruler in this part of the industry as well aye? Consider what'll happen when their subsidies dry up, I can tell you right here right now that the day that happens all the OEM/ODM will switch back to ARM, unless Intel does the same shenanigans, from the noughties, all over again!

 

[blackened23]

Look at the merits of the product. It's a good product that just recently added android x64 support, has google's blessing, good CPU performance, great performance per watt. Yet despite that it's doomed to fail according to some here. Whatever. Good products apparently never sell, that's what i've learned here today. I've also learned that some want a qualcomm monopoly. That would be fantastic.

Also I've mentioned it before, but I don't expect intel to dominate. I expect them to be a great competitor. There's a difference. One benefits consumers, one doesn't. I expect intel being a great competitor being beneficial for the mobile market despite the nay-sayers.

I really would be interested in finding out if intel did indeed win the google Nexus 2014 tablet. I have to imagine that the nay-sayers won't find much to say if that heavily rumored tidbit turns out to be true. But then they'll just be concerned about intel's financials again. Right? Oh the hilarity.

We can just overlook the fact that Bay Trail sold a buttload of chips for windows tablets. That was an anomaly. That was because intel is doing terrible financially. [major sarcasm].

 

[R0H1T]

Look at the merits of the product. It's a good product that just recently added android x64 support, has google's blessing, good CPU performance, great performance per watt. Yet despite that it's doomed to fail according to some here. Whatever. Good products apparently never sell, that's what i've learned here today.

You know what I've learned this past year on AT forums, that Intel can do no wrong whether they bribe OEM's to put AMD out of business or they charge a grand (or more) for a halo product & certainly no one should ever criticize them for changing a mobo socket every couple of years, the disabled features on the (large) variety of their CPU's already has a separate thread so I'll leave it at that.

Also I've mentioned it before, but I don't expect intel to dominate. I expect them to be a great competitor. There's a difference. One benefits consumers, one doesn't. I expect intel being a great competitor being beneficial for the mobile market despite the nay-sayers.

A competitor is always welcome, like AMD, but if that one entity is just there to undercut the rest using cheap tactics then I certainly would love Intel to go bankrupt, not that they are doing this now but if it ever happens (again) then you can say goodbye to your choices in the mobile arena because that's what Intel has done to us in the PC market.

I really would be interested in finding out if intel did indeed win the google Nexus 2014 tablet. I have to imagine that the nay-sayers won't find much to say if that heavily rumored tidbit turns out to be true. But then they'll just be concerned about intel's financials again. Right? Oh the hilarity.

Google hardly makes any (substantial amount of) money on these devices & LG or ASUS can certainly do without the nexus line themselves, the real test will be going up against Samsung & Apple which control virtually 99% of the profits in the industry.

We can just overlook the fact that Bay Trail sold a buttload of chips for windows tablets. That was an anomaly. That was because intel is doing terrible financially. [major sarcasm]. Alrighty. Whatever you say.

See it's still Windows that sells & not Intel, MS still makes a ton of money on each Android device sold, & should there come a day when ARM/AMD can supplement Windows the way Intel does now then you can bet that MS will drop Intel without a moment's hesitation!

 

[ninaholic37]

Can someone provide me their predictions in this form?

Q1 2013: Intel 0% (Phone), 2% (Tablet)
Q1 2014: Intel 1% (Phone), 5% (Tablet)
Q1 2015: ?
Q1 2016: ?
Q1 2017: ?

I think it would be easier to decipher than these huge paragraphs of texts. :sneaky:

 

[VirtualLarry]

Whatever. Good products apparently never sell, that's what i've learned here today. I've also learned that some want a qualcomm monopoly. That would be fantastic.

Ironic isn't it? AMD had better products than Intel, at certain times in their history, but they didn't sell the way that you would expect that they would, given that they were better product. Some people also wished for an Intel monopoly.

Now with Intel trying to break into mobile, it's nearly the same story all over again, only Intel is playing the part of AMD, and QualComm is playing the part of Intel.

 

[tential]

And suddenly a design win or two, from Intel in the Android realm, makes them the future ruler in this part of the industry as well aye? Consider what'll happen when their subsidies dry up, I can tell you right here right now that the day that happens all the OEM/ODM will switch back to ARM, unless Intel does the same shenanigans, from the noughties, all over again!

Then short the stock if you believe they won't make it into the mobile sector. Their stock price over the next 24 months will be HEAVILY influenced by their mobile sector performance.

Something tells me that while you'll spout gloom and gloom about intel, you certainly won't put money against them. I wouldn't, I'll be putting cash into intel now as I definitely believe they have the right focus as a company moving forward and I believe you'd be insane to bet against them.

There are those who agree with you that aren't optimistic about Intel. But I think those people who agree with you are INCREDIBLY shortsighted. But well, I've following the intel news on CNBC and analysts have stated the same things you've stated.

But I'm sure people were saying the same things that AMD was going to take MAJOR market share from intel during Netburst right before Conroe.

Ironic isn't it? AMD had better products than Intel, at certain times in their history, but they didn't sell the way that you would expect that they would, given that they were better product. Some people also wished for an Intel monopoly.

Now with Intel trying to break into mobile, it's nearly the same story all over again, only Intel is playing the part of AMD, and QualComm is playing the part of Intel.

The major difference is Intel has their brand name, recognition, and a decent product. AMD HAD a decent product, but Intel responded relatively quickly and since then, AMD hasn't been able to take the performance crown back from Intel.

Intel may be playing the part of AMD, but they aren't working with the same disadvantages AMD had to.

 

[R0H1T]

Then short the stock if you believe they won't make it into the mobile sector. Their stock price over the next 24 months will be HEAVILY influenced by their mobile sector performance.

Something tells me that while you'll spout gloom and gloom about intel, you certainly won't put money against them. I wouldn't, I'll be putting cash into intel now as I definitely believe they have the right focus as a company moving forward and I believe you'd be insane to bet against them.

There are those who agree with you that aren't optimistic about Intel. But I think those people who agree with you are INCREDIBLY shortsighted. But well, I've following the intel news on CNBC and analysts have stated the same things you've stated.

But I'm sure people were saying the same things that AMD was going to take MAJOR market share from intel during Netburst right before Conroe.

I don't put my money into stocks anymore, not that I would buy Intel, the 2008 crash has certainly taught me a few things which I'd rather not discuss atm. Anyways the real battle will be between Intel vs Apple/Samsung/Qualcomm/Nvidia in the mobile arena & the rest don't really matter IMO, sure Intel will survive but how long can they sustain these subsidies & who'll pay for that 10nm fab is the real question.

 

[tential]

Can someone provide me their predictions in this form?

Q1 2013: Intel 0% (Phone), 2% (Tablet)
Q1 2014: Intel 1% (Phone), 5% (Tablet)
Q1 2015: ?
Q1 2016: ?
Q1 2017: ?

I think it would be easier to decipher than these huge paragraphs of texts. :sneaky:

Predictions are just that. Predictions. None of us have the access to the information necessary to really make well formulated predictions. We don't have that access to market research/data at all.

All I will say is I expect Intel to steadily gain market share, especially in the tablet market due to basically having a monopoly on Windows OS Tablets moving forward.

What I will consider to be the tipping point or the BREAKTHROUGH point would be a major design win in a Tablet (Nexus 7 for example).

 

[witeken]

Intel Q1 conference call: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2131723-intel-corporation-discusses-q1-2014-results-webcast

A lot of talk about mobile.