Oil thread 9-7-06:Former BP head of Pipeline invokes 5th

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: conjur
Oil Analysts, Wrong Since 2001, End Forecasts of Price Drop
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=...&sid=ayVpj12sAFcw&refer=top_world_news

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street oil analysts have given up calling for lower prices after missing the rallies of the past four years.

New York oil futures will average $60 a barrel in the first quarter of 2006, about $2 more than today, according to the median forecast of 25 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Prices will average $58 in all of 2006, the survey shows.

``Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption,'' said Kevin Norrish, a director of commodities research for Barclays Capital in London. Norrish and colleague Paul Horsnell had the highest and most accurate forecast for prices last year.

Oil averaged $56.67 this year, $15 more than in 2004 and the highest in two decades of New York trading. Crude touched a record $70.85 in 2005, hurting consumer spending and sparking record oil-industry profits.

...

Oil analysts got it wrong this year, predicting that prices would average $40.33 in 2005. Wall Street had forecast that oil would be $26.81 during 2004, the December 2003 survey showed. Instead, crude in New York averaged $41.40 in 2004.

Reminds me of Steve Forbes (and a few on here)..."we'll see 30 before we see 80"! Forbes predicted that oil would be $35 per barrel by mid 2006. Today, oil has rallied on fear of low inventories to over $60 per barrel again (up $2.00 + today).

Another interesting tidbit in all of this oil gouging is that the OPEC oil chief has already said that he expect the world to use 2 million barrels per day less in 2006 than 2005! :shocked:

 

[Engineer]

Oil prices up on lower gas inventories, but oil inventories are up 13% vs same period last year.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Oil prices up on lower gas inventories, but oil inventories are up 13% vs same period last year.

More of that proof it has nothing to do with the Supply Vs Demand Bullsh!t.

 

[dmcowen674]

12-30-2005 Strong China is a threat to United States

BEIJING - China and the United States should increase co-operation on energy issues ranging from crude oil production overseas to civilian nuclear programs, China's top economic planning body said in a statement on its Web site.

The world economy would benefit if China has secure energy supplies, but U.S. concerns about the rise of China's fast-growing economy could lead to restrictive legislation, the commission added.

"Geopolitics may lead to wider restrictions in terms of the relevant American policies, because a stronger China is considered a challenge to the United States," the statement said.

Earlier this year, a political furor in the United States scuttled an $18.5 billion bid by China's top offshore producer CNOOC Ltd. (0883.HK) for America's Unocal Corp. and the fallout raised concerns in China about U.S. investment policies.

Co-operation should be deeper and more efficient, with priority placed on promoting stability in producing nations and secure oil shipping lanes, the National Development and Reform Commission said.
====================

Translation - U.S. and China will be going to War over Oil.

 

[nergee]

"Translation - U.S. and China will be going to War over Oil. "

Good reason to be in Iraq............

 

[Engineer]

Oil seen as 40% higher in 2005.

That's with US inventories up 13% from this same point last year and the OPEC chief stating that he expects oil consumption to drop by 2 million barrels per day next year.

That's also with the resuming of oil from Libya

 

[catnap1972]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Engineer
Oil prices up on lower gas inventories, but oil inventories are up 13% vs same period last year.

More of that proof it has nothing to do with the Supply Vs Demand Bullsh!t.

Prices at the pump are likely going to hit 2.50 again (at least) sometime next month the rate it's going. I guess the admin needed that little bit of consumer confidence from Christmas before resuming the War on the Wallet.

 

[conjur]

The prices were as low as $1.90 here right after Thanksgiving. When I got back from my 2 1/2 week trip to China they were up to $2.25 or so. Then they dropped about $0.20 but now they're back up to $2.35. It's like a damn yoyo.

 

[Chinadefender]

I remember that GS said oil price would rise to $100.

Perhaps when USA attack Iran.

I think China would not care about whether U.S. and China will be going to War over Oil.

Just care about whether USA will attack Iran in 2006.

Do not care whether Bush family gain or lose from the global oil mess.

Just care about when Iraq will regain its oil production capacity.

Those should be really considered, because these are most important in the coming year and affect every common person.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: conjur
The prices were as low as $1.90 here right after Thanksgiving. When I got back from my 2 1/2 week trip to China they were up to $2.25 or so. Then they dropped about $0.20 but now they're back up to $2.35. It's like a damn yoyo.

The latest on CNBC had it that traders feared that the first two weeks of January would be much colder than originally thought. So let's see....season has been very warm so far, oil inventories are up 13% vs last year, OPEC say oil usage may be dropping as much as 2 million barrels per day next year and are considering oil cuts...but prices are rising. Gouging come to mind?

 

[conjur]

Gonna be 60F on Sunday here and a chance of t-storms Sunday night. Won't be hitting the 30s (for highs) until around Thur.

Cold winter? Not here.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: conjur
The prices were as low as $1.90 here right after Thanksgiving. When I got back from my 2 1/2 week trip to China they were up to $2.25 or so. Then they dropped about $0.20 but now they're back up to $2.35. It's like a damn yoyo.

The latest on CNBC had it that traders feared that the first two weeks of January would be much colder than originally thought. So let's see....season has been very warm so far, oil inventories are up 13% vs last year, OPEC say oil usage may be dropping as much as 2 million barrels per day next year and are considering oil cuts...but prices are rising. Gouging come to mind?

I thought he said OPEC production would be down 2MBD, not world output.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: conjur
Gonna be 60F on Sunday here and a chance of t-storms Sunday night. Won't be hitting the 30s (for highs) until around Thur.

Cold winter? Not here.

You live in Kentucky. Does it ever get cold there?

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy

Originally posted by: conjur
Gonna be 60F on Sunday here and a chance of t-storms Sunday night. Won't be hitting the 30s (for highs) until around Thur.

Cold winter? Not here.

You live in Kentucky. Does it ever get cold there?

Quite cold. 12 years ago we hit about -24F after a nice 16-17" snowfall.

Last Dec. 22, we were hit by a foot of snow but big snows like that are about once-per-decade.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: Whoozyerdaddy

Originally posted by: conjur
Gonna be 60F on Sunday here and a chance of t-storms Sunday night. Won't be hitting the 30s (for highs) until around Thur.

Cold winter? Not here.

You live in Kentucky. Does it ever get cold there?

Quite cold. 12 years ago we hit about -24F after a nice 16-17" snowfall.

Last Dec. 22, we were hit by a foot of snow but big snows like that are about once-per-decade.

Ummm... ok. 12 years ago? So once a decade+ it gets cold there. Pardon me while I snicker.




*snicker*

 

[conjur]

Apparently you missed the climatological history in that other thread. You know all those rows of numbers? Those represent average highs (42F, for example). Sunday will be 18F above average.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: conjur
Apparently you missed the climatological history in that other thread. You know all those rows of numbers? Those represent average highs (42F, for example). Sunday will be 18F above average.

18F above average in Kentucky right?

In my part of the world:

Normal 1 °F / -17 °C -18 °F / -27 °C

Tonight
Lows 15 below

Saturday
Highs zero to 10 above

Saturday Night
Lows 5 below to 15 below zero

New Years Day
Highs zero to 5 above zero

Sunday Night
Lows 5 below to 15 below zero

Hmm... Looks pretty normal here. Maybe there is an ozone hole over your house?

 

[JS80]

Well the OP was way off on oil prices. The sky is not falling. I predict 50/barrel end of 2006.

 

[conjur]

Going to be in the 80s in Texas next week. I seem to recall many football games at Texas Stadium in late Dec./early Jan. involving snow, sleet, ice, etc.

 

[Whoozyerdaddy]

Originally posted by: conjur
Going to be in the 80s in Texas next week. I seem to recall many football games at Texas Stadium in late Dec./early Jan. involving snow, sleet, ice, etc.

I seem to remember oranges freezing in Florida every so often too. But I'd hardly call that normal.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: nergee
"Translation - U.S. and China will be going to War over Oil. "

Good reason to be in Iraq............

Bad reason to be in Iraq. Good reason to promote Energy Conservation, Higher Fuel Mileage, Alternative Energy Research, etc.

 

[Specop 007]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Meanwhile the Oil Barons continue to say there is NO shortage of OIL.

The so-called "supply and demand" is all phoney, just as phoney as Republicans are.

Thats where I quit reading.

Surpised mods allowed that bit of trolling.

 

[Vic]

Oil and gas prices should continue to stabilize, with oil in the 50's and gas just below $2/gal.

The Pacific NW is having a normal winter this year, after last year's unusually dry and warmer weather. Right now temps are in the 40s and it's been raining steady the past 2 weeks with no end to the rain in sight in the forecasts for the next 2 weeks. Good news is that Timberline has a base of 82" with 12" new.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: conjur
Going to be in the 80s in Texas next week. I seem to recall many football games at Texas Stadium in late Dec./early Jan. involving snow, sleet, ice, etc.

This is not uncommon for this time of year, we get cold snaps, they usually only last a few days. WE only get one or two cold spells a year, rain and freezing weather is the usual culprit. Snow is far more rare, unless yo are in far north texas.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: conjur
The prices were as low as $1.90 here right after Thanksgiving. When I got back from my 2 1/2 week trip to China they were up to $2.25 or so. Then they dropped about $0.20 but now they're back up to $2.35. It's like a damn yoyo.

The latest on CNBC had it that traders feared that the first two weeks of January would be much colder than originally thought. So let's see....season has been very warm so far, oil inventories are up 13% vs last year, OPEC say oil usage may be dropping as much as 2 million barrels per day next year and are considering oil cuts...but prices are rising. Gouging come to mind?

I thought he said OPEC production would be down 2MBD, not world output.

OPEC chief says "world demand" for oil from OPEC countries to drop. Here's the article.

MOSCOW (AFP) - World demand for crude oil from OPEC countries will drop to around 27.8 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year, around two million bpd lower than current demand levels, the president of the cartel said.